Derrick Henry
RB
Baltimore Ravens▼ Cold
This is how RBs have played against the Bills in the 2026 season.
RB1 = the highest-scoring RB against Bills in each game, not a fixed depth-chart spot.
| Wk | Team | Player | Car | RuYd | RuTD | Tgt | Rec | ReYd | ReTD | FPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  HOU | David Montgomery | 20 | 60 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 19 | 1 | 28.9 |
| 2 |  DET | Jahmyr Gibbs | 16 | 52 | 0 | 8 | 6 | 61 | 1 | 23.3 |
| 3 |  LAC | Keaton Mitchell | 8 | 52 | 0 | 3 | 3 | -5 | 1 | 13.7 |
| 4 |  NE | Rhamondre Stevenson | 13 | 47 | 1 | 5 | 3 | 27 | 0 | 18.4 |
| 5 |  LA | Kyren Williams | 16 | 49 | 1 | 8 | 6 | 27 | 0 | 19.6 |
| 6 |  LV | Ashton Jeanty | 10 | 22 | 1 | 6 | 4 | 36 | 0 | 15.8 |
| Average | 13.8 | 47.0 | 0.8 | 5.5 | 4.2 | 27.5 | 0.5 | 19.9 | ||
| Median | 14.5 | 50.5 | 1.0 | 5.5 | 3.5 | 27.0 | 0.5 | 19.0 | ||
| High | 20 | 60 | 2 | 8 | 6 | 61 | 1 | 28.9 | ||
| Low | 8 | 22 | 0 | 3 | 3 | -5 | 0 | 13.7 | ||
Averages are raw, outliers are never removed.
How Derrick Henry should do vs the BillsSeason log, the group you pick, and a projection
Season so far, compared with what the group you pick below has done against the Bills, plus a projection for this game.
What is this table?
Rows at the top are every game Derrick Henry has played this season, using the same stat columns as the table above.
Compare against picks which group of Bills opponents to line them up with: the best RB they faced in each game (1), the second best (2), the third best (3), or all of the top three. Nobody knows which slot Derrick Henry will land in this week, so this is your call, not a guess.
Bills avg is the average line of that group. Difference is that minus Derrick Henry's own average: green means the defense gives that slot more than Derrick Henry usually produces.
Projected is Derrick Henry's recent-weighted average scaled by how generous the Bills were to the slot you picked. Change the slot and the projected points change, because each slot has a different matchup adjustment. Picking Top 3 uses the usual-role projection.
| Wk | Opp | Car | RuYd | RuTD | Tgt | Rec | ReYd | ReTD | FPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | IND | 24 | 144 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 19 | 0 | 35.3 |
| 2 | NO | 16 | 68 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 19 | 0 | 17.7 |
| 3 | DAL | 26 | 89 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 21.9 |
| 4 | TEN | 23 | 73 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 0 | 15.9 |
| 5 | ATL | 24 | 102 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 18 | 1 | 21.0 |
| 6 | CLE | 17 | 58 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 5.0 |
| 7 | CIN | 17 | 45 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 5.9 |
| 8 | BUF | 11 | 53 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 7 | 0 | 14.0 |
| Henry avg | 19.8 | 79.0 | 1.0 | 1.8 | 1.5 | 9.4 | 0.1 | 17.1 | |
| Bills RB1 avg | 13.8 | 47.0 | 0.8 | 5.5 | 4.2 | 27.5 | 0.5 | 19.9 | |
| Difference | -5.9 | -32.0 | -0.2 | +3.8 | +2.7 | +18.1 | +0.4 | +2.9 | |
Difference is what the defense allows minus what Henry averages (green = defense gives up more). Projected stats scale the player's averages by the matchup adjustment, so they are a rough guide.
Prediction & chance to scoreDerrick Henry vs the Bills
Prediction for Derrick Henry
Nobody knows which slot Derrick Henry will land in this week, so pick the one you expect. The projection changes because each slot faces a different average from the Bills.
I predict about 17.0 points for Derrick Henry if playing as a RB1. Derrick Henry has averaged 17.5 over 7 games, and the Bills have given up 19.9 to RB1s (+25% vs the league average of 16.0).
How this projection is built
1. The player. Derrick Henry scored: Wk 1 35.3, Wk 2 17.7, Wk 3 21.9, Wk 4 15.9, Wk 5 21.0, Wk 6 5.0, Wk 7 5.9. Average 17.5; weighted toward recent games it is 14.6.
2. The defense. Over 6 games, the Bills allowed 19.9 points to their opponent's RB1. The league average for that slot is 16.0, so that is +25%.
3. Trusting small samples less. With 6 defensive games, only 67% of the gap is applied, capped at +/-30%. That gives a +17% adjustment (x1.17).
4. Result. 14.6 x 1.17 = 17.0. Switching slots only changes step 2 and 3: the player's own numbers stay the same, but each slot faces a different defensive average.
It is a statistical model, not knowledge of injuries, game script or weather.
Chance to score
Type a point total to see how likely Derrick Henry is to reach it as a RB1.
Why this percentage?
The projection (17.0) is the middle of the range. Fantasy scores swing a lot from game to game, so the model spreads possible scores around it by about 10.3 points, leaning on Derrick Henry's own game-to-game swings once there are several games (and on typical RB swings before that).
Scores are modelled as right-skewed, since a big game is possible but a very negative one is not. The percentage is the share of that spread at or above 17.
With only 7 games of history, treat this as a rough gauge. It gets sharper as the season goes on. It is never lower than 1% or higher than 99%.
InsightsPlain-English takeaways from the table
- RB1s have averaged 13.8 carries, 47.0 rushing yards and 4.2 receptions against the Bills across 6 games.
- The Bills allow 19.9 PPR points to RB1s, +25% versus the league average of 16.0 (ranked 3 of 32, where 1 is most generous). That is a favorable matchup.
- 6 of 6 games reached 10+ PPR points. Scores range from 13.7 to 28.9 (median 19.0).
- RB1s scored a touchdown in 6 of 6 games (100%).
Insights are generated by rules from the table above and recalculate every week.