Darren Waller
TE
Carolina Panthers
This is how TEs have played against the Buccaneers in the 2026 season.
TE1 = the highest-scoring TE against Buccaneers in each game, not a fixed depth-chart spot.
| Wk | Team | Player | Tgt | Rec | ReYd | ReTD | FPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  CIN | Mike Gesicki | 7 | 5 | 78 | 1 | 18.8 |
| 2 |  CLE | Harold Fannin Jr. | 6 | 5 | 54 | 0 | 10.4 |
| 3 |  MIN | T.J. Hockenson | 4 | 2 | 11 | 0 | 3.1 |
| 4 |  GB | Tucker Kraft | 7 | 6 | 42 | 1 | 16.5 |
| 5 |  DAL | Jake Ferguson | 6 | 3 | 19 | 0 | 4.9 |
| 6 |  PIT | Darnell Washington | 6 | 4 | 25 | 1 | 12.5 |
| Average | 6.0 | 4.2 | 38.2 | 0.5 | 11.0 | ||
| Median | 6.0 | 4.5 | 33.5 | 0.5 | 11.4 | ||
| High | 7 | 6 | 78 | 1 | 18.8 | ||
| Low | 4 | 2 | 11 | 0 | 3.1 | ||
Averages are raw, outliers are never removed.
How Darren Waller should do vs the BuccaneersSeason log, the group you pick, and a projection
Season so far, compared with what the group you pick below has done against the Buccaneers, plus a projection for this game.
What is this table?
Rows at the top are every game Darren Waller has played this season, using the same stat columns as the table above.
Compare against picks which group of Buccaneers opponents to line them up with: the best TE they faced in each game (1), the second best (2), the third best (3), or all of the top three. Nobody knows which slot Darren Waller will land in this week, so this is your call, not a guess.
Buccaneers avg is the average line of that group. Difference is that minus Darren Waller's own average: green means the defense gives that slot more than Darren Waller usually produces.
Projected is Darren Waller's recent-weighted average scaled by how generous the Buccaneers were to the slot you picked. Change the slot and the projected points change, because each slot has a different matchup adjustment. Picking Top 3 uses the usual-role projection.
| Wk | Opp | Tgt | Rec | ReYd | ReTD | FPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | CHI | 2 | 2 | 28 | 0 | 4.8 |
| 2 | ATL | 3 | 3 | 33 | 2 | 18.3 |
| 3 | CLE | 8 | 5 | 51 | 0 | 10.1 |
| 4 | DET | 6 | 3 | 36 | 0 | 6.6 |
| 6 | PHI | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.0 |
| 7 | TB | 2 | 1 | 50 | 1 | 12.0 |
| 8 | GB | 2 | 1 | 11 | 0 | 2.1 |
| Waller avg | 3.6 | 2.1 | 29.9 | 0.4 | 7.7 | |
| Buccaneers TE1 avg | 6.0 | 4.2 | 38.2 | 0.5 | 11.0 | |
| Difference | +2.4 | +2.0 | +8.3 | +0.1 | +3.3 | |
Difference is what the defense allows minus what Waller averages (green = defense gives up more). Projected stats scale the player's averages by the matchup adjustment, so they are a rough guide.
Prediction & chance to scoreDarren Waller vs the Buccaneers
Prediction for Darren Waller
Nobody knows which slot Darren Waller will land in this week, so pick the one you expect. The projection changes because each slot faces a different average from the Buccaneers.
I predict about 8.3 points for Darren Waller if playing as a TE1. Darren Waller has averaged 8.0 over 5 games, and the Buccaneers have given up 11.0 to TE1s (+5% vs the league average of 10.5).
How this projection is built
1. The player. Darren Waller scored: Wk 1 4.8, Wk 2 18.3, Wk 3 10.1, Wk 4 6.6, Wk 6 0.0. Average 8.0; weighted toward recent games it is 8.1.
2. The defense. Over 6 games, the Buccaneers allowed 11.0 points to their opponent's TE1. The league average for that slot is 10.5, so that is +5%.
3. Trusting small samples less. With 6 defensive games, only 67% of the gap is applied, capped at +/-30%. That gives a +3% adjustment (x1.03).
4. Result. 8.1 x 1.03 = 8.3. Switching slots only changes step 2 and 3: the player's own numbers stay the same, but each slot faces a different defensive average.
It is a statistical model, not knowledge of injuries, game script or weather.
Chance to score
Type a point total to see how likely Darren Waller is to reach it as a TE1.
Why this percentage?
The projection (8.3) is the middle of the range. Fantasy scores swing a lot from game to game, so the model spreads possible scores around it by about 6.5 points, leaning on Darren Waller's own game-to-game swings once there are several games (and on typical TE swings before that).
Scores are modelled as right-skewed, since a big game is possible but a very negative one is not. The percentage is the share of that spread at or above 8.
With only 5 games of history, treat this as a rough gauge. It gets sharper as the season goes on. It is never lower than 1% or higher than 99%.
InsightsPlain-English takeaways from the table
- TE1s have averaged 4.2 receptions, 38.2 receiving yards and 0.5 receiving TDs against the Buccaneers across 6 games.
- The Buccaneers allow 11.0 PPR points to TE1s, +5% versus the league average of 10.5 (ranked 11 of 32, where 1 is most generous). That is a near-average matchup.
- Outlier: Week 1, Mike Gesicki (18.8 pts, 78 yds) sits far above the other games and pulls the averages up. Average with it vs without it: pts 11.0 vs 9.5; yds 38.2 vs 30.2. The table above keeps the raw averages.
- Outlier: Week 3, T.J. Hockenson (3.1 pts, 11 yds) sits far below the other games and drags the averages down. Average with it vs without it: pts 11.0 vs 12.6; yds 38.2 vs 43.6. The table above keeps the raw averages.
- 4 of 6 games reached 7+ PPR points. Scores range from 3.1 to 18.8 (median 11.4).
- TE1s scored a touchdown in 3 of 6 games (50%).
Insights are generated by rules from the table above and recalculate every week.