WRs vs Pittsburgh Steelers
As of Week 13 · through 2 games · PPR
WR1 = the highest-scoring WR against Steelers in each game, not a fixed depth-chart spot.
| Wk | Team | Player | Tgt | Rec | ReYd | ReTD | FPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  ATL | Drake London | 4 | 2 | 29 | 0 | 5.5 |
| 2 |  NE | Romeo Doubs | 4 | 3 | 96 | 0 | 12.6 |
| Average | 4.0 | 2.5 | 62.5 | 0.0 | 9.1 | ||
| Median | 4.0 | 2.5 | 62.5 | 0.0 | 9.1 | ||
| High | 4 | 3 | 96 | 0 | 12.6 | ||
| Low | 4 | 2 | 29 | 0 | 5.5 | ||
Averages are raw, outliers are never removed.
How Nico Collins should do vs the SteelersSeason log, the group you pick, and a projection
Season so far, compared with what the group you pick below has done against the Steelers, plus a projection for this game.
What is this table?
Rows at the top are every game Nico Collins has played this season, using the same stat columns as the table above.
Compare against picks which group of Steelers opponents to line them up with: the best WR they faced in each game (1), the second best (2), the third best (3), or all of the top three. Nobody knows which slot Nico Collins will land in this week, so this is your call, not a guess.
Steelers avg is the average line of that group. Difference is that minus Nico Collins's own average: green means the defense gives that slot more than Nico Collins usually produces.
Projected is Nico Collins's recent-weighted average scaled by how generous the Steelers were to the slot you picked. Change the slot and the projected points change, because each slot has a different matchup adjustment. Picking Top 3 uses the usual-role projection.
| Wk | Opp | Tgt | Rec | ReYd | ReTD | FPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | BUF | 10 | 7 | 75 | 1 | 21.2 |
| Collins avg | 10.0 | 7.0 | 75.0 | 1.0 | 21.2 | |
| Steelers WR3 avg | 1.5 | 1.0 | 7.5 | 0.0 | 1.8 | |
| Difference | -8.5 | -6.0 | -67.5 | -1.0 | -19.4 | |
| Projected as WR3 | 7.5 | 5.3 | 56.5 | 0.8 | 12.9 | |
Difference is what the defense allows minus what Collins averages (green = defense gives up more). Projected stats scale the player's averages by the matchup adjustment, so they are a rough guide.
Start / Sit · Nico CollinsMedium confidence · 13.9 proj ptsOut
- Nico Collins averages 21.2 PPR points over 1 game (recent-weighted 21.2) and has played as the team's WR1.
- The Steelers have allowed 9.1 points to WR1s over 2 games (-47% vs league). The model applies 40% of that gap because the sample is small, giving a -19% adjustment.
- Last season's average (15.1) is blended in at 67% weight because this season's sample is small.
- Injury report: Out. The projection assumes the player plays.
- Projection: 13.9 points.
- For reference, a typical weekly starter-level WR scores about 11.8 and a top-tier one about 20.8.
- A statistical model from box scores, Vegas lines, weather and injury tags. It cannot see role changes or in-game events.
Prediction & chance to scoreNico Collins vs the Steelers
Prediction for Nico Collins
Nobody knows which slot Nico Collins will land in this week, so pick the one you expect. The projection changes because each slot faces a different average from the Steelers.
I predict about 13.9 points for Nico Collins if playing as a WR1. Nico Collins has averaged 21.2 over 1 game, and the Steelers have given up 9.1 to WR1s (-47% vs the league average of 17.0).
How this projection is built
1. The player. Nico Collins scored: Wk 1 21.2. Average 21.2; weighted toward recent games it is 17.1.
2. The defense. Over 2 games, the Steelers allowed 9.1 points to their opponent's WR1. The league average for that slot is 17.0, so that is -47%.
3. Trusting small samples less. With 2 defensive games, only 40% of the gap is applied, capped at +/-30%. That gives a -19% adjustment (x0.81).
4. Result. 17.1 x 0.81 = 13.9. Switching slots only changes step 2 and 3: the player's own numbers stay the same, but each slot faces a different defensive average.
It is a statistical model, not knowledge of injuries, game script or weather.
Chance to score
Type a point total to see how likely Nico Collins is to reach it as a WR1.
Why this percentage?
The projection (13.9) is the middle of the range. Fantasy scores swing a lot from game to game, so the model spreads possible scores around it by about 8.4 points, leaning on Nico Collins's own game-to-game swings once there are several games (and on typical WR swings before that).
Scores are modelled as right-skewed, since a big game is possible but a very negative one is not. The percentage is the share of that spread at or above 14.
With only 1 game of history, treat this as a rough gauge. It gets sharper as the season goes on. It is never lower than 1% or higher than 99%.
InsightsPlain-English takeaways from the table
- WR1s have averaged 2.5 receptions, 62.5 receiving yards and 0.0 receiving TDs against the Steelers across 2 games.
- The Steelers allow 9.1 PPR points to WR1s, -47% versus the league average of 17.0 (ranked 30 of 32, where 1 is most generous). That is a tough matchup.
- 1 of 2 games reached 10+ PPR points. Scores range from 5.5 to 12.6 (median 9.1).
- WR1s scored a touchdown in 0 of 2 games (0%).
- Small sample: only 2 games so far. Treat these numbers as directional, not settled.
Insights are generated by rules from the table above and recalculate every week.