Christian McCaffrey
RB
San Francisco 49ersQ
- Teammate Mike Evans (a top target) is questionable.
- Teammate Deebo Samuel Sr. (a top target) is questionable.
A hurt top target or lead back nudges the projection up a little, since their work tends to shift to teammates. QB and offensive-line flags are shown for context but do not change the number.
This is how RBs have played against the Commanders in the 2026 season.
RB1 = the highest-scoring RB against Commanders in each game, not a fixed depth-chart spot.
| Wk | Team | Player | Car | RuYd | RuTD | Tgt | Rec | ReYd | ReTD | FPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  PHI | Saquon Barkley | 15 | 83 | 0 | 2 | 1 | -3 | 0 | 9.0 |
| 2 |  DAL | Javonte Williams | 12 | 30 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 20 | 0 | 8.0 |
| 3 |  SEA | George Holani | 3 | 10 | 0 | 5 | 5 | 48 | 0 | 10.8 |
| 4 |  IND | Jonathan Taylor | 20 | 95 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 22.7 |
| 5 |  NYG | Cam Skattebo | 13 | 59 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 12 | 0 | 7.1 |
| Average | 12.6 | 55.4 | 0.4 | 3.6 | 2.4 | 15.8 | 0.0 | 11.5 | ||
| Median | 13.0 | 59.0 | 0.0 | 4.0 | 2.0 | 12.0 | 0.0 | 9.0 | ||
| High | 20 | 95 | 2 | 5 | 5 | 48 | 0 | 22.7 | ||
| Low | 3 | 10 | 0 | 2 | 1 | -3 | 0 | 7.1 | ||
Averages are raw, outliers are never removed.
How Christian McCaffrey should do vs the CommandersSeason log, the group you pick, and a projection
Season so far, compared with what the group you pick below has done against the Commanders, plus a projection for this game.
What is this table?
Rows at the top are every game Christian McCaffrey has played this season, using the same stat columns as the table above.
Compare against picks which group of Commanders opponents to line them up with: the best RB they faced in each game (1), the second best (2), the third best (3), or all of the top three. Nobody knows which slot Christian McCaffrey will land in this week, so this is your call, not a guess.
Commanders avg is the average line of that group. Difference is that minus Christian McCaffrey's own average: green means the defense gives that slot more than Christian McCaffrey usually produces.
Projected is Christian McCaffrey's recent-weighted average scaled by how generous the Commanders were to the slot you picked. Change the slot and the projected points change, because each slot has a different matchup adjustment. Picking Top 3 uses the usual-role projection.
| Wk | Opp | Car | RuYd | RuTD | Tgt | Rec | ReYd | ReTD | FPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | LA | 10 | 68 | 0 | 8 | 5 | 20 | 0 | 13.8 |
| 2 | MIA | 10 | 23 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 43 | 0 | 22.6 |
| 3 | ARI | 15 | 75 | 1 | 5 | 4 | 41 | 0 | 21.6 |
| 4 | DEN | 15 | 52 | 1 | 5 | 3 | 18 | 0 | 16.0 |
| 5 | SEA | 11 | 68 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 15 | 0 | 17.3 |
| 6 | WAS | 16 | 64 | 2 | 10 | 9 | 53 | 0 | 30.7 |
| 7 | ATL | 7 | 39 | 1 | 7 | 6 | 61 | 0 | 22.0 |
| McCaffrey avg | 12.0 | 55.6 | 1.1 | 6.0 | 4.9 | 35.9 | 0.0 | 20.6 | |
| Commanders RB1 avg | 12.6 | 55.4 | 0.4 | 3.6 | 2.4 | 15.8 | 0.0 | 11.5 | |
| Difference | +0.6 | -0.2 | -0.7 | -2.4 | -2.5 | -20.1 | +0.0 | -9.1 | |
Difference is what the defense allows minus what McCaffrey averages (green = defense gives up more). Projected stats scale the player's averages by the matchup adjustment, so they are a rough guide.
Prediction & chance to scoreChristian McCaffrey vs the Commanders
Prediction for Christian McCaffrey
Nobody knows which slot Christian McCaffrey will land in this week, so pick the one you expect. The projection changes because each slot faces a different average from the Commanders.
I predict about 16.5 points for Christian McCaffrey if playing as a RB1. Christian McCaffrey has averaged 18.3 over 5 games, and the Commanders have given up 11.5 to RB1s (-28% vs the league average of 16.1).
How this projection is built
1. The player. Christian McCaffrey scored: Wk 1 13.8, Wk 2 22.6, Wk 3 21.6, Wk 4 16.0, Wk 5 17.3. Average 18.3; weighted toward recent games it is 20.0.
2. The defense. Over 5 games, the Commanders allowed 11.5 points to their opponent's RB1. The league average for that slot is 16.1, so that is -28%.
3. Trusting small samples less. With 5 defensive games, only 63% of the gap is applied, capped at +/-30%. That gives a -18% adjustment (x0.82).
4. Result. 20.0 x 0.82 = 16.5. Switching slots only changes step 2 and 3: the player's own numbers stay the same, but each slot faces a different defensive average.
It is a statistical model, not knowledge of injuries, game script or weather.
Chance to score
Type a point total to see how likely Christian McCaffrey is to reach it as a RB1.
Why this percentage?
The projection (16.5) is the middle of the range. Fantasy scores swing a lot from game to game, so the model spreads possible scores around it by about 6.6 points, leaning on Christian McCaffrey's own game-to-game swings once there are several games (and on typical RB swings before that).
Scores are modelled as right-skewed, since a big game is possible but a very negative one is not. The percentage is the share of that spread at or above 16.
With only 5 games of history, treat this as a rough gauge. It gets sharper as the season goes on. It is never lower than 1% or higher than 99%.
InsightsPlain-English takeaways from the table
- RB1s have averaged 12.6 carries, 55.4 rushing yards and 2.4 receptions against the Commanders across 5 games.
- The Commanders allow 11.5 PPR points to RB1s, -28% versus the league average of 16.1 (ranked 30 of 32, where 1 is most generous). That is a tough matchup.
- Outlier: Week 4, Jonathan Taylor (22.7 pts, 20 car, 95 rush yds) sits far above the other games and pulls the averages up. Average with it vs without it: pts 11.5 vs 8.7; car 12.6 vs 10.8; rush yds 55.4 vs 45.5. The table above keeps the raw averages.
- Outlier: Week 3, George Holani (3 car, 10 rush yds) sits far below the other games and drags the averages down. Average with it vs without it: car 12.6 vs 15.0; rush yds 55.4 vs 66.8. The table above keeps the raw averages.
- 2 of 5 games reached 10+ PPR points. Scores range from 7.1 to 22.7 (median 9.0).
- RB1s scored a touchdown in 1 of 5 games (20%).
Insights are generated by rules from the table above and recalculate every week.