WRs vs Jacksonville Jaguars
As of Week 4 · through 2 games · PPR
Showing the three highest-scoring WRs from each game.
| Wk | Team | Player | Slot | Tgt | Rec | ReYd | ReTD | FPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  CLE | Denzel Boston | WR1 | 4 | 2 | 59 | 1 | 13.9 |
| KC Concepcion | WR2 | 5 | 4 | 43 | 0 | 7.8 | ||
| Jerry Jeudy | WR3 | 4 | 2 | 26 | 0 | 4.6 | ||
| 2 |  DEN | Jaylen Waddle | WR1 | 10 | 8 | 138 | 0 | 21.8 |
| Courtland Sutton | WR2 | 4 | 3 | 25 | 0 | 5.5 | ||
| Troy Franklin | WR3 | 2 | 1 | 27 | 0 | 3.7 | ||
| Average | 4.8 | 3.3 | 53.0 | 0.2 | 9.5 | |||
| Median | 4.0 | 2.5 | 35.0 | 0.0 | 6.7 | |||
| High | 10 | 8 | 138 | 1 | 21.8 | |||
| Low | 2 | 1 | 25 | 0 | 3.7 | |||
Averages are raw, outliers are never removed.
How Ja'Marr Chase should do vs the JaguarsSeason log, the group you pick, and a projection
Season so far, compared with what the group you pick below has done against the Jaguars, plus a projection for this game.
What is this table?
Rows at the top are every game Ja'Marr Chase has played this season, using the same stat columns as the table above.
Compare against picks which group of Jaguars opponents to line them up with: the best WR they faced in each game (1), the second best (2), the third best (3), or all of the top three. Nobody knows which slot Ja'Marr Chase will land in this week, so this is your call, not a guess.
Jaguars avg is the average line of that group. Difference is that minus Ja'Marr Chase's own average: green means the defense gives that slot more than Ja'Marr Chase usually produces.
Projected is Ja'Marr Chase's recent-weighted average scaled by how generous the Jaguars were to the slot you picked. Change the slot and the projected points change, because each slot has a different matchup adjustment. Picking Top 3 uses the usual-role projection.
| Wk | Opp | Tgt | Rec | ReYd | ReTD | FPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | TB | 4 | 2 | 12 | 0 | 3.2 |
| 2 | HOU | 9 | 7 | 75 | 2 | 26.5 |
| Chase avg | 6.5 | 4.5 | 43.5 | 1.0 | 14.8 | |
| Jaguars Top 3 avg | 4.8 | 3.3 | 53.0 | 0.2 | 9.5 | |
| Difference | -1.7 | -1.2 | +9.5 | -0.8 | -5.3 | |
| Projected | 6.0 | 4.1 | 40.1 | 0.9 | 16.5 | |
Difference is what the defense allows minus what Chase averages (green = defense gives up more). Projected stats scale the player's averages by the matchup adjustment, so they are a rough guide.
Start / Sit · Ja'Marr ChaseMedium confidence · 16.5 proj ptsStart
Ja'Marr Chase usually plays as the team's WR2, so the verdict uses the WR2 numbers, not the slot selected above.
- Ja'Marr Chase averages 14.8 PPR points over 2 games (recent-weighted 16.1) and has played as the team's WR2.
- The Jaguars have allowed 6.7 points to WR2s over 2 games (-20% vs league). The model applies 40% of that gap because the sample is small, giving a -8% adjustment.
- Last season's average (19.6) is blended in at 50% weight because this season's sample is small.
- Projection: 16.5 points.
- For reference, a typical weekly starter-level WR scores about 11.8 and a top-tier one about 20.8.
- A statistical model from box scores, Vegas lines, weather and injury tags. It cannot see role changes or in-game events.
Prediction & chance to scoreJa'Marr Chase vs the Jaguars
Prediction for Ja'Marr Chase
Nobody knows which slot Ja'Marr Chase will land in this week, so pick the one you expect. The projection changes because each slot faces a different average from the Jaguars.
I predict about 16.5 points for Ja'Marr Chase if playing as a WR2. Ja'Marr Chase has averaged 14.8 over 2 games, and the Jaguars have given up 6.7 to WR2s (-20% vs the league average of 8.3).
How this projection is built
1. The player. Ja'Marr Chase scored: Wk 1 3.2, Wk 2 26.5. Average 14.8; weighted toward recent games it is 17.9.
2. The defense. Over 2 games, the Jaguars allowed 6.7 points to their opponent's WR2. The league average for that slot is 8.3, so that is -20%.
3. Trusting small samples less. With 2 defensive games, only 40% of the gap is applied, capped at +/-30%. That gives a -8% adjustment (x0.92).
4. Result. 17.9 x 0.92 = 16.5. Switching slots only changes step 2 and 3: the player's own numbers stay the same, but each slot faces a different defensive average.
It is a statistical model, not knowledge of injuries, game script or weather.
Chance to score
Type a point total to see how likely Ja'Marr Chase is to reach it as a WR2.
Why this percentage?
The projection (16.5) is the middle of the range. Fantasy scores swing a lot from game to game, so the model spreads possible scores around it by about 9.9 points, leaning on Ja'Marr Chase's own game-to-game swings once there are several games (and on typical WR swings before that).
Scores are modelled as right-skewed, since a big game is possible but a very negative one is not. The percentage is the share of that spread at or above 16.
With only 2 games of history, treat this as a rough gauge. It gets sharper as the season goes on. It is never lower than 1% or higher than 99%.
InsightsPlain-English takeaways from the table
- top-3 WRs have averaged 3.3 receptions, 53.0 receiving yards and 0.2 receiving TDs per player-game against the Jaguars across 2 games.
- The Jaguars allow 28.6 PPR points to the position per game, -4% versus the league average of 29.8 (ranked 16 of 32, where 1 is most generous). That is a near-average matchup.
- Outlier: Week 2, Jaylen Waddle (21.8 pts, 8 rec, 138 yds) sits far above the other games and pulls the averages up. Average with it vs without it: pts 9.5 vs 7.1; rec 3.3 vs 2.4; yds 53.0 vs 36.0. The table above keeps the raw averages.
- Outlier: Week 2, Troy Franklin (3.7 pts) sits far below the other games and drags the averages down. Average with it vs without it: pts 9.5 vs 10.7. The table above keeps the raw averages.
- 2 of 6 player-games reached 10+ PPR points. Scores range from 3.7 to 21.8 (median 6.7).
- top-3 WRs scored a touchdown in 1 of 6 player-games (17%).
- Small sample: only 2 games so far. Treat these numbers as directional, not settled.
Insights are generated by rules from the table above and recalculate every week.