David Montgomery
RB
Houston TexansOut
This is how RBs have played against the Cowboys in the 2026 season.
RB2 = the second-highest-scoring RB against Cowboys in each game, not a fixed depth-chart spot.
| Wk | Team | Player | Car | RuYd | RuTD | Tgt | Rec | ReYd | ReTD | FPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  NYG | Devin Singletary | 6 | 16 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 22 | 1 | 13.8 |
| 2 |  WAS | Jacory Croskey-Merritt | 12 | 43 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 5.8 |
| 3 |  BAL | Justice Hill | 5 | 33 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3.3 |
| Average | 7.7 | 30.7 | 0.0 | 1.7 | 1.7 | 9.0 | 0.3 | 7.6 | ||
| Median | 6.0 | 33.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 5.0 | 0.0 | 5.8 | ||
| High | 12 | 43 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 22 | 1 | 13.8 | ||
| Low | 5 | 16 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3.3 | ||
Averages are raw, outliers are never removed.
How David Montgomery should do vs the CowboysSeason log, the group you pick, and a projection
Season so far, compared with what the group you pick below has done against the Cowboys, plus a projection for this game.
What is this table?
Rows at the top are every game David Montgomery has played this season, using the same stat columns as the table above.
Compare against picks which group of Cowboys opponents to line them up with: the best RB they faced in each game (1), the second best (2), the third best (3), or all of the top three. Nobody knows which slot David Montgomery will land in this week, so this is your call, not a guess.
Cowboys avg is the average line of that group. Difference is that minus David Montgomery's own average: green means the defense gives that slot more than David Montgomery usually produces.
Projected is David Montgomery's recent-weighted average scaled by how generous the Cowboys were to the slot you picked. Change the slot and the projected points change, because each slot has a different matchup adjustment. Picking Top 3 uses the usual-role projection.
| Wk | Opp | Car | RuYd | RuTD | Tgt | Rec | ReYd | ReTD | FPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | BUF | 20 | 60 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 19 | 1 | 28.9 |
| 2 | CIN | 6 | 10 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 14 | 0 | 4.4 |
| 3 | IND | 11 | 33 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 15 | 0 | 6.8 |
| 4 | DAL | 10 | 24 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 19 | 0 | 4.3 |
| 5 | TEN | 5 | 11 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.1 |
| Montgomery avg | 10.4 | 27.6 | 0.4 | 1.4 | 1.4 | 13.4 | 0.2 | 9.1 | |
| Cowboys RB2 avg | 7.7 | 30.7 | 0.0 | 1.7 | 1.7 | 9.0 | 0.3 | 7.6 | |
| Difference | -2.7 | +3.1 | -0.4 | +0.3 | +0.3 | -4.4 | +0.1 | -1.5 | |
Difference is what the defense allows minus what Montgomery averages (green = defense gives up more). Projected stats scale the player's averages by the matchup adjustment, so they are a rough guide.
Prediction & chance to scoreDavid Montgomery vs the Cowboys
Prediction for David Montgomery
Nobody knows which slot David Montgomery will land in this week, so pick the one you expect. The projection changes because each slot faces a different average from the Cowboys.
I predict about 14.3 points for David Montgomery if playing as a RB2. David Montgomery has averaged 13.4 over 3 games, and the Cowboys have given up 7.6 to RB2s (+65% vs the league average of 4.6).
How this projection is built
1. The player. David Montgomery scored: Wk 1 28.9, Wk 2 4.4, Wk 3 6.8. Average 13.4; weighted toward recent games it is 11.0.
2. The defense. Over 3 games, the Cowboys allowed 7.6 points to their opponent's RB2. The league average for that slot is 4.6, so that is +65%.
3. Trusting small samples less. With 3 defensive games, only 50% of the gap is applied, capped at +/-30%. That gives a +30% adjustment (x1.30).
4. Result. 11.0 x 1.30 = 14.3. Switching slots only changes step 2 and 3: the player's own numbers stay the same, but each slot faces a different defensive average.
It is a statistical model, not knowledge of injuries, game script or weather.
Chance to score
Type a point total to see how likely David Montgomery is to reach it as a RB2.
Why this percentage?
The projection (14.3) is the middle of the range. Fantasy scores swing a lot from game to game, so the model spreads possible scores around it by about 11.0 points, leaning on David Montgomery's own game-to-game swings once there are several games (and on typical RB swings before that).
Scores are modelled as right-skewed, since a big game is possible but a very negative one is not. The percentage is the share of that spread at or above 14.
With only 3 games of history, treat this as a rough gauge. It gets sharper as the season goes on. It is never lower than 1% or higher than 99%.
InsightsPlain-English takeaways from the table
- RB2s have averaged 7.7 carries, 30.7 rushing yards and 1.7 receptions against the Cowboys across 3 games.
- The Cowboys allow 7.6 PPR points to RB2s, +65% versus the league average of 4.6 (ranked 3 of 32, where 1 is most generous). That is a favorable matchup.
- Outlier: Week 1, Devin Singletary (13.8 pts) sits far above the other games and pulls the averages up. Average with it vs without it: pts 7.6 vs 4.5. The table above keeps the raw averages.
- Outlier: Week 3, Justice Hill (3.3 pts) sits far below the other games and drags the averages down. Average with it vs without it: pts 7.6 vs 9.8. The table above keeps the raw averages.
- 1 of 3 games reached 10+ PPR points. Scores range from 3.3 to 13.8 (median 5.8).
- RB2s scored a touchdown in 1 of 3 games (33%).
Insights are generated by rules from the table above and recalculate every week.