Mike Gesicki
TE
Cincinnati Bengals
This is how TEs have played against the Colts in the 2026 season.
TE1 = the highest-scoring TE against Colts in each game, not a fixed depth-chart spot.
| Wk | Team | Player | Tgt | Rec | ReYd | ReTD | FPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  BAL | Mark Andrews | 6 | 4 | 49 | 0 | 8.9 |
| 2 |  KC | Travis Kelce | 11 | 9 | 101 | 1 | 25.1 |
| 3 |  HOU | Foster Moreau | 4 | 2 | 7 | 1 | 8.7 |
| 4 |  WAS | Chig Okonkwo | 4 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 2.5 |
| 5 |  PIT | Pat Freiermuth | 7 | 5 | 44 | 2 | 21.5 |
| 6 |  TEN | Daniel Bellinger | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.0 |
| 7 |  MIN | T.J. Hockenson | 5 | 4 | 35 | 1 | 13.5 |
| 8 |  JAX | Nate Boerkircher | 1 | 1 | 31 | 1 | 10.1 |
| Average | 5.0 | 3.4 | 34.0 | 0.8 | 11.3 | ||
| Median | 4.5 | 3.0 | 33.0 | 1.0 | 9.5 | ||
| High | 11 | 9 | 101 | 2 | 25.1 | ||
| Low | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.0 | ||
Averages are raw, outliers are never removed.
How Mike Gesicki should do vs the ColtsSeason log, the group you pick, and a projection
Season so far, compared with what the group you pick below has done against the Colts, plus a projection for this game.
What is this table?
Rows at the top are every game Mike Gesicki has played this season, using the same stat columns as the table above.
Compare against picks which group of Colts opponents to line them up with: the best TE they faced in each game (1), the second best (2), the third best (3), or all of the top three. Nobody knows which slot Mike Gesicki will land in this week, so this is your call, not a guess.
Colts avg is the average line of that group. Difference is that minus Mike Gesicki's own average: green means the defense gives that slot more than Mike Gesicki usually produces.
Projected is Mike Gesicki's recent-weighted average scaled by how generous the Colts were to the slot you picked. Change the slot and the projected points change, because each slot has a different matchup adjustment. Picking Top 3 uses the usual-role projection.
| Wk | Opp | Tgt | Rec | ReYd | ReTD | FPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | TB | 7 | 5 | 78 | 1 | 18.8 |
| 3 | PIT | 3 | 3 | 37 | 1 | 12.7 |
| 4 | JAX | 5 | 3 | 40 | 1 | 13.0 |
| 5 | MIA | 2 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 7.4 |
| 7 | BAL | 1 | 1 | 6 | 1 | 7.6 |
| 8 | TEN | 6 | 4 | 76 | 1 | 17.6 |
| Gesicki avg | 4.0 | 2.8 | 40.2 | 1.0 | 12.8 | |
| Colts TE1 avg | 5.0 | 3.4 | 34.0 | 0.8 | 11.3 | |
| Difference | +1.0 | +0.5 | -6.2 | -0.3 | -1.6 | |
| Projected as TE1 | 4.2 | 3.0 | 42.2 | 1.1 | 11.5 | |
Difference is what the defense allows minus what Gesicki averages (green = defense gives up more). Projected stats scale the player's averages by the matchup adjustment, so they are a rough guide.
Start / Sit · Mike GesickiGood confidence · 11.5 proj pts5/10 start
- Mike Gesicki averages 12.8 PPR points over 6 games (recent-weighted 12.6) and has played as the team's TE1.
- The Colts have allowed 11.3 points to TE1s over 8 games (+7% vs league). The model applies 73% of that gap because the sample is small, giving a +5% adjustment.
- Last season's average (5.9) is blended in at 25% weight because this season's sample is small.
- Projection: 11.5 points.
- For reference, a typical weekly starter-level TE scores about 13.5 and a top-tier one about 19.5.
- A statistical model from box scores, Vegas lines, weather and injury tags. It cannot see role changes or in-game events.
Prediction & chance to scoreMike Gesicki vs the Colts
Prediction for Mike Gesicki
Nobody knows which slot Mike Gesicki will land in this week, so pick the one you expect. The projection changes because each slot faces a different average from the Colts.
I predict about 11.5 points for Mike Gesicki if playing as a TE1. Mike Gesicki has averaged 12.8 over 6 games, and the Colts have given up 11.3 to TE1s (+7% vs the league average of 10.5).
How this projection is built
1. The player. Mike Gesicki scored: Wk 1 18.8, Wk 3 12.7, Wk 4 13.0, Wk 5 7.4, Wk 7 7.6, Wk 8 17.6. Average 12.8; weighted toward recent games it is 10.9.
2. The defense. Over 8 games, the Colts allowed 11.3 points to their opponent's TE1. The league average for that slot is 10.5, so that is +7%.
3. Trusting small samples less. With 8 defensive games, only 73% of the gap is applied, capped at +/-30%. That gives a +5% adjustment (x1.05).
4. Result. 10.9 x 1.05 = 11.5. Switching slots only changes step 2 and 3: the player's own numbers stay the same, but each slot faces a different defensive average.
It is a statistical model, not knowledge of injuries, game script or weather.
Chance to score
Type a point total to see how likely Mike Gesicki is to reach it as a TE1.
Why this percentage?
The projection (11.5) is the middle of the range. Fantasy scores swing a lot from game to game, so the model spreads possible scores around it by about 4.8 points, leaning on Mike Gesicki's own game-to-game swings once there are several games (and on typical TE swings before that).
Scores are modelled as right-skewed, since a big game is possible but a very negative one is not. The percentage is the share of that spread at or above 11.
With only 6 games of history, treat this as a rough gauge. It gets sharper as the season goes on. It is never lower than 1% or higher than 99%.
InsightsPlain-English takeaways from the table
- TE1s have averaged 3.4 receptions, 34.0 receiving yards and 0.8 receiving TDs against the Colts across 8 games.
- The Colts allow 11.3 PPR points to TE1s, +7% versus the league average of 10.5 (ranked 11 of 32, where 1 is most generous). That is a near-average matchup.
- Outlier: Week 2, Travis Kelce (25.1 pts, 9 rec, 101 yds) sits far above the other games and pulls the averages up. Average with it vs without it: pts 11.3 vs 9.3; rec 3.4 vs 2.6; yds 34.0 vs 24.4. The table above keeps the raw averages.
- Outlier: Week 6, Daniel Bellinger (0.0 pts, 0 rec, 0 yds) sits far below the other games and drags the averages down. Average with it vs without it: pts 11.3 vs 12.9; rec 3.4 vs 3.9; yds 34.0 vs 38.9. The table above keeps the raw averages.
- 6 of 8 games reached 7+ PPR points. Scores range from 0.0 to 25.1 (median 9.5).
- TE1s scored a touchdown in 5 of 8 games (63%).
Insights are generated by rules from the table above and recalculate every week.