Kendrick Bourne
WR
Arizona CardinalsIR
- Teammate Michael Wilson (a top target) is questionable.
A hurt top target or lead back nudges the projection up a little, since their work tends to shift to teammates. QB and offensive-line flags are shown for context but do not change the number.
This is how WRs have played against the Broncos in the 2026 season.
WR2 = the second-highest-scoring WR against Broncos in each game, not a fixed depth-chart spot.
| Wk | Team | Player | Tgt | Rec | ReYd | ReTD | FPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  KC | Xavier Worthy | 6 | 3 | 18 | 0 | 4.8 |
| 2 |  JAX | Brian Thomas Jr. | 8 | 3 | 40 | 0 | 7.0 |
| 3 |  LA | Konata Mumpfield | 8 | 4 | 93 | 1 | 19.3 |
| 4 |  SF | Mike Evans | 8 | 5 | 76 | 0 | 12.6 |
| 5 |  LAC | Tre Harris | 4 | 2 | 16 | 0 | 3.6 |
| 6 |  SEA | Rashid Shaheed | 8 | 5 | 66 | 0 | 11.8 |
| Average | 7.0 | 3.7 | 51.5 | 0.2 | 9.9 | ||
| Median | 8.0 | 3.5 | 53.0 | 0.0 | 9.4 | ||
| High | 8 | 5 | 93 | 1 | 19.3 | ||
| Low | 4 | 2 | 16 | 0 | 3.6 | ||
Averages are raw, outliers are never removed.
How Kendrick Bourne should do vs the BroncosSeason log, the group you pick, and a projection
Season so far, compared with what the group you pick below has done against the Broncos, plus a projection for this game.
What is this table?
Rows at the top are every game Kendrick Bourne has played this season, using the same stat columns as the table above.
Compare against picks which group of Broncos opponents to line them up with: the best WR they faced in each game (1), the second best (2), the third best (3), or all of the top three. Nobody knows which slot Kendrick Bourne will land in this week, so this is your call, not a guess.
Broncos avg is the average line of that group. Difference is that minus Kendrick Bourne's own average: green means the defense gives that slot more than Kendrick Bourne usually produces.
Projected is Kendrick Bourne's recent-weighted average scaled by how generous the Broncos were to the slot you picked. Change the slot and the projected points change, because each slot has a different matchup adjustment. Picking Top 3 uses the usual-role projection.
| Wk | Opp | Tgt | Rec | ReYd | ReTD | FPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | LAC | 8 | 8 | 75 | 0 | 15.5 |
| 2 | SEA | 3 | 2 | 11 | 0 | 3.1 |
| 3 | SF | 3 | 2 | 22 | 0 | 4.2 |
| 5 | DET | 8 | 5 | 70 | 0 | 12.0 |
| 6 | LA | 8 | 5 | 47 | 0 | 9.7 |
| 7 | DEN | 6 | 3 | 9 | 0 | 3.9 |
| 8 | DAL | 2 | 1 | 29 | 0 | 3.9 |
| Bourne avg | 5.4 | 3.7 | 37.6 | 0.0 | 7.5 | |
| Broncos WR2 avg | 7.0 | 3.7 | 51.5 | 0.2 | 9.9 | |
| Difference | +1.6 | -0.0 | +13.9 | +0.2 | +2.4 | |
Difference is what the defense allows minus what Bourne averages (green = defense gives up more). Projected stats scale the player's averages by the matchup adjustment, so they are a rough guide.
Prediction & chance to scoreKendrick Bourne vs the Broncos
Prediction for Kendrick Bourne
Nobody knows which slot Kendrick Bourne will land in this week, so pick the one you expect. The projection changes because each slot faces a different average from the Broncos.
I predict about 8.8 points for Kendrick Bourne if playing as a WR2. Kendrick Bourne has averaged 8.9 over 5 games, and the Broncos have given up 9.9 to WR2s (+11% vs the league average of 8.9).
How this projection is built
1. The player. Kendrick Bourne scored: Wk 1 15.5, Wk 2 3.1, Wk 3 4.2, Wk 5 12.0, Wk 6 9.7. Average 8.9; weighted toward recent games it is 8.2.
2. The defense. Over 6 games, the Broncos allowed 9.9 points to their opponent's WR2. The league average for that slot is 8.9, so that is +11%.
3. Trusting small samples less. With 6 defensive games, only 67% of the gap is applied, capped at +/-30%. That gives a +7% adjustment (x1.07).
4. Result. 8.2 x 1.07 = 8.8. Switching slots only changes step 2 and 3: the player's own numbers stay the same, but each slot faces a different defensive average.
It is a statistical model, not knowledge of injuries, game script or weather.
Chance to score
Type a point total to see how likely Kendrick Bourne is to reach it as a WR2.
Why this percentage?
The projection (8.8) is the middle of the range. Fantasy scores swing a lot from game to game, so the model spreads possible scores around it by about 5.2 points, leaning on Kendrick Bourne's own game-to-game swings once there are several games (and on typical WR swings before that).
Scores are modelled as right-skewed, since a big game is possible but a very negative one is not. The percentage is the share of that spread at or above 9.
With only 5 games of history, treat this as a rough gauge. It gets sharper as the season goes on. It is never lower than 1% or higher than 99%.
InsightsPlain-English takeaways from the table
- WR2s have averaged 3.7 receptions, 51.5 receiving yards and 0.2 receiving TDs against the Broncos across 6 games.
- The Broncos allow 9.9 PPR points to WR2s, +11% versus the league average of 8.9 (ranked 9 of 32, where 1 is most generous). That is a favorable matchup.
- Outlier: Week 3, Konata Mumpfield (19.3 pts, 93 yds) sits far above the other games and pulls the averages up. Average with it vs without it: pts 9.9 vs 8.0; yds 51.5 vs 43.2. The table above keeps the raw averages.
- Outlier: Week 5, Tre Harris (3.6 pts, 16 yds) sits far below the other games and drags the averages down. Average with it vs without it: pts 9.9 vs 11.1; yds 51.5 vs 58.6. The table above keeps the raw averages.
- 3 of 6 games reached 10+ PPR points. Scores range from 3.6 to 19.3 (median 9.4).
- WR2s scored a touchdown in 1 of 6 games (17%).
Insights are generated by rules from the table above and recalculate every week.