Stefon Diggs
WR
Washington Commanders
- Teammate Terry McLaurin (a top target) is on IR, so Diggs may see more targets.
A hurt top target or lead back nudges the projection up a little, since their work tends to shift to teammates. QB and offensive-line flags are shown for context but do not change the number.
This is how WRs have played against the Rams in the 2026 season.
WR2 = the second-highest-scoring WR against Rams in each game, not a fixed depth-chart spot.
| Wk | Team | Player | Tgt | Rec | ReYd | ReTD | FPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  SF | Mike Evans | 7 | 6 | 49 | 1 | 16.9 |
| 2 |  NYG | Malachi Fields | 6 | 2 | 30 | 0 | 5.0 |
| 3 |  DEN | Courtland Sutton | 7 | 3 | 46 | 0 | 7.6 |
| 4 |  PHI | Makai Lemon | 6 | 3 | 27 | 0 | 5.7 |
| 5 |  BUF | Keon Coleman | 2 | 1 | 7 | 1 | 7.7 |
| 6 |  ARI | Michael Wilson | 7 | 4 | 32 | 0 | 7.2 |
| 7 |  LV | Jalen Nailor | 5 | 2 | 14 | 0 | 3.4 |
| 8 |  LAC | Quentin Johnston | 4 | 4 | 37 | 0 | 7.7 |
| Average | 5.5 | 3.1 | 30.3 | 0.3 | 7.7 | ||
| Median | 6.0 | 3.0 | 31.0 | 0.0 | 7.4 | ||
| High | 7 | 6 | 49 | 1 | 16.9 | ||
| Low | 2 | 1 | 7 | 0 | 3.4 | ||
Averages are raw, outliers are never removed.
How Stefon Diggs should do vs the RamsSeason log, the group you pick, and a projection
Season so far, compared with what the group you pick below has done against the Rams, plus a projection for this game.
What is this table?
Rows at the top are every game Stefon Diggs has played this season, using the same stat columns as the table above.
Compare against picks which group of Rams opponents to line them up with: the best WR they faced in each game (1), the second best (2), the third best (3), or all of the top three. Nobody knows which slot Stefon Diggs will land in this week, so this is your call, not a guess.
Rams avg is the average line of that group. Difference is that minus Stefon Diggs's own average: green means the defense gives that slot more than Stefon Diggs usually produces.
Projected is Stefon Diggs's recent-weighted average scaled by how generous the Rams were to the slot you picked. Change the slot and the projected points change, because each slot has a different matchup adjustment. Picking Top 3 uses the usual-role projection.
| Wk | Opp | Tgt | Rec | ReYd | ReTD | FPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | PHI | 9 | 4 | 55 | 1 | 15.5 |
| 2 | DAL | 6 | 5 | 47 | 2 | 21.7 |
| 3 | SEA | 7 | 4 | 33 | 0 | 7.3 |
| 4 | IND | 9 | 5 | 35 | 0 | 8.5 |
| 6 | SF | 7 | 6 | 44 | 1 | 16.4 |
| 8 | PHI | 6 | 3 | 38 | 1 | 12.8 |
| Diggs avg | 7.3 | 4.5 | 42.0 | 0.8 | 13.7 | |
| Rams WR2 avg | 5.5 | 3.1 | 30.3 | 0.3 | 7.7 | |
| Difference | -1.8 | -1.4 | -11.8 | -0.6 | -6.0 | |
| Projected as WR2 | 6.7 | 4.1 | 38.1 | 0.8 | 11.9 | |
Difference is what the defense allows minus what Diggs averages (green = defense gives up more). Projected stats scale the player's averages by the matchup adjustment, so they are a rough guide.
Start / Sit · Stefon DiggsGood confidence · 13.2 proj pts7/10 start
- Stefon Diggs averages 13.7 PPR points over 6 games (recent-weighted 13.3) and has played as the team's WR2.
- The Rams have allowed 7.7 points to WR2s over 8 games (-13% vs league). The model applies 73% of that gap because the sample is small, giving a -9% adjustment.
- Last season's average (12.4) is blended in at 25% weight because this season's sample is small.
- Game environment +1%: Vegas total 48.5, implied 22.0 points for WAS (league avg 22.6); Underdog by 4.5: likely to pass more while trailing; Mild weather (61F, 11 mph wind): no weather adjustment.
- QB change: Jayden Daniels is now throwing (6.8 yds/att vs 6.8 earlier), x1.00.
- Opposing-defense injuries (+6%): Opposing starter Trent McDuffie (CB) is questionable, which helps the passing game. Opposing starter Kam Curl (S) is questionable, which helps the passing game.
- Teammate injuries (+4%): Teammate Terry McLaurin (a top target) is on IR, which can mean extra looks for Diggs.
- Projection: 13.2 points.
- For reference, a typical weekly starter-level WR scores about 12.2 and a top-tier one about 20.9.
- A statistical model from box scores, Vegas lines, weather and injury tags. It cannot see role changes or in-game events.
Prediction & chance to scoreStefon Diggs vs the Rams
Prediction for Stefon Diggs
Nobody knows which slot Stefon Diggs will land in this week, so pick the one you expect. The projection changes because each slot faces a different average from the Rams.
I predict about 11.9 points for Stefon Diggs if playing as a WR2. Stefon Diggs has averaged 13.7 over 6 games, and the Rams have given up 7.7 to WR2s (-13% vs the league average of 8.8).
How this projection is built
1. The player. Stefon Diggs scored: Wk 1 15.5, Wk 2 21.7, Wk 3 7.3, Wk 4 8.5, Wk 6 16.4, Wk 8 12.8. Average 13.7; weighted toward recent games it is 13.1.
2. The defense. Over 8 games, the Rams allowed 7.7 points to their opponent's WR2. The league average for that slot is 8.8, so that is -13%.
3. Trusting small samples less. With 8 defensive games, only 73% of the gap is applied, capped at +/-30%. That gives a -9% adjustment (x0.91).
4. Result. 13.1 x 0.91 = 11.9. Switching slots only changes step 2 and 3: the player's own numbers stay the same, but each slot faces a different defensive average.
It is a statistical model, not knowledge of injuries, game script or weather.
Chance to score
Type a point total to see how likely Stefon Diggs is to reach it as a WR2.
Why this percentage?
The projection (11.9) is the middle of the range. Fantasy scores swing a lot from game to game, so the model spreads possible scores around it by about 5.4 points, leaning on Stefon Diggs's own game-to-game swings once there are several games (and on typical WR swings before that).
Scores are modelled as right-skewed, since a big game is possible but a very negative one is not. The percentage is the share of that spread at or above 12.
With only 6 games of history, treat this as a rough gauge. It gets sharper as the season goes on. It is never lower than 1% or higher than 99%.
InsightsPlain-English takeaways from the table
- WR2s have averaged 3.1 receptions, 30.3 receiving yards and 0.3 receiving TDs against the Rams across 8 games.
- The Rams allow 7.7 PPR points to WR2s, -13% versus the league average of 8.8 (ranked 24 of 32, where 1 is most generous). That is a tough matchup.
- Outlier: Week 1, Mike Evans (16.9 pts, 6 rec) sits far above the other games and pulls the averages up. Average with it vs without it: pts 7.7 vs 6.3; rec 3.1 vs 2.7. The table above keeps the raw averages.
- 1 of 8 games reached 10+ PPR points. Scores range from 3.4 to 16.9 (median 7.4).
- WR2s scored a touchdown in 2 of 8 games (25%).
Insights are generated by rules from the table above and recalculate every week.