Christian McCaffrey
RB
San Francisco 49ersQ
- Teammate Mike Evans (a top target) is questionable.
- Teammate Deebo Samuel Sr. (a top target) is questionable.
A hurt top target or lead back nudges the projection up a little, since their work tends to shift to teammates. QB and offensive-line flags are shown for context but do not change the number.
This is how RBs have played against the Cardinals in the 2026 season.
RB1 = the highest-scoring RB against Cardinals in each game, not a fixed depth-chart spot.
| Wk | Team | Player | Car | RuYd | RuTD | Tgt | Rec | ReYd | ReTD | FPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  LAC | Omarion Hampton | 12 | 43 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8.3 |
| 2 |  SEA | Emanuel Wilson | 21 | 92 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9.2 |
| 3 | SF | Christian McCaffrey | 15 | 75 | 1 | 5 | 4 | 41 | 0 | 21.6 |
| 4 |  NYG | Cam Skattebo | 18 | 58 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 | 7.6 |
| 5 |  DET | Jahmyr Gibbs | 25 | 151 | 2 | 6 | 5 | 56 | 0 | 37.7 |
| 6 |  LA | Blake Corum | 9 | 42 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 18 | 1 | 14.0 |
| 7 |  DEN | RJ Harvey | 3 | 6 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 54 | 1 | 14.0 |
| 8 |  DAL | Javonte Williams | 24 | 56 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 6.7 |
| Average | 15.9 | 65.4 | 0.5 | 2.4 | 1.9 | 22.3 | 0.3 | 14.9 | ||
| Median | 16.5 | 57.0 | 0.0 | 2.0 | 1.5 | 13.0 | 0.0 | 11.6 | ||
| High | 25 | 151 | 2 | 6 | 5 | 56 | 1 | 37.7 | ||
| Low | 3 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6.7 | ||
Averages are raw, outliers are never removed.
How Christian McCaffrey should do vs the CardinalsSeason log, the group you pick, and a projection
Season so far, compared with what the group you pick below has done against the Cardinals, plus a projection for this game.
What is this table?
Rows at the top are every game Christian McCaffrey has played this season, using the same stat columns as the table above.
Compare against picks which group of Cardinals opponents to line them up with: the best RB they faced in each game (1), the second best (2), the third best (3), or all of the top three. Nobody knows which slot Christian McCaffrey will land in this week, so this is your call, not a guess.
Cardinals avg is the average line of that group. Difference is that minus Christian McCaffrey's own average: green means the defense gives that slot more than Christian McCaffrey usually produces.
Projected is Christian McCaffrey's recent-weighted average scaled by how generous the Cardinals were to the slot you picked. Change the slot and the projected points change, because each slot has a different matchup adjustment. Picking Top 3 uses the usual-role projection.
| Wk | Opp | Car | RuYd | RuTD | Tgt | Rec | ReYd | ReTD | FPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | LA | 10 | 68 | 0 | 8 | 5 | 20 | 0 | 13.8 |
| 2 | MIA | 10 | 23 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 43 | 0 | 22.6 |
| 3 | ARI | 15 | 75 | 1 | 5 | 4 | 41 | 0 | 21.6 |
| 4 | DEN | 15 | 52 | 1 | 5 | 3 | 18 | 0 | 16.0 |
| 5 | SEA | 11 | 68 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 15 | 0 | 17.3 |
| 6 | WAS | 16 | 64 | 2 | 10 | 9 | 53 | 0 | 30.7 |
| 7 | ATL | 7 | 39 | 1 | 7 | 6 | 61 | 0 | 22.0 |
| McCaffrey avg | 12.0 | 55.6 | 1.1 | 6.0 | 4.9 | 35.9 | 0.0 | 20.6 | |
| Cardinals RB1 avg | 15.9 | 65.4 | 0.5 | 2.4 | 1.9 | 22.3 | 0.3 | 14.9 | |
| Difference | +3.9 | +9.8 | -0.6 | -3.6 | -3.0 | -13.6 | +0.3 | -5.7 | |
| Projected as RB1 | 11.3 | 52.5 | 1.1 | 5.7 | 4.6 | 33.9 | 0.0 | 21.1 | |
Difference is what the defense allows minus what McCaffrey averages (green = defense gives up more). Projected stats scale the player's averages by the matchup adjustment, so they are a rough guide.
