T.J. Hockenson
TE
Minnesota Vikings
- Quarterback Kyler Murray is questionable. Watch the status.
A hurt top target or lead back nudges the projection up a little, since their work tends to shift to teammates. QB and offensive-line flags are shown for context but do not change the number.
This is how TEs have played against the Panthers in the 2026 season.
TE1 = the highest-scoring TE against Panthers in each game, not a fixed depth-chart spot.
| Wk | Team | Player | Tgt | Rec | ReYd | ReTD | FPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  CHI | Cole Kmet | 3 | 2 | 35 | 1 | 11.5 |
| 2 |  ATL | Austin Hooper | 4 | 2 | 20 | 0 | 4.0 |
| 3 |  CLE | Harold Fannin Jr. | 9 | 7 | 51 | 2 | 24.1 |
| 4 |  DET | Sam LaPorta | 13 | 8 | 84 | 1 | 22.4 |
| 6 |  PHI | Dallas Goedert | 8 | 6 | 61 | 0 | 12.1 |
| 7 |  TB | Cade Otton | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.0 |
| 8 |  GB | Tucker Kraft | 6 | 6 | 53 | 1 | 17.3 |
| Average | 6.3 | 4.4 | 43.4 | 0.7 | 13.1 | ||
| Median | 6.0 | 6.0 | 51.0 | 1.0 | 12.1 | ||
| High | 13 | 8 | 84 | 2 | 24.1 | ||
| Low | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.0 | ||
Averages are raw, outliers are never removed.
How T.J. Hockenson should do vs the PanthersSeason log, the group you pick, and a projection
Season so far, compared with what the group you pick below has done against the Panthers, plus a projection for this game.
What is this table?
Rows at the top are every game T.J. Hockenson has played this season, using the same stat columns as the table above.
Compare against picks which group of Panthers opponents to line them up with: the best TE they faced in each game (1), the second best (2), the third best (3), or all of the top three. Nobody knows which slot T.J. Hockenson will land in this week, so this is your call, not a guess.
Panthers avg is the average line of that group. Difference is that minus T.J. Hockenson's own average: green means the defense gives that slot more than T.J. Hockenson usually produces.
Projected is T.J. Hockenson's recent-weighted average scaled by how generous the Panthers were to the slot you picked. Change the slot and the projected points change, because each slot has a different matchup adjustment. Picking Top 3 uses the usual-role projection.
| Wk | Opp | Tgt | Rec | ReYd | ReTD | FPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | GB | 5 | 4 | 36 | 1 | 13.6 |
| 2 | CHI | 4 | 3 | 29 | 0 | 5.9 |
| 3 | TB | 4 | 2 | 11 | 0 | 3.1 |
| 4 | MIA | 13 | 13 | 119 | 0 | 24.9 |
| 5 | NO | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 | 1.7 |
| 7 | IND | 5 | 4 | 35 | 1 | 13.5 |
| 8 | DET | 5 | 4 | 58 | 1 | 15.8 |
| Hockenson avg | 5.3 | 4.4 | 42.1 | 0.4 | 11.2 | |
| Panthers TE1 avg | 6.3 | 4.4 | 43.4 | 0.7 | 13.1 | |
| Difference | +1.0 | +0.0 | +1.3 | +0.3 | +1.8 | |
| Projected as TE1 | 6.2 | 5.2 | 49.2 | 0.5 | 12.8 | |
Difference is what the defense allows minus what Hockenson averages (green = defense gives up more). Projected stats scale the player's averages by the matchup adjustment, so they are a rough guide.
Start / Sit · T.J. HockensonGood confidence · 12.8 proj pts5/10 start
- T.J. Hockenson averages 11.2 PPR points over 7 games (recent-weighted 11.9) and has played as the team's TE1.
- The Panthers have allowed 13.1 points to TE1s over 7 games (+24% vs league). The model applies 70% of that gap because the sample is small, giving a +17% adjustment.
- Last season's average (7.5) is blended in at 22% weight because this season's sample is small.
- Projection: 12.8 points.
- For reference, a typical weekly starter-level TE scores about 13.5 and a top-tier one about 19.5.
- A statistical model from box scores, Vegas lines, weather and injury tags. It cannot see role changes or in-game events.
Prediction & chance to scoreT.J. Hockenson vs the Panthers
Prediction for T.J. Hockenson
Nobody knows which slot T.J. Hockenson will land in this week, so pick the one you expect. The projection changes because each slot faces a different average from the Panthers.
I predict about 12.8 points for T.J. Hockenson if playing as a TE1. T.J. Hockenson has averaged 11.2 over 7 games, and the Panthers have given up 13.1 to TE1s (+24% vs the league average of 10.5).
How this projection is built
1. The player. T.J. Hockenson scored: Wk 1 13.6, Wk 2 5.9, Wk 3 3.1, Wk 4 24.9, Wk 5 1.7, Wk 7 13.5, Wk 8 15.8. Average 11.2; weighted toward recent games it is 11.0.
2. The defense. Over 7 games, the Panthers allowed 13.1 points to their opponent's TE1. The league average for that slot is 10.5, so that is +24%.
3. Trusting small samples less. With 7 defensive games, only 70% of the gap is applied, capped at +/-30%. That gives a +17% adjustment (x1.17).
4. Result. 11.0 x 1.17 = 12.8. Switching slots only changes step 2 and 3: the player's own numbers stay the same, but each slot faces a different defensive average.
It is a statistical model, not knowledge of injuries, game script or weather.
Chance to score
Type a point total to see how likely T.J. Hockenson is to reach it as a TE1.
Why this percentage?
The projection (12.8) is the middle of the range. Fantasy scores swing a lot from game to game, so the model spreads possible scores around it by about 8.2 points, leaning on T.J. Hockenson's own game-to-game swings once there are several games (and on typical TE swings before that).
Scores are modelled as right-skewed, since a big game is possible but a very negative one is not. The percentage is the share of that spread at or above 13.
With only 7 games of history, treat this as a rough gauge. It gets sharper as the season goes on. It is never lower than 1% or higher than 99%.
InsightsPlain-English takeaways from the table
- TE1s have averaged 4.4 receptions, 43.4 receiving yards and 0.7 receiving TDs against the Panthers across 7 games.
- The Panthers allow 13.1 PPR points to TE1s, +24% versus the league average of 10.5 (ranked 5 of 32, where 1 is most generous). That is a favorable matchup.
- Outlier: Week 4, Sam LaPorta (22.4 pts, 8 rec, 84 yds) sits far above the other games and pulls the averages up. Average with it vs without it: pts 13.1 vs 11.5; rec 4.4 vs 3.8; yds 43.4 vs 36.7. The table above keeps the raw averages.
- Outlier: Week 7, Cade Otton (0.0 pts, 0 rec, 0 yds) sits far below the other games and drags the averages down. Average with it vs without it: pts 13.1 vs 15.2; rec 4.4 vs 5.2; yds 43.4 vs 50.7. The table above keeps the raw averages.
- 5 of 7 games reached 7+ PPR points. Scores range from 0.0 to 24.1 (median 12.1).
- TE1s scored a touchdown in 4 of 7 games (57%).
Insights are generated by rules from the table above and recalculate every week.