Jameis Winston
QB
New York Giants▲ Hot
- Top target Malik Nabers is questionable, which can lower the passing game.
A hurt top target or lead back nudges the projection up a little, since their work tends to shift to teammates. QB and offensive-line flags are shown for context but do not change the number.
This is how QBs have played against the Saints in the 2026 season.
| Wk | Team | Player | Cmp | Att | PaYd | PaTD | INT | Car | RuYd | RuTD | FPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  DET | Jared Goff | 26 | 39 | 206 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 16.4 |
| 2 |  BAL | Lamar Jackson | 21 | 31 | 235 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 34 | 0 | 14.8 |
| 3 |  LV | Kirk Cousins | 22 | 33 | 248 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 22.2 |
| 4 |  ATL | Michael Penix Jr. | 15 | 20 | 223 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -2 | 0 | 12.7 |
| 5 |  MIN | Kyler Murray | 24 | 30 | 229 | 1 | 0 | 10 | 51 | 0 | 18.3 |
| Average | 21.6 | 30.6 | 228.2 | 1.6 | 0.2 | 4.2 | 17.6 | 0.0 | 16.9 | ||
| Median | 22.0 | 31.0 | 229.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 3.0 | 3.0 | 0.0 | 16.4 | ||
| High | 26 | 39 | 248 | 3 | 1 | 10 | 51 | 0 | 22.2 | ||
| Low | 15 | 20 | 206 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -2 | 0 | 12.7 | ||
Averages are raw, outliers are never removed.
How Jameis Winston should do vs the SaintsSeason log, the group you pick, and a projection
Season so far, compared with what the group you pick below has done against the Saints, plus a projection for this game.
What is this table?
Rows at the top are every game Jameis Winston has played this season, using the same stat columns as the table above.
Compare against picks which group of Saints opponents to line them up with: the best QB they faced in each game (1), the second best (2), the third best (3), or all of the top three. Nobody knows which slot Jameis Winston will land in this week, so this is your call, not a guess.
Saints avg is the average line of that group. Difference is that minus Jameis Winston's own average: green means the defense gives that slot more than Jameis Winston usually produces.
Projected is Jameis Winston's recent-weighted average scaled by how generous the Saints were to the slot you picked. Change the slot and the projected points change, because each slot has a different matchup adjustment. Picking Top 3 uses the usual-role projection.
| Wk | Opp | Cmp | Att | PaYd | PaTD | INT | Car | RuYd | RuTD | FPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | LA | 11 | 27 | 111 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 2.5 |
| 3 | TEN | 14 | 22 | 118 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 14 | 0 | 6.1 |
| 4 | ARI | 18 | 29 | 250 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 18.0 |
| 5 | WAS | 33 | 54 | 326 | 3 | 0 | 5 | 27 | 0 | 25.7 |
| 6 | NO | 14 | 26 | 152 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 6.5 |
| Winston avg | 18.0 | 31.6 | 191.4 | 1.4 | 1.0 | 2.4 | 9.2 | 0.0 | 11.8 | |
| Saints QB1 avg | 21.6 | 30.6 | 228.2 | 1.6 | 0.2 | 4.2 | 17.6 | 0.0 | 16.9 | |
| Difference | +3.6 | -1.0 | +36.8 | +0.2 | -0.8 | +1.8 | +8.4 | +0.0 | +5.1 | |
Difference is what the defense allows minus what Winston averages (green = defense gives up more). Projected stats scale the player's averages by the matchup adjustment, so they are a rough guide.
Prediction & chance to scoreJameis Winston vs the Saints
Prediction for Jameis Winston
Nobody knows which slot Jameis Winston will land in this week, so pick the one you expect. The projection changes because each slot faces a different average from the Saints.
I predict about 15.4 points for Jameis Winston if playing as a QB1. Jameis Winston has averaged 13.1 over 4 games, and the Saints have given up 16.9 to QB1s (+0% vs the league average of 16.9).
How this projection is built
1. The player. Jameis Winston scored: Wk 2 2.5, Wk 3 6.1, Wk 4 18.0, Wk 5 25.7. Average 13.1; weighted toward recent games it is 15.4.
2. The defense. Over 5 games, the Saints allowed 16.9 points to their opponent's QB1. The league average for that slot is 16.9, so that is +0%.
3. Trusting small samples less. With 5 defensive games, only 63% of the gap is applied, capped at +/-30%. That gives a +0% adjustment (x1.00).
4. Result. 15.4 x 1.00 = 15.4. Switching slots only changes step 2 and 3: the player's own numbers stay the same, but each slot faces a different defensive average.
It is a statistical model, not knowledge of injuries, game script or weather.
Chance to score
Type a point total to see how likely Jameis Winston is to reach it as a QB1.
Why this percentage?
The projection (15.4) is the middle of the range. Fantasy scores swing a lot from game to game, so the model spreads possible scores around it by about 10.2 points, leaning on Jameis Winston's own game-to-game swings once there are several games (and on typical QB swings before that).
Scores are modelled as right-skewed, since a big game is possible but a very negative one is not. The percentage is the share of that spread at or above 15.
With only 4 games of history, treat this as a rough gauge. It gets sharper as the season goes on. It is never lower than 1% or higher than 99%.
InsightsPlain-English takeaways from the table
- QB1s have averaged 228.2 passing yards, 1.6 passing TDs and 17.6 rushing yards against the Saints across 5 games.
- The Saints allow 16.9 PPR points to QB1s, +0% versus the league average of 16.9 (ranked 14 of 32, where 1 is most generous). That is a near-average matchup.
- 3 of 5 games reached 15+ PPR points. Scores range from 12.7 to 22.2 (median 16.4).
- Every QB1 in the sample cleared 200 passing yards.
- QB1s scored a touchdown in 5 of 5 games (100%).
Insights are generated by rules from the table above and recalculate every week.