Austin Ekeler
RB
Washington Commanders
- Teammate Terry McLaurin (a top target) is on IR, so Ekeler may see more targets.
- Backfield mate Jacory Croskey-Merritt is on IR, so Ekeler could see more carries.
A hurt top target or lead back nudges the projection up a little, since their work tends to shift to teammates. QB and offensive-line flags are shown for context but do not change the number.
This is how RBs have played against the 49ers in the 2026 season.
RB2 = the second-highest-scoring RB against 49ers in each game, not a fixed depth-chart spot.
| Wk | Team | Player | Car | RuYd | RuTD | Tgt | Rec | ReYd | ReTD | FPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  LA | Blake Corum | 10 | 54 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5.4 |
| 2 |  MIA | DJ Herman | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 18 | 0 | 2.8 |
| 3 |  ARI | Tyler Allgeier | 2 | -1 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 10 | 0 | 4.9 |
| 4 |  DEN | Tyler Badie | 2 | 7 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 32 | 0 | 7.9 |
| 5 |  SEA | George Holani | 4 | 7 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 24 | 0 | 5.1 |
| Average | 3.6 | 13.4 | 0.0 | 2.6 | 2.2 | 16.8 | 0.0 | 5.2 | ||
| Median | 2.0 | 7.0 | 0.0 | 3.0 | 2.0 | 18.0 | 0.0 | 5.1 | ||
| High | 10 | 54 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 32 | 0 | 7.9 | ||
| Low | 0 | -1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.8 | ||
Averages are raw, outliers are never removed.
How Austin Ekeler should do vs the 49ersSeason log, the group you pick, and a projection
Season so far, compared with what the group you pick below has done against the 49ers, plus a projection for this game.
What is this table?
Rows at the top are every game Austin Ekeler has played this season, using the same stat columns as the table above.
Compare against picks which group of 49ers opponents to line them up with: the best RB they faced in each game (1), the second best (2), the third best (3), or all of the top three. Nobody knows which slot Austin Ekeler will land in this week, so this is your call, not a guess.
49ers avg is the average line of that group. Difference is that minus Austin Ekeler's own average: green means the defense gives that slot more than Austin Ekeler usually produces.
Projected is Austin Ekeler's recent-weighted average scaled by how generous the 49ers were to the slot you picked. Change the slot and the projected points change, because each slot has a different matchup adjustment. Picking Top 3 uses the usual-role projection.
| Wk | Opp | Car | RuYd | RuTD | Tgt | Rec | ReYd | ReTD | FPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | IND | 4 | 29 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 11 | 0 | 5.0 |
| 5 | NYG | 3 | -1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 15 | 0 | 2.4 |
| 6 | SF | 1 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 2.7 |
| 8 | PHI | 8 | 36 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5.6 |
| Ekeler avg | 4.0 | 16.8 | 0.0 | 1.3 | 1.0 | 7.5 | 0.0 | 3.9 | |
| 49ers RB2 avg | 3.6 | 13.4 | 0.0 | 2.6 | 2.2 | 16.8 | 0.0 | 5.2 | |
| Difference | -0.4 | -3.3 | +0.0 | +1.4 | +1.2 | +9.3 | +0.0 | +1.3 | |
Difference is what the defense allows minus what Ekeler averages (green = defense gives up more). Projected stats scale the player's averages by the matchup adjustment, so they are a rough guide.
Prediction & chance to scoreAustin Ekeler vs the 49ers
Prediction for Austin Ekeler
Nobody knows which slot Austin Ekeler will land in this week, so pick the one you expect. The projection changes because each slot faces a different average from the 49ers.
I predict about 3.9 points for Austin Ekeler if playing as a RB2. Austin Ekeler has averaged 3.7 over 2 games, and the 49ers have given up 5.2 to RB2s (+13% vs the league average of 4.6).
How this projection is built
1. The player. Austin Ekeler scored: Wk 4 5.0, Wk 5 2.4. Average 3.7; weighted toward recent games it is 3.6.
2. The defense. Over 5 games, the 49ers allowed 5.2 points to their opponent's RB2. The league average for that slot is 4.6, so that is +13%.
3. Trusting small samples less. With 5 defensive games, only 63% of the gap is applied, capped at +/-30%. That gives a +8% adjustment (x1.08).
4. Result. 3.6 x 1.08 = 3.9. Switching slots only changes step 2 and 3: the player's own numbers stay the same, but each slot faces a different defensive average.
It is a statistical model, not knowledge of injuries, game script or weather.
Chance to score
Type a point total to see how likely Austin Ekeler is to reach it as a RB2.
Why this percentage?
The projection (3.9) is the middle of the range. Fantasy scores swing a lot from game to game, so the model spreads possible scores around it by about 2.3 points, leaning on Austin Ekeler's own game-to-game swings once there are several games (and on typical RB swings before that).
Scores are modelled as right-skewed, since a big game is possible but a very negative one is not. The percentage is the share of that spread at or above 4.
With only 2 games of history, treat this as a rough gauge. It gets sharper as the season goes on. It is never lower than 1% or higher than 99%.
InsightsPlain-English takeaways from the table
- RB2s have averaged 3.6 carries, 13.4 rushing yards and 2.2 receptions against the 49ers across 5 games.
- The 49ers allow 5.2 PPR points to RB2s, +13% versus the league average of 4.6 (ranked 8 of 32, where 1 is most generous). That is a favorable matchup.
- Outlier: Week 1, Blake Corum (10 car, 54 rush yds) sits far above the other games and pulls the averages up. Average with it vs without it: car 3.6 vs 2.0; rush yds 13.4 vs 3.3. The table above keeps the raw averages.
- 0 of 5 games reached 10+ PPR points. Scores range from 2.8 to 7.9 (median 5.1).
- RB2s scored a touchdown in 0 of 5 games (0%).
Insights are generated by rules from the table above and recalculate every week.