Start / Sit · Christian McCaffreyGood confidence · 21.1 proj pts10/10 start
- Christian McCaffrey averages 20.6 PPR points over 7 games (recent-weighted 21.7) and has played as the team's RB1.
- The Cardinals have allowed 14.9 points to RB1s over 8 games (-8% vs league). The model applies 73% of that gap because the sample is small, giving a -5% adjustment.
- Last season's average (24.5) is blended in at 22% weight because this season's sample is small.
- Injury report: Questionable. The projection assumes the player plays.
- Projection: 21.1 points.
- For reference, a typical weekly starter-level RB scores about 13.1 and a top-tier one about 20.9.
- A statistical model from box scores, Vegas lines, weather and injury tags. It cannot see role changes or in-game events.
Prediction & chance to scoreChristian McCaffrey vs the Cardinals
Prediction for Christian McCaffrey
Nobody knows which slot Christian McCaffrey will land in this week, so pick the one you expect. The projection changes because each slot faces a different average from the Cardinals.
I predict about 21.1 points for Christian McCaffrey if playing as a RB1. Christian McCaffrey has averaged 20.6 over 7 games, and the Cardinals have given up 14.9 to RB1s (-8% vs the league average of 16.1).
How this projection is built
1. The player. Christian McCaffrey scored: Wk 1 13.8, Wk 2 22.6, Wk 3 21.6, Wk 4 16.0, Wk 5 17.3, Wk 6 30.7, Wk 7 22.0. Average 20.6; weighted toward recent games it is 22.3.
2. The defense. Over 8 games, the Cardinals allowed 14.9 points to their opponent's RB1. The league average for that slot is 16.1, so that is -8%.
3. Trusting small samples less. With 8 defensive games, only 73% of the gap is applied, capped at +/-30%. That gives a -5% adjustment (x0.95).
4. Result. 22.3 x 0.95 = 21.1. Switching slots only changes step 2 and 3: the player's own numbers stay the same, but each slot faces a different defensive average.
It is a statistical model, not knowledge of injuries, game script or weather.
Chance to score
Type a point total to see how likely Christian McCaffrey is to reach it as a RB1.
Why this percentage?
The projection (21.1) is the middle of the range. Fantasy scores swing a lot from game to game, so the model spreads possible scores around it by about 8.4 points, leaning on Christian McCaffrey's own game-to-game swings once there are several games (and on typical RB swings before that).
Scores are modelled as right-skewed, since a big game is possible but a very negative one is not. The percentage is the share of that spread at or above 21.
With only 7 games of history, treat this as a rough gauge. It gets sharper as the season goes on. It is never lower than 1% or higher than 99%.
InsightsPlain-English takeaways from the table
- RB1s have averaged 15.9 carries, 65.4 rushing yards and 1.9 receptions against the Cardinals across 8 games.
- The Cardinals allow 14.9 PPR points to RB1s, -8% versus the league average of 16.1 (ranked 22 of 32, where 1 is most generous). That is a near-average matchup.
- Outlier: Week 5, Jahmyr Gibbs (37.7 pts, 25 car, 151 rush yds) sits far above the other games and pulls the averages up. Average with it vs without it: pts 14.9 vs 11.6; car 15.9 vs 14.6; rush yds 65.4 vs 53.1. The table above keeps the raw averages.
- Outlier: Week 7, RJ Harvey (3 car, 6 rush yds) sits far below the other games and drags the averages down. Average with it vs without it: car 15.9 vs 17.7; rush yds 65.4 vs 73.9. The table above keeps the raw averages.
- 4 of 8 games reached 10+ PPR points. Scores range from 6.7 to 37.7 (median 11.6).
- RB1s scored a touchdown in 5 of 8 games (63%).
Insights are generated by rules from the table above and recalculate every week.