WRs vs New Orleans Saints
As of Week 13 · through 2 games · PPR
WR2 = the second-highest-scoring WR against Saints in each game, not a fixed depth-chart spot.
| Wk | Team | Player | Tgt | Rec | ReYd | ReTD | FPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  DET | Jameson Williams | 9 | 4 | 45 | 0 | 8.5 |
| 2 |  BAL | Devontez Walker | 2 | 1 | 47 | 0 | 5.7 |
| Average | 5.5 | 2.5 | 46.0 | 0.0 | 7.1 | ||
| Median | 5.5 | 2.5 | 46.0 | 0.0 | 7.1 | ||
| High | 9 | 4 | 47 | 0 | 8.5 | ||
| Low | 2 | 1 | 45 | 0 | 5.7 | ||
Averages are raw, outliers are never removed.
How Christian Watson should do vs the SaintsSeason log, the group you pick, and a projection
Season so far, compared with what the group you pick below has done against the Saints, plus a projection for this game.
What is this table?
Rows at the top are every game Christian Watson has played this season, using the same stat columns as the table above.
Compare against picks which group of Saints opponents to line them up with: the best WR they faced in each game (1), the second best (2), the third best (3), or all of the top three. Nobody knows which slot Christian Watson will land in this week, so this is your call, not a guess.
Saints avg is the average line of that group. Difference is that minus Christian Watson's own average: green means the defense gives that slot more than Christian Watson usually produces.
Projected is Christian Watson's recent-weighted average scaled by how generous the Saints were to the slot you picked. Change the slot and the projected points change, because each slot has a different matchup adjustment. Picking Top 3 uses the usual-role projection.
| Wk | Opp | Tgt | Rec | ReYd | ReTD | FPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | MIN | 8 | 6 | 147 | 2 | 32.7 |
| 2 | NYJ | 11 | 4 | 41 | 1 | 14.1 |
| Watson avg | 9.5 | 5.0 | 94.0 | 1.5 | 23.4 | |
| Saints WR2 avg | 5.5 | 2.5 | 46.0 | 0.0 | 7.1 | |
| Difference | -4.0 | -2.5 | -48.0 | -1.5 | -16.3 | |
| Projected as WR2 | 9.0 | 4.7 | 88.6 | 1.4 | 16.8 | |
Difference is what the defense allows minus what Watson averages (green = defense gives up more). Projected stats scale the player's averages by the matchup adjustment, so they are a rough guide.
Start / Sit · Christian WatsonMedium confidence · 21.3 proj ptsMust Start
Christian Watson usually plays as the team's WR1, so the verdict uses the WR1 numbers, not the slot selected above.
- Christian Watson averages 23.4 PPR points over 2 games (recent-weighted 22.4) and has played as the team's WR1.
- The Saints have allowed 25.3 points to WR1s over 2 games (+49% vs league). The model applies 40% of that gap because the sample is small, giving a +20% adjustment.
- Last season's average (13.2) is blended in at 50% weight because this season's sample is small.
- Projection: 21.3 points.
- For reference, a typical weekly starter-level WR scores about 11.8 and a top-tier one about 20.8.
- A statistical model from box scores, Vegas lines, weather and injury tags. It cannot see role changes or in-game events.
Prediction & chance to scoreChristian Watson vs the Saints
Prediction for Christian Watson
Nobody knows which slot Christian Watson will land in this week, so pick the one you expect. The projection changes because each slot faces a different average from the Saints.
I predict about 21.3 points for Christian Watson if playing as a WR1. Christian Watson has averaged 23.4 over 2 games, and the Saints have given up 25.3 to WR1s (+49% vs the league average of 17.0).
How this projection is built
1. The player. Christian Watson scored: Wk 1 32.7, Wk 2 14.1. Average 23.4; weighted toward recent games it is 17.8.
2. The defense. Over 2 games, the Saints allowed 25.3 points to their opponent's WR1. The league average for that slot is 17.0, so that is +49%.
3. Trusting small samples less. With 2 defensive games, only 40% of the gap is applied, capped at +/-30%. That gives a +20% adjustment (x1.20).
4. Result. 17.8 x 1.20 = 21.3. Switching slots only changes step 2 and 3: the player's own numbers stay the same, but each slot faces a different defensive average.
It is a statistical model, not knowledge of injuries, game script or weather.
Chance to score
Type a point total to see how likely Christian Watson is to reach it as a WR1.
Why this percentage?
The projection (21.3) is the middle of the range. Fantasy scores swing a lot from game to game, so the model spreads possible scores around it by about 12.8 points, leaning on Christian Watson's own game-to-game swings once there are several games (and on typical WR swings before that).
Scores are modelled as right-skewed, since a big game is possible but a very negative one is not. The percentage is the share of that spread at or above 21.
With only 2 games of history, treat this as a rough gauge. It gets sharper as the season goes on. It is never lower than 1% or higher than 99%.
InsightsPlain-English takeaways from the table
- WR2s have averaged 2.5 receptions, 46.0 receiving yards and 0.0 receiving TDs against the Saints across 2 games.
- The Saints allow 7.1 PPR points to WR2s, -14% versus the league average of 8.3 (ranked 17 of 32, where 1 is most generous). That is a tough matchup.
- 0 of 2 games reached 10+ PPR points. Scores range from 5.7 to 8.5 (median 7.1).
- Every WR2 in the sample cleared 40 receiving yards.
- WR2s scored a touchdown in 0 of 2 games (0%).
- Small sample: only 2 games so far. Treat these numbers as directional, not settled.
Insights are generated by rules from the table above and recalculate every week.