Derrick Henry
RB
Baltimore Ravens▼ Cold
This is how RBs have played against the Cowboys in the 2026 season.
RB1 = the highest-scoring RB against Cowboys in each game, not a fixed depth-chart spot.
| Wk | Team | Player | Car | RuYd | RuTD | Tgt | Rec | ReYd | ReTD | FPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  NYG | Cam Skattebo | 18 | 81 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14.1 |
| 2 |  WAS | Rachaad White | 7 | 43 | 0 | 6 | 6 | 40 | 0 | 14.3 |
| Average | 12.5 | 62.0 | 0.5 | 3.0 | 3.0 | 20.0 | 0.0 | 14.2 | ||
| Median | 12.5 | 62.0 | 0.5 | 3.0 | 3.0 | 20.0 | 0.0 | 14.2 | ||
| High | 18 | 81 | 1 | 6 | 6 | 40 | 0 | 14.3 | ||
| Low | 7 | 43 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14.1 | ||
Averages are raw, outliers are never removed.
How Derrick Henry should do vs the CowboysSeason log, the group you pick, and a projection
Season so far, compared with what the group you pick below has done against the Cowboys, plus a projection for this game.
What is this table?
Rows at the top are every game Derrick Henry has played this season, using the same stat columns as the table above.
Compare against picks which group of Cowboys opponents to line them up with: the best RB they faced in each game (1), the second best (2), the third best (3), or all of the top three. Nobody knows which slot Derrick Henry will land in this week, so this is your call, not a guess.
Cowboys avg is the average line of that group. Difference is that minus Derrick Henry's own average: green means the defense gives that slot more than Derrick Henry usually produces.
Projected is Derrick Henry's recent-weighted average scaled by how generous the Cowboys were to the slot you picked. Change the slot and the projected points change, because each slot has a different matchup adjustment. Picking Top 3 uses the usual-role projection.
| Wk | Opp | Car | RuYd | RuTD | Tgt | Rec | ReYd | ReTD | FPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | IND | 24 | 144 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 19 | 0 | 35.3 |
| 2 | NO | 16 | 68 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 19 | 0 | 17.7 |
| 3 | DAL | 26 | 89 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 21.9 |
| 4 | TEN | 23 | 73 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 0 | 15.9 |
| 5 | ATL | 24 | 102 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 18 | 1 | 21.0 |
| 6 | CLE | 17 | 58 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 5.0 |
| 7 | CIN | 17 | 45 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 5.9 |
| 8 | BUF | 11 | 53 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 7 | 0 | 14.0 |
| Henry avg | 19.8 | 79.0 | 1.0 | 1.8 | 1.5 | 9.4 | 0.1 | 17.1 | |
| Cowboys RB1 avg | 12.5 | 62.0 | 0.5 | 3.0 | 3.0 | 20.0 | 0.0 | 14.2 | |
| Difference | -7.3 | -17.0 | -0.5 | +1.3 | +1.5 | +10.6 | -0.1 | -2.9 | |
Difference is what the defense allows minus what Henry averages (green = defense gives up more). Projected stats scale the player's averages by the matchup adjustment, so they are a rough guide.
Prediction & chance to scoreDerrick Henry vs the Cowboys
Prediction for Derrick Henry
Nobody knows which slot Derrick Henry will land in this week, so pick the one you expect. The projection changes because each slot faces a different average from the Cowboys.
I predict about 20.2 points for Derrick Henry if playing as a RB1. Derrick Henry has averaged 26.5 over 2 games, and the Cowboys have given up 14.2 to RB1s (-9% vs the league average of 15.6).
How this projection is built
1. The player. Derrick Henry scored: Wk 1 35.3, Wk 2 17.7. Average 26.5; weighted toward recent games it is 21.0.
2. The defense. Over 2 games, the Cowboys allowed 14.2 points to their opponent's RB1. The league average for that slot is 15.6, so that is -9%.
3. Trusting small samples less. With 2 defensive games, only 40% of the gap is applied, capped at +/-30%. That gives a -3% adjustment (x0.97).
4. Result. 21.0 x 0.97 = 20.2. Switching slots only changes step 2 and 3: the player's own numbers stay the same, but each slot faces a different defensive average.
It is a statistical model, not knowledge of injuries, game script or weather.
Chance to score
Type a point total to see how likely Derrick Henry is to reach it as a RB1.
Why this percentage?
The projection (20.2) is the middle of the range. Fantasy scores swing a lot from game to game, so the model spreads possible scores around it by about 12.1 points, leaning on Derrick Henry's own game-to-game swings once there are several games (and on typical RB swings before that).
Scores are modelled as right-skewed, since a big game is possible but a very negative one is not. The percentage is the share of that spread at or above 20.
With only 2 games of history, treat this as a rough gauge. It gets sharper as the season goes on. It is never lower than 1% or higher than 99%.
InsightsPlain-English takeaways from the table
- RB1s have averaged 12.5 carries, 62.0 rushing yards and 3.0 receptions against the Cowboys across 2 games.
- The Cowboys allow 14.2 PPR points to RB1s, -9% versus the league average of 15.6 (ranked 16 of 32, where 1 is most generous). That is a near-average matchup.
- 2 of 2 games reached 10+ PPR points. Scores range from 14.1 to 14.3 (median 14.2).
- Every RB1 in the sample cleared 40 rushing yards.
- RB1s scored a touchdown in 1 of 2 games (50%).
- Small sample: only 2 games so far. Treat these numbers as directional, not settled.
Insights are generated by rules from the table above and recalculate every week.