Zach Ertz
TE
Philadelphia Eagles
- Quarterback Tanner McKee is questionable. Watch the status.
- Teammate DeVonta Smith (a top target) is questionable.
A hurt top target or lead back nudges the projection up a little, since their work tends to shift to teammates. QB and offensive-line flags are shown for context but do not change the number.
This is how TEs have played against the Giants in the 2026 season.
TE1 = the highest-scoring TE against Giants in each game, not a fixed depth-chart spot.
| Wk | Team | Player | Tgt | Rec | ReYd | ReTD | FPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  DAL | Brevyn Spann-Ford | 2 | 2 | 14 | 0 | 3.4 |
| 2 |  LA | Terrance Ferguson | 9 | 6 | 54 | 1 | 17.4 |
| 3 |  TEN | Daniel Bellinger | 2 | 2 | 16 | 0 | 3.6 |
| 4 |  ARI | Trey McBride | 12 | 7 | 31 | 0 | 10.1 |
| 5 |  WAS | Chig Okonkwo | 6 | 4 | 60 | 0 | 10.0 |
| 6 |  NO | Oscar Delp | 2 | 2 | 10 | 0 | 3.0 |
| 7 |  HOU | Dalton Schultz | 6 | 5 | 45 | 0 | 9.5 |
| Average | 5.6 | 4.0 | 32.9 | 0.1 | 8.1 | ||
| Median | 6.0 | 4.0 | 31.0 | 0.0 | 9.5 | ||
| High | 12 | 7 | 60 | 1 | 17.4 | ||
| Low | 2 | 2 | 10 | 0 | 3.0 | ||
Averages are raw, outliers are never removed.
How Zach Ertz should do vs the GiantsSeason log, the group you pick, and a projection
Season so far, compared with what the group you pick below has done against the Giants, plus a projection for this game.
What is this table?
Rows at the top are every game Zach Ertz has played this season, using the same stat columns as the table above.
Compare against picks which group of Giants opponents to line them up with: the best TE they faced in each game (1), the second best (2), the third best (3), or all of the top three. Nobody knows which slot Zach Ertz will land in this week, so this is your call, not a guess.
Giants avg is the average line of that group. Difference is that minus Zach Ertz's own average: green means the defense gives that slot more than Zach Ertz usually produces.
Projected is Zach Ertz's recent-weighted average scaled by how generous the Giants were to the slot you picked. Change the slot and the projected points change, because each slot has a different matchup adjustment. Picking Top 3 uses the usual-role projection.
| Wk | Opp | Tgt | Rec | ReYd | ReTD | FPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | CHI | 2 | 1 | 9 | 0 | 1.9 |
| 4 | LA | 4 | 2 | 13 | 0 | 3.3 |
| 5 | JAX | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.0 |
| Ertz avg | 2.7 | 1.0 | 7.3 | 0.0 | 1.7 | |
| Giants TE1 avg | 5.6 | 4.0 | 32.9 | 0.1 | 8.1 | |
| Difference | +2.9 | +3.0 | +25.5 | +0.1 | +6.4 | |
| Projected as TE1 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 6.2 | 0.0 | 4.1 | |
Difference is what the defense allows minus what Ertz averages (green = defense gives up more). Projected stats scale the player's averages by the matchup adjustment, so they are a rough guide.
Start / Sit · Zach ErtzGood confidence · 3.6 proj pts1/10 start
- Zach Ertz averages 1.7 PPR points over 3 games (recent-weighted 1.6) and has played as the team's TE1.
- The Giants have allowed 8.1 points to TE1s over 7 games (-23% vs league). The model applies 70% of that gap because the sample is small, giving a -16% adjustment.
- Last season's average (9.7) is blended in at 40% weight because this season's sample is small.
- Game environment -10%: Vegas total 38.5, implied 17.5 points for PHI (league avg 22.6); Underdog by 3.5: likely to pass more while trailing; Mild weather (59F, 11 mph wind): no weather adjustment.
- QB change: Tanner McKee is now throwing (6.1 yds/att vs 6.3 earlier), x0.98.
- Teammate injuries (+0%): Teammate DeVonta Smith (a top target) is questionable, which can mean extra looks for Ertz.
- Flag: Quarterback Tanner McKee is questionable. Watch the status.
- Projection: 3.6 points.
- For reference, a typical weekly starter-level TE scores about 13.5 and a top-tier one about 19.5.
- A statistical model from box scores, Vegas lines, weather and injury tags. It cannot see role changes or in-game events.
Prediction & chance to scoreZach Ertz vs the Giants
Prediction for Zach Ertz
Nobody knows which slot Zach Ertz will land in this week, so pick the one you expect. The projection changes because each slot faces a different average from the Giants.
I predict about 4.1 points for Zach Ertz if playing as a TE1. Zach Ertz has averaged 1.7 over 3 games, and the Giants have given up 8.1 to TE1s (-23% vs the league average of 10.5).
How this projection is built
1. The player. Zach Ertz scored: Wk 3 1.9, Wk 4 3.3, Wk 5 0.0. Average 1.7; weighted toward recent games it is 4.8.
2. The defense. Over 7 games, the Giants allowed 8.1 points to their opponent's TE1. The league average for that slot is 10.5, so that is -23%.
3. Trusting small samples less. With 7 defensive games, only 70% of the gap is applied, capped at +/-30%. That gives a -16% adjustment (x0.84).
4. Result. 4.8 x 0.84 = 4.1. Switching slots only changes step 2 and 3: the player's own numbers stay the same, but each slot faces a different defensive average.
It is a statistical model, not knowledge of injuries, game script or weather.
Chance to score
Type a point total to see how likely Zach Ertz is to reach it as a TE1.
Why this percentage?
The projection (4.1) is the middle of the range. Fantasy scores swing a lot from game to game, so the model spreads possible scores around it by about 2.0 points, leaning on Zach Ertz's own game-to-game swings once there are several games (and on typical TE swings before that).
Scores are modelled as right-skewed, since a big game is possible but a very negative one is not. The percentage is the share of that spread at or above 4.
With only 3 games of history, treat this as a rough gauge. It gets sharper as the season goes on. It is never lower than 1% or higher than 99%.
InsightsPlain-English takeaways from the table
- TE1s have averaged 4.0 receptions, 32.9 receiving yards and 0.1 receiving TDs against the Giants across 7 games.
- The Giants allow 8.1 PPR points to TE1s, -23% versus the league average of 10.5 (ranked 27 of 32, where 1 is most generous). That is a tough matchup.
- Outlier: Week 2, Terrance Ferguson (17.4 pts) sits far above the other games and pulls the averages up. Average with it vs without it: pts 8.1 vs 6.6. The table above keeps the raw averages.
- Outlier: Week 4, Trey McBride (7 rec) sits far above the other games and pulls the averages up. Average with it vs without it: rec 4.0 vs 3.5. The table above keeps the raw averages.
- 4 of 7 games reached 7+ PPR points. Scores range from 3.0 to 17.4 (median 9.5).
- TE1s scored a touchdown in 1 of 7 games (14%).
Insights are generated by rules from the table above and recalculate every week.