Josh Jacobs
RB
Green Bay Packers
- Teammate Christian Watson (a top target) is questionable.
- Backfield mate MarShawn Lloyd is questionable, so Jacobs could see more carries.
A hurt top target or lead back nudges the projection up a little, since their work tends to shift to teammates. QB and offensive-line flags are shown for context but do not change the number.
This is how RBs have played against the Panthers in the 2026 season.
RB1 = the highest-scoring RB against Panthers in each game, not a fixed depth-chart spot.
| Wk | Team | Player | Car | RuYd | RuTD | Tgt | Rec | ReYd | ReTD | FPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  CHI | D'Andre Swift | 18 | 124 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 10 | 0 | 32.4 |
| 2 |  ATL | Bijan Robinson | 16 | 72 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 9 | 0 | 11.1 |
| 3 |  CLE | Quinshon Judkins | 18 | 70 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 9 | 0 | 9.9 |
| 4 |  DET | Jahmyr Gibbs | 15 | 46 | 1 | 7 | 4 | 31 | 0 | 17.7 |
| 6 |  PHI | Dameon Pierce | 12 | 35 | 1 | 5 | 4 | 15 | 0 | 15.0 |
| 7 |  TB | Bucky Irving | 24 | 106 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 24.0 |
| Average | 17.2 | 75.5 | 1.2 | 3.5 | 2.5 | 13.0 | 0.0 | 18.3 | ||
| Median | 17.0 | 71.0 | 1.0 | 3.0 | 2.5 | 9.5 | 0.0 | 16.4 | ||
| High | 24 | 124 | 3 | 7 | 4 | 31 | 0 | 32.4 | ||
| Low | 12 | 35 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 9.9 | ||
Averages are raw, outliers are never removed.
How Josh Jacobs should do vs the PanthersSeason log, the group you pick, and a projection
Season so far, compared with what the group you pick below has done against the Panthers, plus a projection for this game.
What is this table?
Rows at the top are every game Josh Jacobs has played this season, using the same stat columns as the table above.
Compare against picks which group of Panthers opponents to line them up with: the best RB they faced in each game (1), the second best (2), the third best (3), or all of the top three. Nobody knows which slot Josh Jacobs will land in this week, so this is your call, not a guess.
Panthers avg is the average line of that group. Difference is that minus Josh Jacobs's own average: green means the defense gives that slot more than Josh Jacobs usually produces.
Projected is Josh Jacobs's recent-weighted average scaled by how generous the Panthers were to the slot you picked. Change the slot and the projected points change, because each slot has a different matchup adjustment. Picking Top 3 uses the usual-role projection.
| Wk | Opp | Car | RuYd | RuTD | Tgt | Rec | ReYd | ReTD | FPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | DET | 11 | 36 | 0 | 7 | 5 | 55 | 1 | 20.1 |
| 8 | CAR | 21 | 39 | 1 | 6 | 6 | 13 | 1 | 23.2 |
| Jacobs avg | 16.0 | 37.5 | 0.5 | 6.5 | 5.5 | 34.0 | 1.0 | 21.6 | |
| Panthers RB1 avg | 17.2 | 75.5 | 1.2 | 3.5 | 2.5 | 13.0 | 0.0 | 18.3 | |
| Difference | +1.2 | +38.0 | +0.7 | -3.0 | -3.0 | -21.0 | -1.0 | -3.3 | |
Difference is what the defense allows minus what Jacobs averages (green = defense gives up more). Projected stats scale the player's averages by the matchup adjustment, so they are a rough guide.
Prediction & chance to scoreJosh Jacobs vs the Panthers
Prediction for Josh Jacobs
Nobody knows which slot Josh Jacobs will land in this week, so pick the one you expect. The projection changes because each slot faces a different average from the Panthers.
I predict about 18.9 points for Josh Jacobs if playing as a RB1. Josh Jacobs has averaged 20.1 over 1 game, and the Panthers have given up 18.3 to RB1s (+15% vs the league average of 16.0).
How this projection is built
1. The player. Josh Jacobs scored: Wk 7 20.1. Average 20.1; weighted toward recent games it is 17.2.
2. The defense. Over 6 games, the Panthers allowed 18.3 points to their opponent's RB1. The league average for that slot is 16.0, so that is +15%.
3. Trusting small samples less. With 6 defensive games, only 67% of the gap is applied, capped at +/-30%. That gives a +10% adjustment (x1.10).
4. Result. 17.2 x 1.10 = 18.9. Switching slots only changes step 2 and 3: the player's own numbers stay the same, but each slot faces a different defensive average.
It is a statistical model, not knowledge of injuries, game script or weather.
Chance to score
Type a point total to see how likely Josh Jacobs is to reach it as a RB1.
Why this percentage?
The projection (18.9) is the middle of the range. Fantasy scores swing a lot from game to game, so the model spreads possible scores around it by about 11.4 points, leaning on Josh Jacobs's own game-to-game swings once there are several games (and on typical RB swings before that).
Scores are modelled as right-skewed, since a big game is possible but a very negative one is not. The percentage is the share of that spread at or above 19.
With only 1 game of history, treat this as a rough gauge. It gets sharper as the season goes on. It is never lower than 1% or higher than 99%.
InsightsPlain-English takeaways from the table
- RB1s have averaged 17.2 carries, 75.5 rushing yards and 2.5 receptions against the Panthers across 6 games.
- The Panthers allow 18.3 PPR points to RB1s, +15% versus the league average of 16.0 (ranked 5 of 32, where 1 is most generous). That is a favorable matchup.
- Outlier: Week 1, D'Andre Swift (32.4 pts, 124 rush yds) sits far above the other games and pulls the averages up. Average with it vs without it: pts 18.3 vs 15.5; rush yds 75.5 vs 65.8. The table above keeps the raw averages.
- 5 of 6 games reached 10+ PPR points. Scores range from 9.9 to 32.4 (median 16.4).
- Every RB1 in the sample cleared 30 rushing yards.
- RB1s scored a touchdown in 4 of 6 games (67%).
Insights are generated by rules from the table above and recalculate every week.