T.J. Hockenson
TE
Minnesota Vikings
- Quarterback Kyler Murray is questionable. Watch the status.
A hurt top target or lead back nudges the projection up a little, since their work tends to shift to teammates. QB and offensive-line flags are shown for context but do not change the number.
This is how TEs have played against the Dolphins in the 2026 season.
TE1 = the highest-scoring TE against Dolphins in each game, not a fixed depth-chart spot.
| Wk | Team | Player | Tgt | Rec | ReYd | ReTD | FPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  LV | Michael Mayer | 7 | 6 | 32 | 0 | 9.2 |
| 2 |  SF | George Kittle | 4 | 4 | 80 | 1 | 18.0 |
| 3 |  KC | Travis Kelce | 2 | 2 | 59 | 1 | 13.9 |
| Average | 4.3 | 4.0 | 57.0 | 0.7 | 13.7 | ||
| Median | 4.0 | 4.0 | 59.0 | 1.0 | 13.9 | ||
| High | 7 | 6 | 80 | 1 | 18.0 | ||
| Low | 2 | 2 | 32 | 0 | 9.2 | ||
Averages are raw, outliers are never removed.
How T.J. Hockenson should do vs the DolphinsSeason log, the group you pick, and a projection
Season so far, compared with what the group you pick below has done against the Dolphins, plus a projection for this game.
What is this table?
Rows at the top are every game T.J. Hockenson has played this season, using the same stat columns as the table above.
Compare against picks which group of Dolphins opponents to line them up with: the best TE they faced in each game (1), the second best (2), the third best (3), or all of the top three. Nobody knows which slot T.J. Hockenson will land in this week, so this is your call, not a guess.
Dolphins avg is the average line of that group. Difference is that minus T.J. Hockenson's own average: green means the defense gives that slot more than T.J. Hockenson usually produces.
Projected is T.J. Hockenson's recent-weighted average scaled by how generous the Dolphins were to the slot you picked. Change the slot and the projected points change, because each slot has a different matchup adjustment. Picking Top 3 uses the usual-role projection.
| Wk | Opp | Tgt | Rec | ReYd | ReTD | FPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | GB | 5 | 4 | 36 | 1 | 13.6 |
| 2 | CHI | 4 | 3 | 29 | 0 | 5.9 |
| 3 | TB | 4 | 2 | 11 | 0 | 3.1 |
| 4 | MIA | 13 | 13 | 119 | 0 | 24.9 |
| 5 | NO | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 | 1.7 |
| 7 | IND | 5 | 4 | 35 | 1 | 13.5 |
| 8 | DET | 5 | 4 | 58 | 1 | 15.8 |
| Hockenson avg | 5.3 | 4.4 | 42.1 | 0.4 | 11.2 | |
| Dolphins TE1 avg | 4.3 | 4.0 | 57.0 | 0.7 | 13.7 | |
| Difference | -1.0 | -0.4 | +14.9 | +0.2 | +2.5 | |
Difference is what the defense allows minus what Hockenson averages (green = defense gives up more). Projected stats scale the player's averages by the matchup adjustment, so they are a rough guide.
Prediction & chance to scoreT.J. Hockenson vs the Dolphins
Prediction for T.J. Hockenson
Nobody knows which slot T.J. Hockenson will land in this week, so pick the one you expect. The projection changes because each slot faces a different average from the Dolphins.
I predict about 8.1 points for T.J. Hockenson if playing as a TE1. T.J. Hockenson has averaged 7.5 over 3 games, and the Dolphins have given up 13.7 to TE1s (+30% vs the league average of 10.5).
How this projection is built
1. The player. T.J. Hockenson scored: Wk 1 13.6, Wk 2 5.9, Wk 3 3.1. Average 7.5; weighted toward recent games it is 7.1.
2. The defense. Over 3 games, the Dolphins allowed 13.7 points to their opponent's TE1. The league average for that slot is 10.5, so that is +30%.
3. Trusting small samples less. With 3 defensive games, only 50% of the gap is applied, capped at +/-30%. That gives a +15% adjustment (x1.15).
4. Result. 7.1 x 1.15 = 8.1. Switching slots only changes step 2 and 3: the player's own numbers stay the same, but each slot faces a different defensive average.
It is a statistical model, not knowledge of injuries, game script or weather.
Chance to score
Type a point total to see how likely T.J. Hockenson is to reach it as a TE1.
Why this percentage?
The projection (8.1) is the middle of the range. Fantasy scores swing a lot from game to game, so the model spreads possible scores around it by about 5.2 points, leaning on T.J. Hockenson's own game-to-game swings once there are several games (and on typical TE swings before that).
Scores are modelled as right-skewed, since a big game is possible but a very negative one is not. The percentage is the share of that spread at or above 8.
With only 3 games of history, treat this as a rough gauge. It gets sharper as the season goes on. It is never lower than 1% or higher than 99%.
InsightsPlain-English takeaways from the table
- TE1s have averaged 4.0 receptions, 57.0 receiving yards and 0.7 receiving TDs against the Dolphins across 3 games.
- The Dolphins allow 13.7 PPR points to TE1s, +30% versus the league average of 10.5 (ranked 7 of 32, where 1 is most generous). That is a favorable matchup.
- Outlier: Week 2, George Kittle (80 yds) sits far above the other games and pulls the averages up. Average with it vs without it: yds 57.0 vs 45.5. The table above keeps the raw averages.
- Outlier: Week 3, Travis Kelce (2 rec) sits far below the other games and drags the averages down. Average with it vs without it: rec 4.0 vs 5.0. The table above keeps the raw averages.
- 3 of 3 games reached 7+ PPR points. Scores range from 9.2 to 18.0 (median 13.9).
- Every TE1 in the sample cleared 30 receiving yards.
- TE1s scored a touchdown in 2 of 3 games (67%).
Insights are generated by rules from the table above and recalculate every week.