Wil Lutz
K
Denver Broncos
This is how Ks have played against the Bills in the 2026 season.
| Wk | Team | Player | FGM | FGA | 40+ | Lng | XP | FPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  HOU | Ka'imi Fairbairn | 1 | 1 | 1 | 58 | 4 | 9.0 |
| 2 |  DET | Jake Bates | 1 | 1 | 0 | 31 | 4 | 7.0 |
| 3 |  LAC | Cameron Dicker | 3 | 4 | 0 | 33 | 1 | 10.0 |
| 4 |  NE | Andy Borregales | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3.0 |
| 5 |  LA | Harrison Mevis | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 4.0 |
| 6 |  LV | Matt Gay | 3 | 3 | 0 | 35 | 3 | 12.0 |
| 8 |  BAL | Tyler Loop | 1 | 2 | 0 | 26 | 1 | 3.0 |
| Average | 1.3 | 1.9 | 0.1 | 26.1 | 2.9 | 6.9 | ||
| Median | 1.0 | 2.0 | 0.0 | 31.0 | 3.0 | 7.0 | ||
| High | 3 | 4 | 1 | 58 | 4 | 12.0 | ||
| Low | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3.0 | ||
Averages are raw, outliers are never removed. Kicker scoring: FG 3/4/5 by distance, XP 1, missed FG under 40 yds -1.
How Wil Lutz should do vs the BillsSeason log, the group you pick, and a projection
Season so far, compared with what the group you pick below has done against the Bills, plus a projection for this game.
What is this table?
Rows at the top are every game Wil Lutz has played this season, using the same stat columns as the table above.
Compare against picks which group of Bills opponents to line them up with: the best K they faced in each game (1), the second best (2), the third best (3), or all of the top three. Nobody knows which slot Wil Lutz will land in this week, so this is your call, not a guess.
Bills avg is the average line of that group. Difference is that minus Wil Lutz's own average: green means the defense gives that slot more than Wil Lutz usually produces.
Projected is Wil Lutz's recent-weighted average scaled by how generous the Bills were to the slot you picked. Change the slot and the projected points change, because each slot has a different matchup adjustment. Picking Top 3 uses the usual-role projection.
| Wk | Opp | FGM | FGA | 40+ | Lng | XP | FPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | KC | 1 | 1 | 0 | 31 | 1 | 4.0 |
| 2 | JAX | 2 | 2 | 1 | 45 | 2 | 9.0 |
| 3 | LA | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2.0 |
| 4 | SF | 2 | 3 | 2 | 52 | 0 | 9.0 |
| 5 | LAC | 3 | 4 | 0 | 36 | 2 | 11.0 |
| 6 | SEA | 1 | 1 | 1 | 53 | 2 | 7.0 |
| 7 | ARI | 3 | 3 | 2 | 48 | 3 | 14.0 |
| 8 | KC | 2 | 2 | 1 | 45 | 2 | 9.0 |
| Lutz avg | 1.8 | 2.1 | 0.9 | 38.8 | 1.8 | 8.1 | |
| Bills K1 avg | 1.3 | 1.9 | 0.1 | 26.1 | 2.9 | 6.9 | |
| Difference | -0.5 | -0.3 | -0.7 | -12.6 | +1.1 | -1.3 | |
| Projected as K1 | 1.5 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 33.2 | 1.5 | 7.6 | |
Difference is what the defense allows minus what Lutz averages (green = defense gives up more). Projected stats scale the player's averages by the matchup adjustment, so they are a rough guide.
Start / Sit · Wil LutzGood confidence · 7.6 proj pts1/10 start
- Wil Lutz averages 8.1 PPR points over 8 games (recent-weighted 9.1) and has played as the team's K1.
- The Bills have allowed 6.9 points to K1s over 7 games (-20% vs league). The model applies 70% of that gap because the sample is small, giving a -14% adjustment.
- Last season's average (7.9) is blended in at 20% weight because this season's sample is small.
- Projection: 7.6 points.
- For reference, a typical weekly starter-level K scores about 9.6 and a top-tier one about 14.8.
- A statistical model from box scores, Vegas lines, weather and injury tags. It cannot see role changes or in-game events.
Prediction & chance to scoreWil Lutz vs the Bills
Prediction for Wil Lutz
Nobody knows which slot Wil Lutz will land in this week, so pick the one you expect. The projection changes because each slot faces a different average from the Bills.
I predict about 7.6 points for Wil Lutz if playing as a K1. Wil Lutz has averaged 8.1 over 8 games, and the Bills have given up 6.9 to K1s (-20% vs the league average of 8.6).
How this projection is built
1. The player. Wil Lutz scored: Wk 1 4.0, Wk 2 9.0, Wk 3 2.0, Wk 4 9.0, Wk 5 11.0, Wk 6 7.0, Wk 7 14.0, Wk 8 9.0. Average 8.1; weighted toward recent games it is 8.9.
2. The defense. Over 7 games, the Bills allowed 6.9 points to their opponent's K1. The league average for that slot is 8.6, so that is -20%.
3. Trusting small samples less. With 7 defensive games, only 70% of the gap is applied, capped at +/-30%. That gives a -14% adjustment (x0.86).
4. Result. 8.9 x 0.86 = 7.6. Switching slots only changes step 2 and 3: the player's own numbers stay the same, but each slot faces a different defensive average.
It is a statistical model, not knowledge of injuries, game script or weather.
Chance to score
Type a point total to see how likely Wil Lutz is to reach it as a K1.
Why this percentage?
The projection (7.6) is the middle of the range. Fantasy scores swing a lot from game to game, so the model spreads possible scores around it by about 3.8 points, leaning on Wil Lutz's own game-to-game swings once there are several games (and on typical K swings before that).
Scores are modelled as right-skewed, since a big game is possible but a very negative one is not. The percentage is the share of that spread at or above 8.
With only 8 games of history, treat this as a rough gauge. It gets sharper as the season goes on. It is never lower than 1% or higher than 99%.
InsightsPlain-English takeaways from the table
- K1s have averaged 1.3 field goals made, 1.9 field goal attempts and 2.9 extra points against the Bills across 7 games.
- The Bills allow 6.9 PPR points to K1s, -20% versus the league average of 8.6 (ranked 26 of 32, where 1 is most generous). That is a tough matchup.
- Outlier: Week 6, Matt Gay (12.0 pts, 3 FG) sits far above the other games and pulls the averages up. Average with it vs without it: pts 6.9 vs 6.0; FG 1.3 vs 1.0. The table above keeps the raw averages.
- Outlier: Week 3, Cameron Dicker (3 FG) sits far above the other games and pulls the averages up. Average with it vs without it: FG 1.3 vs 1.0. The table above keeps the raw averages.
- 3 of 7 games reached 8+ PPR points. Scores range from 3.0 to 12.0 (median 7.0).
Insights are generated by rules from the table above and recalculate every week.