Josh Allen
QB
Buffalo Bills
- Top target Dalton Kincaid is questionable, which can lower the passing game.
- Top target DJ Moore is questionable, which can lower the passing game.
A hurt top target or lead back nudges the projection up a little, since their work tends to shift to teammates. QB and offensive-line flags are shown for context but do not change the number.
This is how QBs have played against the Lions in the 2026 season.
| Wk | Team | Player | Cmp | Att | PaYd | PaTD | INT | Car | RuYd | RuTD | FPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  NO | Tyler Shough | 35 | 56 | 410 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 8 | 0 | 23.2 |
| Average | 35.0 | 56.0 | 410.0 | 3.0 | 2.0 | 4.0 | 8.0 | 0.0 | 23.2 | ||
| Median | 35.0 | 56.0 | 410.0 | 3.0 | 2.0 | 4.0 | 8.0 | 0.0 | 23.2 | ||
| High | 35 | 56 | 410 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 8 | 0 | 23.2 | ||
| Low | 35 | 56 | 410 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 8 | 0 | 23.2 | ||
Averages are raw, outliers are never removed.
How Josh Allen should do vs the LionsSeason log, the group you pick, and a projection
Season so far, compared with what the group you pick below has done against the Lions, plus a projection for this game.
What is this table?
Rows at the top are every game Josh Allen has played this season, using the same stat columns as the table above.
Compare against picks which group of Lions opponents to line them up with: the best QB they faced in each game (1), the second best (2), the third best (3), or all of the top three. Nobody knows which slot Josh Allen will land in this week, so this is your call, not a guess.
Lions avg is the average line of that group. Difference is that minus Josh Allen's own average: green means the defense gives that slot more than Josh Allen usually produces.
Projected is Josh Allen's recent-weighted average scaled by how generous the Lions were to the slot you picked. Change the slot and the projected points change, because each slot has a different matchup adjustment. Picking Top 3 uses the usual-role projection.
| Wk | Opp | Cmp | Att | PaYd | PaTD | INT | Car | RuYd | RuTD | FPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | HOU | 20 | 29 | 334 | 2 | 0 | 6 | 23 | 2 | 35.7 |
| 2 | DET | 20 | 31 | 248 | 3 | 0 | 14 | 69 | 2 | 40.8 |
| 3 | LAC | 16 | 26 | 204 | 0 | 2 | 8 | 22 | 2 | 17.5 |
| 4 | NE | 23 | 33 | 253 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 18.5 |
| 5 | LA | 12 | 19 | 210 | 1 | 1 | 10 | 121 | 1 | 30.5 |
| 6 | LV | 23 | 33 | 255 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 18.3 |
| 8 | BAL | 21 | 34 | 289 | 2 | 1 | 7 | 30 | 1 | 26.6 |
| Allen avg | 19.3 | 29.3 | 256.1 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 7.9 | 38.6 | 1.3 | 26.8 | |
| Lions QB1 avg | 35.0 | 56.0 | 410.0 | 3.0 | 2.0 | 4.0 | 8.0 | 0.0 | 23.2 | |
| Difference | +15.7 | +26.7 | +153.9 | +1.4 | +1.3 | -3.9 | -30.6 | -1.3 | -3.6 | |
Difference is what the defense allows minus what Allen averages (green = defense gives up more). Projected stats scale the player's averages by the matchup adjustment, so they are a rough guide.
Prediction & chance to scoreJosh Allen vs the Lions
Prediction for Josh Allen
Nobody knows which slot Josh Allen will land in this week, so pick the one you expect. The projection changes because each slot faces a different average from the Lions.
I predict about 29.3 points for Josh Allen if playing as a QB1. Josh Allen has averaged 35.7 over 1 game, and the Lions have given up 23.2 to QB1s (+33% vs the league average of 17.4).
How this projection is built
1. The player. Josh Allen scored: Wk 1 35.7. Average 35.7; weighted toward recent games it is 27.1.
2. The defense. Over 1 game, the Lions allowed 23.2 points to their opponent's QB1. The league average for that slot is 17.4, so that is +33%.
3. Trusting small samples less. With 1 defensive game, only 25% of the gap is applied, capped at +/-30%. That gives a +8% adjustment (x1.08).
4. Result. 27.1 x 1.08 = 29.3. Switching slots only changes step 2 and 3: the player's own numbers stay the same, but each slot faces a different defensive average.
It is a statistical model, not knowledge of injuries, game script or weather.
Chance to score
Type a point total to see how likely Josh Allen is to reach it as a QB1.
Why this percentage?
The projection (29.3) is the middle of the range. Fantasy scores swing a lot from game to game, so the model spreads possible scores around it by about 17.6 points, leaning on Josh Allen's own game-to-game swings once there are several games (and on typical QB swings before that).
Scores are modelled as right-skewed, since a big game is possible but a very negative one is not. The percentage is the share of that spread at or above 29.
With only 1 game of history, treat this as a rough gauge. It gets sharper as the season goes on. It is never lower than 1% or higher than 99%.
InsightsPlain-English takeaways from the table
- QB1s have averaged 410.0 passing yards, 3.0 passing TDs and 8.0 rushing yards against the Lions across 1 game.
- The Lions allow 23.2 PPR points to QB1s, +33% versus the league average of 17.4 (ranked 8 of 32, where 1 is most generous). That is a favorable matchup.
- QB1s scored a touchdown in 1 of 1 games (100%).
- Small sample: only 1 game so far. Treat these numbers as directional, not settled.
Insights are generated by rules from the table above and recalculate every week.