Mack Hollins
WR
New England PatriotsIR
- Teammate Hunter Henry (a top target) is questionable.
A hurt top target or lead back nudges the projection up a little, since their work tends to shift to teammates. QB and offensive-line flags are shown for context but do not change the number.
This is how WRs have played against the Steelers in the 2026 season.
WR2 = the second-highest-scoring WR against Steelers in each game, not a fixed depth-chart spot.
| Wk | Team | Player | Tgt | Rec | ReYd | ReTD | FPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  ATL | Jahan Dotson | 3 | 1 | 19 | 0 | 2.9 |
| Average | 3.0 | 1.0 | 19.0 | 0.0 | 2.9 | ||
| Median | 3.0 | 1.0 | 19.0 | 0.0 | 2.9 | ||
| High | 3 | 1 | 19 | 0 | 2.9 | ||
| Low | 3 | 1 | 19 | 0 | 2.9 | ||
Averages are raw, outliers are never removed.
How Mack Hollins should do vs the SteelersSeason log, the group you pick, and a projection
Season so far, compared with what the group you pick below has done against the Steelers, plus a projection for this game.
What is this table?
Rows at the top are every game Mack Hollins has played this season, using the same stat columns as the table above.
Compare against picks which group of Steelers opponents to line them up with: the best WR they faced in each game (1), the second best (2), the third best (3), or all of the top three. Nobody knows which slot Mack Hollins will land in this week, so this is your call, not a guess.
Steelers avg is the average line of that group. Difference is that minus Mack Hollins's own average: green means the defense gives that slot more than Mack Hollins usually produces.
Projected is Mack Hollins's recent-weighted average scaled by how generous the Steelers were to the slot you picked. Change the slot and the projected points change, because each slot has a different matchup adjustment. Picking Top 3 uses the usual-role projection.
| Wk | Opp | Tgt | Rec | ReYd | ReTD | FPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | SEA | 5 | 4 | 51 | 0 | 9.1 |
| 2 | PIT | 2 | 2 | 18 | 0 | 3.8 |
| 3 | JAX | 9 | 6 | 87 | 0 | 14.7 |
| 4 | BUF | 4 | 3 | 53 | 0 | 8.3 |
| Hollins avg | 5.0 | 3.8 | 52.3 | 0.0 | 9.0 | |
| Steelers WR2 avg | 3.0 | 1.0 | 19.0 | 0.0 | 2.9 | |
| Difference | -2.0 | -2.8 | -33.3 | +0.0 | -6.1 | |
Difference is what the defense allows minus what Hollins averages (green = defense gives up more). Projected stats scale the player's averages by the matchup adjustment, so they are a rough guide.
Prediction & chance to scoreMack Hollins vs the Steelers
Prediction for Mack Hollins
Nobody knows which slot Mack Hollins will land in this week, so pick the one you expect. The projection changes because each slot faces a different average from the Steelers.
I predict about 7.1 points for Mack Hollins if playing as a WR2. Mack Hollins has averaged 9.1 over 1 game, and the Steelers have given up 2.9 to WR2s (-65% vs the league average of 8.2).
How this projection is built
1. The player. Mack Hollins scored: Wk 1 9.1. Average 9.1; weighted toward recent games it is 8.4.
2. The defense. Over 1 game, the Steelers allowed 2.9 points to their opponent's WR2. The league average for that slot is 8.2, so that is -65%.
3. Trusting small samples less. With 1 defensive game, only 25% of the gap is applied, capped at +/-30%. That gives a -16% adjustment (x0.84).
4. Result. 8.4 x 0.84 = 7.1. Switching slots only changes step 2 and 3: the player's own numbers stay the same, but each slot faces a different defensive average.
It is a statistical model, not knowledge of injuries, game script or weather.
Chance to score
Type a point total to see how likely Mack Hollins is to reach it as a WR2.
Why this percentage?
The projection (7.1) is the middle of the range. Fantasy scores swing a lot from game to game, so the model spreads possible scores around it by about 4.2 points, leaning on Mack Hollins's own game-to-game swings once there are several games (and on typical WR swings before that).
Scores are modelled as right-skewed, since a big game is possible but a very negative one is not. The percentage is the share of that spread at or above 7.
With only 1 game of history, treat this as a rough gauge. It gets sharper as the season goes on. It is never lower than 1% or higher than 99%.
InsightsPlain-English takeaways from the table
- WR2s have averaged 1.0 receptions, 19.0 receiving yards and 0.0 receiving TDs against the Steelers across 1 game.
- The Steelers allow 2.9 PPR points to WR2s, -65% versus the league average of 8.2 (ranked 31 of 32, where 1 is most generous). That is a tough matchup.
- WR2s scored a touchdown in 0 of 1 games (0%).
- Small sample: only 1 game so far. Treat these numbers as directional, not settled.
Insights are generated by rules from the table above and recalculate every week.