Matt Gay
K
Las Vegas Raiders
This is how Ks have played against the Bills in the 2026 season.
| Wk | Team | Player | FGM | FGA | 40+ | Lng | XP | FPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  HOU | Ka'imi Fairbairn | 1 | 1 | 1 | 58 | 4 | 9.0 |
| 2 |  DET | Jake Bates | 1 | 1 | 0 | 31 | 4 | 7.0 |
| 3 |  LAC | Cameron Dicker | 3 | 4 | 0 | 33 | 1 | 10.0 |
| 4 |  NE | Andy Borregales | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3.0 |
| 5 |  LA | Harrison Mevis | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 4.0 |
| Average | 1.0 | 1.6 | 0.2 | 24.4 | 3.2 | 6.6 | ||
| Median | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 31.0 | 4.0 | 7.0 | ||
| High | 3 | 4 | 1 | 58 | 4 | 10.0 | ||
| Low | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3.0 | ||
Averages are raw, outliers are never removed. Kicker scoring: FG 3/4/5 by distance, XP 1, missed FG under 40 yds -1.
How Matt Gay should do vs the BillsSeason log, the group you pick, and a projection
Season so far, compared with what the group you pick below has done against the Bills, plus a projection for this game.
What is this table?
Rows at the top are every game Matt Gay has played this season, using the same stat columns as the table above.
Compare against picks which group of Bills opponents to line them up with: the best K they faced in each game (1), the second best (2), the third best (3), or all of the top three. Nobody knows which slot Matt Gay will land in this week, so this is your call, not a guess.
Bills avg is the average line of that group. Difference is that minus Matt Gay's own average: green means the defense gives that slot more than Matt Gay usually produces.
Projected is Matt Gay's recent-weighted average scaled by how generous the Bills were to the slot you picked. Change the slot and the projected points change, because each slot has a different matchup adjustment. Picking Top 3 uses the usual-role projection.
| Wk | Opp | FGM | FGA | 40+ | Lng | XP | FPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | MIA | 2 | 2 | 1 | 47 | 3 | 10.0 |
| 2 | LAC | 1 | 1 | 1 | 59 | 3 | 8.0 |
| 3 | NO | 3 | 3 | 1 | 41 | 2 | 12.0 |
| 4 | KC | 4 | 4 | 3 | 48 | 1 | 16.0 |
| 5 | NE | 1 | 2 | 1 | 46 | 2 | 6.0 |
| 6 | BUF | 3 | 3 | 0 | 35 | 3 | 12.0 |
| 7 | LA | 3 | 4 | 0 | 36 | 0 | 9.0 |
| 8 | NYJ | 1 | 1 | 1 | 53 | 5 | 10.0 |
| Gay avg | 2.3 | 2.5 | 1.0 | 45.6 | 2.4 | 10.4 | |
| Bills K1 avg | 1.0 | 1.6 | 0.2 | 24.4 | 3.2 | 6.6 | |
| Difference | -1.3 | -0.9 | -0.8 | -21.2 | +0.8 | -3.8 | |
Difference is what the defense allows minus what Gay averages (green = defense gives up more). Projected stats scale the player's averages by the matchup adjustment, so they are a rough guide.
Prediction & chance to scoreMatt Gay vs the Bills
Prediction for Matt Gay
Nobody knows which slot Matt Gay will land in this week, so pick the one you expect. The projection changes because each slot faces a different average from the Bills.
I predict about 8.1 points for Matt Gay if playing as a K1. Matt Gay has averaged 10.4 over 5 games, and the Bills have given up 6.6 to K1s (-24% vs the league average of 8.7).
How this projection is built
1. The player. Matt Gay scored: Wk 1 10.0, Wk 2 8.0, Wk 3 12.0, Wk 4 16.0, Wk 5 6.0. Average 10.4; weighted toward recent games it is 9.5.
2. The defense. Over 5 games, the Bills allowed 6.6 points to their opponent's K1. The league average for that slot is 8.7, so that is -24%.
3. Trusting small samples less. With 5 defensive games, only 63% of the gap is applied, capped at +/-30%. That gives a -15% adjustment (x0.85).
4. Result. 9.5 x 0.85 = 8.1. Switching slots only changes step 2 and 3: the player's own numbers stay the same, but each slot faces a different defensive average.
It is a statistical model, not knowledge of injuries, game script or weather.
Chance to score
Type a point total to see how likely Matt Gay is to reach it as a K1.
Why this percentage?
The projection (8.1) is the middle of the range. Fantasy scores swing a lot from game to game, so the model spreads possible scores around it by about 4.0 points, leaning on Matt Gay's own game-to-game swings once there are several games (and on typical K swings before that).
Scores are modelled as right-skewed, since a big game is possible but a very negative one is not. The percentage is the share of that spread at or above 8.
With only 5 games of history, treat this as a rough gauge. It gets sharper as the season goes on. It is never lower than 1% or higher than 99%.
InsightsPlain-English takeaways from the table
- K1s have averaged 1.0 field goals made, 1.6 field goal attempts and 3.2 extra points against the Bills across 5 games.
- The Bills allow 6.6 PPR points to K1s, -24% versus the league average of 8.7 (ranked 25 of 32, where 1 is most generous). That is a tough matchup.
- Outlier: Week 3, Cameron Dicker (10.0 pts, 3 FG) sits far above the other games and pulls the averages up. Average with it vs without it: pts 6.6 vs 5.8; FG 1.0 vs 0.5. The table above keeps the raw averages.
- Outlier: Week 4, Andy Borregales (3.0 pts) sits far below the other games and drags the averages down. Average with it vs without it: pts 6.6 vs 7.5. The table above keeps the raw averages.
- 2 of 5 games reached 8+ PPR points. Scores range from 3.0 to 10.0 (median 7.0).
Insights are generated by rules from the table above and recalculate every week.