Drew Sample
TE
Cincinnati Bengals
This is how TEs have played against the Ravens in the 2026 season.
TE1 = the highest-scoring TE against Ravens in each game, not a fixed depth-chart spot.
| Wk | Team | Player | Tgt | Rec | ReYd | ReTD | FPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  IND | Tyler Warren | 5 | 3 | 13 | 1 | 10.3 |
| 2 |  NO | Juwan Johnson | 4 | 4 | 66 | 0 | 10.6 |
| 3 |  DAL | Jake Ferguson | 5 | 3 | 23 | 1 | 9.3 |
| 4 |  TEN | Gunnar Helm | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 3.5 |
| 5 |  ATL | Kyle Pitts | 6 | 5 | 42 | 1 | 15.2 |
| 6 |  CLE | Harold Fannin Jr. | 3 | 1 | 9 | 0 | 1.9 |
| Average | 4.0 | 2.8 | 26.3 | 0.5 | 8.5 | ||
| Median | 4.5 | 3.0 | 18.0 | 0.5 | 9.8 | ||
| High | 6 | 5 | 66 | 1 | 15.2 | ||
| Low | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 1.9 | ||
Averages are raw, outliers are never removed.
How Drew Sample should do vs the RavensSeason log, the group you pick, and a projection
Season so far, compared with what the group you pick below has done against the Ravens, plus a projection for this game.
What is this table?
Rows at the top are every game Drew Sample has played this season, using the same stat columns as the table above.
Compare against picks which group of Ravens opponents to line them up with: the best TE they faced in each game (1), the second best (2), the third best (3), or all of the top three. Nobody knows which slot Drew Sample will land in this week, so this is your call, not a guess.
Ravens avg is the average line of that group. Difference is that minus Drew Sample's own average: green means the defense gives that slot more than Drew Sample usually produces.
Projected is Drew Sample's recent-weighted average scaled by how generous the Ravens were to the slot you picked. Change the slot and the projected points change, because each slot has a different matchup adjustment. Picking Top 3 uses the usual-role projection.
| Wk | Opp | Tgt | Rec | ReYd | ReTD | FPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | TB | 3 | 3 | 19 | 0 | 4.9 |
| 3 | PIT | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1.0 |
| 5 | MIA | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 1.5 |
| 7 | BAL | 2 | 2 | 24 | 1 | 10.4 |
| Sample avg | 2.0 | 1.8 | 12.0 | 0.3 | 4.5 | |
| Ravens TE1 avg | 4.0 | 2.8 | 26.3 | 0.5 | 8.5 | |
| Difference | +2.0 | +1.1 | +14.3 | +0.3 | +4.0 | |
Difference is what the defense allows minus what Sample averages (green = defense gives up more). Projected stats scale the player's averages by the matchup adjustment, so they are a rough guide.
Prediction & chance to scoreDrew Sample vs the Ravens
Prediction for Drew Sample
Nobody knows which slot Drew Sample will land in this week, so pick the one you expect. The projection changes because each slot faces a different average from the Ravens.
I predict about 2.2 points for Drew Sample if playing as a TE1. Drew Sample has averaged 2.5 over 3 games, and the Ravens have given up 8.5 to TE1s (-19% vs the league average of 10.5).
How this projection is built
1. The player. Drew Sample scored: Wk 1 4.9, Wk 3 1.0, Wk 5 1.5. Average 2.5; weighted toward recent games it is 2.5.
2. The defense. Over 6 games, the Ravens allowed 8.5 points to their opponent's TE1. The league average for that slot is 10.5, so that is -19%.
3. Trusting small samples less. With 6 defensive games, only 67% of the gap is applied, capped at +/-30%. That gives a -13% adjustment (x0.87).
4. Result. 2.5 x 0.87 = 2.2. Switching slots only changes step 2 and 3: the player's own numbers stay the same, but each slot faces a different defensive average.
It is a statistical model, not knowledge of injuries, game script or weather.
Chance to score
Type a point total to see how likely Drew Sample is to reach it as a TE1.
Why this percentage?
The projection (2.2) is the middle of the range. Fantasy scores swing a lot from game to game, so the model spreads possible scores around it by about 1.7 points, leaning on Drew Sample's own game-to-game swings once there are several games (and on typical TE swings before that).
Scores are modelled as right-skewed, since a big game is possible but a very negative one is not. The percentage is the share of that spread at or above 2.
With only 3 games of history, treat this as a rough gauge. It gets sharper as the season goes on. It is never lower than 1% or higher than 99%.
InsightsPlain-English takeaways from the table
- TE1s have averaged 2.8 receptions, 26.3 receiving yards and 0.5 receiving TDs against the Ravens across 6 games.
- The Ravens allow 8.5 PPR points to TE1s, -19% versus the league average of 10.5 (ranked 21 of 32, where 1 is most generous). That is a tough matchup.
- Outlier: Week 5, Kyle Pitts (15.2 pts) sits far above the other games and pulls the averages up. Average with it vs without it: pts 8.5 vs 7.1. The table above keeps the raw averages.
- Outlier: Week 2, Juwan Johnson (66 yds) sits far above the other games and pulls the averages up. Average with it vs without it: yds 26.3 vs 18.4. The table above keeps the raw averages.
- 4 of 6 games reached 7+ PPR points. Scores range from 1.9 to 15.2 (median 9.8).
- TE1s scored a touchdown in 3 of 6 games (50%).
Insights are generated by rules from the table above and recalculate every week.