WRs vs Philadelphia Eagles
As of Week 9 · through 8 games · PPR
WR2 = the second-highest-scoring WR against Eagles in each game, not a fixed depth-chart spot.
| Wk | Team | Player | Tgt | Rec | ReYd | ReTD | FPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  WAS | Stefon Diggs | 9 | 4 | 55 | 1 | 15.5 |
| 2 |  TEN | Carnell Tate | 5 | 3 | 27 | 0 | 5.7 |
| 3 |  CHI | Luther Burden III | 11 | 7 | 61 | 1 | 19.8 |
| 4 |  LA | Davante Adams | 9 | 4 | 32 | 0 | 7.2 |
| 5 |  JAX | Josh Cameron | 6 | 3 | 43 | 0 | 7.3 |
| 6 |  CAR | Tetairoa McMillan | 9 | 6 | 86 | 0 | 14.6 |
| 7 |  DAL | George Pickens | 6 | 4 | 57 | 1 | 15.7 |
| 8 | WAS | Treylon Burks | 5 | 3 | 81 | 0 | 11.1 |
| Average | 7.5 | 4.3 | 55.3 | 0.4 | 12.1 | ||
| Median | 7.5 | 4.0 | 56.0 | 0.0 | 12.8 | ||
| High | 11 | 7 | 86 | 1 | 19.8 | ||
| Low | 5 | 3 | 27 | 0 | 5.7 | ||
Averages are raw, outliers are never removed.
How Malik Nabers should do vs the EaglesSeason log, the group you pick, and a projection
Season so far, compared with what the group you pick below has done against the Eagles, plus a projection for this game.
What is this table?
Rows at the top are every game Malik Nabers has played this season, using the same stat columns as the table above.
Compare against picks which group of Eagles opponents to line them up with: the best WR they faced in each game (1), the second best (2), the third best (3), or all of the top three. Nobody knows which slot Malik Nabers will land in this week, so this is your call, not a guess.
Eagles avg is the average line of that group. Difference is that minus Malik Nabers's own average: green means the defense gives that slot more than Malik Nabers usually produces.
Projected is Malik Nabers's recent-weighted average scaled by how generous the Eagles were to the slot you picked. Change the slot and the projected points change, because each slot has a different matchup adjustment. Picking Top 3 uses the usual-role projection.
| Wk | Opp | Tgt | Rec | ReYd | ReTD | FPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | DAL | 9 | 6 | 69 | 0 | 12.9 |
| 2 | LA | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1.1 |
| 3 | TEN | 6 | 5 | 26 | 0 | 7.6 |
| 4 | ARI | 7 | 6 | 112 | 1 | 23.2 |
| 5 | WAS | 20 | 11 | 121 | 1 | 29.1 |
| 6 | NO | 15 | 12 | 165 | 0 | 28.5 |
| 7 | HOU | 9 | 7 | 111 | 0 | 18.1 |
| Nabers avg | 10.0 | 6.9 | 86.4 | 0.3 | 17.2 | |
| Eagles WR2 avg | 7.5 | 4.3 | 55.3 | 0.4 | 12.1 | |
| Difference | -2.5 | -2.6 | -31.2 | +0.1 | -5.1 | |
| Projected as WR2 | 12.8 | 8.8 | 110.5 | 0.4 | 23.7 | |
Difference is what the defense allows minus what Nabers averages (green = defense gives up more). Projected stats scale the player's averages by the matchup adjustment, so they are a rough guide.
Start / Sit · Malik NabersGood confidence · 22.5 proj pts10/10 start
Malik Nabers usually plays as the team's WR1, so the verdict uses the WR1 numbers, not the slot selected above.
- Malik Nabers averages 17.2 PPR points over 7 games (recent-weighted 19.8) and has played as the team's WR1.
- The Eagles have allowed 19.7 points to WR1s over 8 games (+15% vs league). The model applies 73% of that gap because the sample is small, giving a +11% adjustment.
- Last season's average (14.3) is blended in at 22% weight because this season's sample is small.
- Game environment -5%: Vegas total 38.5, implied 21.0 points for NYG (league avg 22.6); Favored by 3.5: leaning run-heavy late; Mild weather (59F, 11 mph wind): no weather adjustment.
- QB change: J.J. McCarthy is now throwing (8.4 yds/att vs 6.8 earlier), x1.15.
- Opposing-defense injuries (+0%): Opposing starter Jihaad Campbell (LB) is questionable, which helps the passing game.
- Injury report: Questionable. The projection assumes the player plays.
- Projection: 22.5 points.
- For reference, a typical weekly starter-level WR scores about 12.2 and a top-tier one about 20.9.
- A statistical model from box scores, Vegas lines, weather and injury tags. It cannot see role changes or in-game events.
Prediction & chance to scoreMalik Nabers vs the Eagles
Prediction for Malik Nabers
Nobody knows which slot Malik Nabers will land in this week, so pick the one you expect. The projection changes because each slot faces a different average from the Eagles.
I predict about 20.6 points for Malik Nabers if playing as a WR1. Malik Nabers has averaged 17.2 over 7 games, and the Eagles have given up 19.7 to WR1s (+15% vs the league average of 17.1).
How this projection is built
1. The player. Malik Nabers scored: Wk 1 12.9, Wk 2 1.1, Wk 3 7.6, Wk 4 23.2, Wk 5 29.1, Wk 6 28.5, Wk 7 18.1. Average 17.2; weighted toward recent games it is 18.6.
2. The defense. Over 8 games, the Eagles allowed 19.7 points to their opponent's WR1. The league average for that slot is 17.1, so that is +15%.
3. Trusting small samples less. With 8 defensive games, only 73% of the gap is applied, capped at +/-30%. That gives a +11% adjustment (x1.11).
4. Result. 18.6 x 1.11 = 20.6. Switching slots only changes step 2 and 3: the player's own numbers stay the same, but each slot faces a different defensive average.
It is a statistical model, not knowledge of injuries, game script or weather.
Chance to score
Type a point total to see how likely Malik Nabers is to reach it as a WR1.
Why this percentage?
The projection (20.6) is the middle of the range. Fantasy scores swing a lot from game to game, so the model spreads possible scores around it by about 10.6 points, leaning on Malik Nabers's own game-to-game swings once there are several games (and on typical WR swings before that).
Scores are modelled as right-skewed, since a big game is possible but a very negative one is not. The percentage is the share of that spread at or above 21.
With only 7 games of history, treat this as a rough gauge. It gets sharper as the season goes on. It is never lower than 1% or higher than 99%.
InsightsPlain-English takeaways from the table
- WR2s have averaged 4.3 receptions, 55.3 receiving yards and 0.4 receiving TDs against the Eagles across 8 games.
- The Eagles allow 12.1 PPR points to WR2s, +38% versus the league average of 8.8 (ranked 1 of 32, where 1 is most generous). That is a favorable matchup.
- Outlier: Week 3, Luther Burden III (19.8 pts, 7 rec) sits far above the other games and pulls the averages up. Average with it vs without it: pts 12.1 vs 11.0; rec 4.3 vs 3.9. The table above keeps the raw averages.
- Outlier: Week 6, Tetairoa McMillan (86 yds) sits far above the other games and pulls the averages up. Average with it vs without it: yds 55.3 vs 50.9. The table above keeps the raw averages.
- 5 of 8 games reached 10+ PPR points. Scores range from 5.7 to 19.8 (median 12.8).
- WR2s scored a touchdown in 3 of 8 games (38%).
Insights are generated by rules from the table above and recalculate every week.