Alvin Kamara
RB
New Orleans SaintsQ
This is how RBs have played against the Browns in the 2026 season.
RB2 = the second-highest-scoring RB against Browns in each game, not a fixed depth-chart spot.
| Wk | Team | Player | Car | RuYd | RuTD | Tgt | Rec | ReYd | ReTD | FPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  JAX | Ameer Abdullah | 4 | 32 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4.2 |
| 2 |  TB | Kenny Gainwell | 2 | 10 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 5 | 0 | 4.5 |
| 3 |  CAR | AJ Dillon | 4 | 16 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -2 | 0 | 2.4 |
| 4 |  PIT | Travis Homer | 2 | -1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -0.1 |
| 5 |  NYJ | Isaiah Davis | 2 | 8 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 9 | 0 | 2.7 |
| 6 |  BAL | Justice Hill | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 9 | 0 | 3.9 |
| 7 |  TEN | Michael Carter | 3 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 | 2.4 |
| 8 | PIT | Rico Dowdle | 15 | 56 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11.6 |
| Average | 4.0 | 16.0 | 0.1 | 1.5 | 1.3 | 3.5 | 0.0 | 3.9 | ||
| Median | 2.5 | 9.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 2.5 | 0.0 | 3.3 | ||
| High | 15 | 56 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 9 | 0 | 11.6 | ||
| Low | 0 | -1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 0 | -0.1 | ||
Averages are raw, outliers are never removed.
How Alvin Kamara should do vs the BrownsSeason log, the group you pick, and a projection
Season so far, compared with what the group you pick below has done against the Browns, plus a projection for this game.
What is this table?
Rows at the top are every game Alvin Kamara has played this season, using the same stat columns as the table above.
Compare against picks which group of Browns opponents to line them up with: the best RB they faced in each game (1), the second best (2), the third best (3), or all of the top three. Nobody knows which slot Alvin Kamara will land in this week, so this is your call, not a guess.
Browns avg is the average line of that group. Difference is that minus Alvin Kamara's own average: green means the defense gives that slot more than Alvin Kamara usually produces.
Projected is Alvin Kamara's recent-weighted average scaled by how generous the Browns were to the slot you picked. Change the slot and the projected points change, because each slot has a different matchup adjustment. Picking Top 3 uses the usual-role projection.
| Wk | Opp | Car | RuYd | RuTD | Tgt | Rec | ReYd | ReTD | FPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | BAL | 9 | 15 | 0 | 6 | 5 | 7 | 0 | 7.2 |
| 3 | LV | 9 | 36 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 5.1 |
| 4 | ATL | 7 | 23 | 2 | 7 | 5 | 35 | 0 | 22.8 |
| 5 | MIN | 3 | 12 | 0 | 2 | 2 | -6 | 0 | 2.6 |
| 6 | NYG | 7 | 34 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 35 | 1 | 14.9 |
| 7 | PIT | 6 | 5 | 0 | 7 | 7 | 57 | 0 | 13.2 |
| Kamara avg | 6.8 | 20.8 | 0.3 | 4.5 | 3.7 | 22.2 | 0.2 | 11.0 | |
| Browns RB2 avg | 4.0 | 16.0 | 0.1 | 1.5 | 1.3 | 3.5 | 0.0 | 3.9 | |
| Difference | -2.8 | -4.8 | -0.2 | -3.0 | -2.4 | -18.7 | -0.2 | -7.0 | |
| Projected as RB2 | 5.7 | 17.4 | 0.3 | 3.8 | 3.1 | 18.6 | 0.1 | 9.2 | |
Difference is what the defense allows minus what Kamara averages (green = defense gives up more). Projected stats scale the player's averages by the matchup adjustment, so they are a rough guide.
Start / Sit · Alvin KamaraGood confidence · 9.6 proj pts5/10 start
- Alvin Kamara averages 11.0 PPR points over 6 games (recent-weighted 11.6) and has played as the team's RB2.
- The Browns have allowed 3.9 points to RB2s over 8 games (-22% vs league). The model applies 73% of that gap because the sample is small, giving a -16% adjustment.
- Last season's average (9.2) is blended in at 25% weight because this season's sample is small.
- Game environment +2%: Vegas total 42.5, implied 22.8 points for NO (league avg 22.6); Favored by 3: leaning run-heavy late; Indoors: no weather effect, a small boost for passing and kicking.
- Opposing-defense injuries (+2%): Opposing starter Quincy Williams (LB) is questionable, which helps the passing game. Opposing starter Carson Schwesinger (LB) is questionable, which helps the passing game.
- Injury report: Questionable. The projection assumes the player plays.
- Projection: 9.6 points.
- For reference, a typical weekly starter-level RB scores about 13.1 and a top-tier one about 20.9.
- A statistical model from box scores, Vegas lines, weather and injury tags. It cannot see role changes or in-game events.
Prediction & chance to scoreAlvin Kamara vs the Browns
Prediction for Alvin Kamara
Nobody knows which slot Alvin Kamara will land in this week, so pick the one you expect. The projection changes because each slot faces a different average from the Browns.
I predict about 9.2 points for Alvin Kamara if playing as a RB2. Alvin Kamara has averaged 11.0 over 6 games, and the Browns have given up 3.9 to RB2s (-22% vs the league average of 5.1).
How this projection is built
1. The player. Alvin Kamara scored: Wk 2 7.2, Wk 3 5.1, Wk 4 22.8, Wk 5 2.6, Wk 6 14.9, Wk 7 13.2. Average 11.0; weighted toward recent games it is 11.0.
2. The defense. Over 8 games, the Browns allowed 3.9 points to their opponent's RB2. The league average for that slot is 5.1, so that is -22%.
3. Trusting small samples less. With 8 defensive games, only 73% of the gap is applied, capped at +/-30%. That gives a -16% adjustment (x0.84).
4. Result. 11.0 x 0.84 = 9.2. Switching slots only changes step 2 and 3: the player's own numbers stay the same, but each slot faces a different defensive average.
It is a statistical model, not knowledge of injuries, game script or weather.
Chance to score
Type a point total to see how likely Alvin Kamara is to reach it as a RB2.
Why this percentage?
The projection (9.2) is the middle of the range. Fantasy scores swing a lot from game to game, so the model spreads possible scores around it by about 7.5 points, leaning on Alvin Kamara's own game-to-game swings once there are several games (and on typical RB swings before that).
Scores are modelled as right-skewed, since a big game is possible but a very negative one is not. The percentage is the share of that spread at or above 9.
With only 6 games of history, treat this as a rough gauge. It gets sharper as the season goes on. It is never lower than 1% or higher than 99%.
InsightsPlain-English takeaways from the table
- RB2s have averaged 4.0 carries, 16.0 rushing yards and 1.3 receptions against the Browns across 8 games.
- The Browns allow 3.9 PPR points to RB2s, -22% versus the league average of 5.1 (ranked 30 of 32, where 1 is most generous). That is a tough matchup.
- Outlier: Week 8, Rico Dowdle (11.6 pts, 15 car, 56 rush yds) sits far above the other games and pulls the averages up. Average with it vs without it: pts 3.9 vs 2.9; car 4.0 vs 2.4; rush yds 16.0 vs 10.3. The table above keeps the raw averages.
- 1 of 8 games reached 10+ PPR points. Scores range from -0.1 to 11.6 (median 3.3).
- RB2s scored a touchdown in 1 of 8 games (13%).
Insights are generated by rules from the table above and recalculate every week.