Courtland Sutton
WR
Denver Broncos
- Teammate RJ Harvey (a top target) is on IR, so Sutton may see more targets.
A hurt top target or lead back nudges the projection up a little, since their work tends to shift to teammates. QB and offensive-line flags are shown for context but do not change the number.
This is how WRs have played against the Rams in the 2026 season.
WR2 = the second-highest-scoring WR against Rams in each game, not a fixed depth-chart spot.
| Wk | Team | Player | Tgt | Rec | ReYd | ReTD | FPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  SF | Mike Evans | 7 | 6 | 49 | 1 | 16.9 |
| 2 |  NYG | Malachi Fields | 6 | 2 | 30 | 0 | 5.0 |
| Average | 6.5 | 4.0 | 39.5 | 0.5 | 10.9 | ||
| Median | 6.5 | 4.0 | 39.5 | 0.5 | 10.9 | ||
| High | 7 | 6 | 49 | 1 | 16.9 | ||
| Low | 6 | 2 | 30 | 0 | 5.0 | ||
Averages are raw, outliers are never removed.
How Courtland Sutton should do vs the RamsSeason log, the group you pick, and a projection
Season so far, compared with what the group you pick below has done against the Rams, plus a projection for this game.
What is this table?
Rows at the top are every game Courtland Sutton has played this season, using the same stat columns as the table above.
Compare against picks which group of Rams opponents to line them up with: the best WR they faced in each game (1), the second best (2), the third best (3), or all of the top three. Nobody knows which slot Courtland Sutton will land in this week, so this is your call, not a guess.
Rams avg is the average line of that group. Difference is that minus Courtland Sutton's own average: green means the defense gives that slot more than Courtland Sutton usually produces.
Projected is Courtland Sutton's recent-weighted average scaled by how generous the Rams were to the slot you picked. Change the slot and the projected points change, because each slot has a different matchup adjustment. Picking Top 3 uses the usual-role projection.
| Wk | Opp | Tgt | Rec | ReYd | ReTD | FPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | KC | 5 | 2 | 11 | 0 | 3.1 |
| 2 | JAX | 4 | 3 | 25 | 0 | 5.5 |
| 3 | LA | 7 | 3 | 46 | 0 | 7.6 |
| 4 | SF | 6 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 1.4 |
| 5 | LAC | 3 | 2 | 18 | 1 | 9.8 |
| 6 | SEA | 3 | 2 | 19 | 0 | 3.9 |
| 7 | ARI | 5 | 3 | 45 | 0 | 7.5 |
| 8 | KC | 4 | 4 | 53 | 0 | 9.3 |
| Sutton avg | 4.6 | 2.5 | 27.6 | 0.1 | 6.0 | |
| Rams WR2 avg | 6.5 | 4.0 | 39.5 | 0.5 | 10.9 | |
| Difference | +1.9 | +1.5 | +11.9 | +0.4 | +4.9 | |
Difference is what the defense allows minus what Sutton averages (green = defense gives up more). Projected stats scale the player's averages by the matchup adjustment, so they are a rough guide.
Prediction & chance to scoreCourtland Sutton vs the Rams
Prediction for Courtland Sutton
Nobody knows which slot Courtland Sutton will land in this week, so pick the one you expect. The projection changes because each slot faces a different average from the Rams.
I predict about 9.9 points for Courtland Sutton if playing as a WR2. Courtland Sutton has averaged 4.3 over 2 games, and the Rams have given up 10.9 to WR2s (+34% vs the league average of 8.2).
How this projection is built
1. The player. Courtland Sutton scored: Wk 1 3.1, Wk 2 5.5. Average 4.3; weighted toward recent games it is 8.7.
2. The defense. Over 2 games, the Rams allowed 10.9 points to their opponent's WR2. The league average for that slot is 8.2, so that is +34%.
3. Trusting small samples less. With 2 defensive games, only 40% of the gap is applied, capped at +/-30%. That gives a +14% adjustment (x1.14).
4. Result. 8.7 x 1.14 = 9.9. Switching slots only changes step 2 and 3: the player's own numbers stay the same, but each slot faces a different defensive average.
It is a statistical model, not knowledge of injuries, game script or weather.
Chance to score
Type a point total to see how likely Courtland Sutton is to reach it as a WR2.
Why this percentage?
The projection (9.9) is the middle of the range. Fantasy scores swing a lot from game to game, so the model spreads possible scores around it by about 5.9 points, leaning on Courtland Sutton's own game-to-game swings once there are several games (and on typical WR swings before that).
Scores are modelled as right-skewed, since a big game is possible but a very negative one is not. The percentage is the share of that spread at or above 10.
With only 2 games of history, treat this as a rough gauge. It gets sharper as the season goes on. It is never lower than 1% or higher than 99%.
InsightsPlain-English takeaways from the table
- WR2s have averaged 4.0 receptions, 39.5 receiving yards and 0.5 receiving TDs against the Rams across 2 games.
- The Rams allow 10.9 PPR points to WR2s, +34% versus the league average of 8.2 (ranked 6 of 32, where 1 is most generous). That is a favorable matchup.
- 1 of 2 games reached 10+ PPR points. Scores range from 5.0 to 16.9 (median 10.9).
- Every WR2 in the sample cleared 30 receiving yards.
- WR2s scored a touchdown in 1 of 2 games (50%).
- Small sample: only 2 games so far. Treat these numbers as directional, not settled.
Insights are generated by rules from the table above and recalculate every week.