Ashton Dulin
WR
Indianapolis Colts
This is how WRs have played against the Commanders in the 2026 season.
WR3 = the third-highest-scoring WR against Commanders in each game, not a fixed depth-chart spot.
| Wk | Team | Player | Tgt | Rec | ReYd | ReTD | FPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  PHI | Makai Lemon | 4 | 3 | -5 | 0 | 2.5 |
| 2 |  DAL | Ryan Flournoy | 6 | 5 | 23 | 0 | 7.3 |
| 3 |  SEA | Tory Horton | 3 | 3 | 48 | 0 | 7.8 |
| Average | 4.3 | 3.7 | 22.0 | 0.0 | 5.9 | ||
| Median | 4.0 | 3.0 | 23.0 | 0.0 | 7.3 | ||
| High | 6 | 5 | 48 | 0 | 7.8 | ||
| Low | 3 | 3 | -5 | 0 | 2.5 | ||
Averages are raw, outliers are never removed.
How Ashton Dulin should do vs the CommandersSeason log, the group you pick, and a projection
Season so far, compared with what the group you pick below has done against the Commanders, plus a projection for this game.
What is this table?
Rows at the top are every game Ashton Dulin has played this season, using the same stat columns as the table above.
Compare against picks which group of Commanders opponents to line them up with: the best WR they faced in each game (1), the second best (2), the third best (3), or all of the top three. Nobody knows which slot Ashton Dulin will land in this week, so this is your call, not a guess.
Commanders avg is the average line of that group. Difference is that minus Ashton Dulin's own average: green means the defense gives that slot more than Ashton Dulin usually produces.
Projected is Ashton Dulin's recent-weighted average scaled by how generous the Commanders were to the slot you picked. Change the slot and the projected points change, because each slot has a different matchup adjustment. Picking Top 3 uses the usual-role projection.
| Wk | Opp | Tgt | Rec | ReYd | ReTD | FPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | BAL | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.0 |
| 4 | WAS | 6 | 3 | 29 | 0 | 5.9 |
| Dulin avg | 3.5 | 1.5 | 14.5 | 0.0 | 3.0 | |
| Commanders WR3 avg | 4.3 | 3.7 | 22.0 | 0.0 | 5.9 | |
| Difference | +0.8 | +2.2 | +7.5 | +0.0 | +2.9 | |
Difference is what the defense allows minus what Dulin averages (green = defense gives up more). Projected stats scale the player's averages by the matchup adjustment, so they are a rough guide.
Prediction & chance to scoreAshton Dulin vs the Commanders
Prediction for Ashton Dulin
Nobody knows which slot Ashton Dulin will land in this week, so pick the one you expect. The projection changes because each slot faces a different average from the Commanders.
I predict about 2.5 points for Ashton Dulin if playing as a WR3. Ashton Dulin has averaged 0.0 over 1 game, and the Commanders have given up 5.9 to WR3s (+28% vs the league average of 4.6).
How this projection is built
1. The player. Ashton Dulin scored: Wk 1 0.0. Average 0.0; weighted toward recent games it is 2.2.
2. The defense. Over 3 games, the Commanders allowed 5.9 points to their opponent's WR3. The league average for that slot is 4.6, so that is +28%.
3. Trusting small samples less. With 3 defensive games, only 50% of the gap is applied, capped at +/-30%. That gives a +14% adjustment (x1.14).
4. Result. 2.2 x 1.14 = 2.5. Switching slots only changes step 2 and 3: the player's own numbers stay the same, but each slot faces a different defensive average.
It is a statistical model, not knowledge of injuries, game script or weather.
Chance to score
Type a point total to see how likely Ashton Dulin is to reach it as a WR3.
Why this percentage?
The projection (2.5) is the middle of the range. Fantasy scores swing a lot from game to game, so the model spreads possible scores around it by about 1.5 points, leaning on Ashton Dulin's own game-to-game swings once there are several games (and on typical WR swings before that).
Scores are modelled as right-skewed, since a big game is possible but a very negative one is not. The percentage is the share of that spread at or above 2.
With only 1 game of history, treat this as a rough gauge. It gets sharper as the season goes on. It is never lower than 1% or higher than 99%.
InsightsPlain-English takeaways from the table
- WR3s have averaged 3.7 receptions, 22.0 receiving yards and 0.0 receiving TDs against the Commanders across 3 games.
- The Commanders allow 5.9 PPR points to WR3s, +28% versus the league average of 4.6 (ranked 9 of 32, where 1 is most generous). That is a favorable matchup.
- Outlier: Week 3, Tory Horton (48 yds) sits far above the other games and pulls the averages up. Average with it vs without it: yds 22.0 vs 9.0. The table above keeps the raw averages.
- Outlier: Week 1, Makai Lemon (-5 yds) sits far below the other games and drags the averages down. Average with it vs without it: yds 22.0 vs 35.5. The table above keeps the raw averages.
- 0 of 3 games reached 10+ PPR points. Scores range from 2.5 to 7.8 (median 7.3).
- WR3s scored a touchdown in 0 of 3 games (0%).
Insights are generated by rules from the table above and recalculate every week.