Nick Folk
K
Atlanta Falcons
This is how Ks have played against the Commanders in the 2026 season.
| Wk | Team | Player | FGM | FGA | 40+ | Lng | XP | FPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  PHI | Jake Elliott | 1 | 1 | 0 | 35 | 3 | 6.0 |
| 2 |  DAL | Brandon Aubrey | 3 | 3 | 2 | 60 | 4 | 16.0 |
| 3 |  SEA | Jason Myers | 1 | 1 | 1 | 57 | 4 | 9.0 |
| 4 |  IND | Spencer Shrader | 3 | 3 | 3 | 52 | 3 | 16.0 |
| 5 |  NYG | Dominic Zvada | 2 | 5 | 2 | 56 | 3 | 13.0 |
| 6 |  SF | Eddy Pineiro | 1 | 1 | 0 | 33 | 2 | 5.0 |
| 8 | PHI | Jake Elliott | 1 | 2 | 1 | 40 | 1 | 5.0 |
| Average | 1.7 | 2.3 | 1.3 | 47.6 | 2.9 | 10.0 | ||
| Median | 1.0 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 52.0 | 3.0 | 9.0 | ||
| High | 3 | 5 | 3 | 60 | 4 | 16.0 | ||
| Low | 1 | 1 | 0 | 33 | 1 | 5.0 | ||
Averages are raw, outliers are never removed. Kicker scoring: FG 3/4/5 by distance, XP 1, missed FG under 40 yds -1.
How Nick Folk should do vs the CommandersSeason log, the group you pick, and a projection
Season so far, compared with what the group you pick below has done against the Commanders, plus a projection for this game.
What is this table?
Rows at the top are every game Nick Folk has played this season, using the same stat columns as the table above.
Compare against picks which group of Commanders opponents to line them up with: the best K they faced in each game (1), the second best (2), the third best (3), or all of the top three. Nobody knows which slot Nick Folk will land in this week, so this is your call, not a guess.
Commanders avg is the average line of that group. Difference is that minus Nick Folk's own average: green means the defense gives that slot more than Nick Folk usually produces.
Projected is Nick Folk's recent-weighted average scaled by how generous the Commanders were to the slot you picked. Change the slot and the projected points change, because each slot has a different matchup adjustment. Picking Top 3 uses the usual-role projection.
| Wk | Opp | FGM | FGA | 40+ | Lng | XP | FPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | PIT | 2 | 4 | 2 | 51 | 1 | 10.0 |
| 2 | CAR | 1 | 2 | 1 | 41 | 0 | 4.0 |
| 3 | GB | 2 | 2 | 1 | 44 | 3 | 10.0 |
| 4 | NO | 1 | 1 | 0 | 29 | 6 | 9.0 |
| 5 | BAL | 3 | 3 | 1 | 48 | 2 | 12.0 |
| 6 | CHI | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1.0 |
| 7 | SF | 3 | 3 | 0 | 39 | 2 | 11.0 |
| 8 | TB | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.0 |
| Folk avg | 1.5 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 31.5 | 1.9 | 7.1 | |
| Commanders K1 avg | 1.7 | 2.3 | 1.3 | 47.6 | 2.9 | 10.0 | |
| Difference | +0.2 | +0.3 | +0.7 | +16.1 | +1.0 | +2.9 | |
| Projected as K1 | 1.7 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 35.0 | 2.1 | 7.3 | |
Difference is what the defense allows minus what Folk averages (green = defense gives up more). Projected stats scale the player's averages by the matchup adjustment, so they are a rough guide.
Start / Sit · Nick FolkGood confidence · 7.3 proj pts1/10 start
- Nick Folk averages 7.1 PPR points over 8 games (recent-weighted 6.2) and has played as the team's K1.
- The Commanders have allowed 10.0 points to K1s over 7 games (+16% vs league). The model applies 70% of that gap because the sample is small, giving a +11% adjustment.
- Last season's average (7.9) is blended in at 20% weight because this season's sample is small.
- Projection: 7.3 points.
- For reference, a typical weekly starter-level K scores about 9.6 and a top-tier one about 14.8.
- A statistical model from box scores, Vegas lines, weather and injury tags. It cannot see role changes or in-game events.
Prediction & chance to scoreNick Folk vs the Commanders
Prediction for Nick Folk
Nobody knows which slot Nick Folk will land in this week, so pick the one you expect. The projection changes because each slot faces a different average from the Commanders.
I predict about 7.3 points for Nick Folk if playing as a K1. Nick Folk has averaged 7.1 over 8 games, and the Commanders have given up 10.0 to K1s (+16% vs the league average of 8.6).
How this projection is built
1. The player. Nick Folk scored: Wk 1 10.0, Wk 2 4.0, Wk 3 10.0, Wk 4 9.0, Wk 5 12.0, Wk 6 1.0, Wk 7 11.0, Wk 8 0.0. Average 7.1; weighted toward recent games it is 6.5.
2. The defense. Over 7 games, the Commanders allowed 10.0 points to their opponent's K1. The league average for that slot is 8.6, so that is +16%.
3. Trusting small samples less. With 7 defensive games, only 70% of the gap is applied, capped at +/-30%. That gives a +11% adjustment (x1.11).
4. Result. 6.5 x 1.11 = 7.3. Switching slots only changes step 2 and 3: the player's own numbers stay the same, but each slot faces a different defensive average.
It is a statistical model, not knowledge of injuries, game script or weather.
Chance to score
Type a point total to see how likely Nick Folk is to reach it as a K1.
Why this percentage?
The projection (7.3) is the middle of the range. Fantasy scores swing a lot from game to game, so the model spreads possible scores around it by about 4.7 points, leaning on Nick Folk's own game-to-game swings once there are several games (and on typical K swings before that).
Scores are modelled as right-skewed, since a big game is possible but a very negative one is not. The percentage is the share of that spread at or above 7.
With only 8 games of history, treat this as a rough gauge. It gets sharper as the season goes on. It is never lower than 1% or higher than 99%.
InsightsPlain-English takeaways from the table
- K1s have averaged 1.7 field goals made, 2.3 field goal attempts and 2.9 extra points against the Commanders across 7 games.
- The Commanders allow 10.0 PPR points to K1s, +16% versus the league average of 8.6 (ranked 7 of 32, where 1 is most generous). That is a favorable matchup.
- Outlier: Week 2, Brandon Aubrey (16.0 pts) sits far above the other games and pulls the averages up. Average with it vs without it: pts 10.0 vs 9.0. The table above keeps the raw averages.
- Outlier: Week 4, Spencer Shrader (16.0 pts) sits far above the other games and pulls the averages up. Average with it vs without it: pts 10.0 vs 9.0. The table above keeps the raw averages.
- 4 of 7 games reached 8+ PPR points. Scores range from 5.0 to 16.0 (median 9.0).
Insights are generated by rules from the table above and recalculate every week.