D'Andre Swift
RB
Chicago Bears▲ Hot
This is how RBs have played against the Packers in the 2026 season.
RB1 = the highest-scoring RB against Packers in each game, not a fixed depth-chart spot.
| Wk | Team | Player | Car | RuYd | RuTD | Tgt | Rec | ReYd | ReTD | FPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  MIN | Jordan Mason | 15 | 59 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11.9 |
| 2 |  NYJ | Breece Hall | 16 | 29 | 0 | 5 | 5 | 63 | 0 | 14.2 |
| 3 |  ATL | Bijan Robinson | 29 | 194 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 19 | 0 | 35.3 |
| 4 |  TB | Kenny Gainwell | 3 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 22 | 1 | 10.7 |
| Average | 15.8 | 71.8 | 0.8 | 2.3 | 2.3 | 26.0 | 0.3 | 18.0 | ||
| Median | 15.5 | 44.0 | 0.5 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 20.5 | 0.0 | 13.1 | ||
| High | 29 | 194 | 2 | 5 | 5 | 63 | 1 | 35.3 | ||
| Low | 3 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10.7 | ||
Averages are raw, outliers are never removed.
How D'Andre Swift should do vs the PackersSeason log, the group you pick, and a projection
Season so far, compared with what the group you pick below has done against the Packers, plus a projection for this game.
What is this table?
Rows at the top are every game D'Andre Swift has played this season, using the same stat columns as the table above.
Compare against picks which group of Packers opponents to line them up with: the best RB they faced in each game (1), the second best (2), the third best (3), or all of the top three. Nobody knows which slot D'Andre Swift will land in this week, so this is your call, not a guess.
Packers avg is the average line of that group. Difference is that minus D'Andre Swift's own average: green means the defense gives that slot more than D'Andre Swift usually produces.
Projected is D'Andre Swift's recent-weighted average scaled by how generous the Packers were to the slot you picked. Change the slot and the projected points change, because each slot has a different matchup adjustment. Picking Top 3 uses the usual-role projection.
| Wk | Opp | Car | RuYd | RuTD | Tgt | Rec | ReYd | ReTD | FPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | CAR | 18 | 124 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 10 | 0 | 32.4 |
| 2 | MIN | 16 | 45 | 0 | 5 | 5 | 54 | 0 | 12.9 |
| 3 | PHI | 20 | 84 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 10.8 |
| 4 | NYJ | 15 | 58 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 16 | 0 | 7.4 |
| 5 | GB | 9 | 43 | 1 | 5 | 4 | 30 | 0 | 17.3 |
| 6 | ATL | 16 | 44 | 2 | 5 | 4 | 26 | 0 | 23.0 |
| 7 | NE | 22 | 78 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 12 | 0 | 19.0 |
| 8 | SEA | 27 | 69 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 10 | 0 | 27.9 |
| Swift avg | 17.9 | 68.1 | 1.3 | 3.5 | 3.0 | 20.3 | 0.0 | 18.8 | |
| Packers RB1 avg | 15.8 | 71.8 | 0.8 | 2.3 | 2.3 | 26.0 | 0.3 | 18.0 | |
| Difference | -2.1 | +3.6 | -0.5 | -1.3 | -0.8 | +5.8 | +0.3 | -0.8 | |
Difference is what the defense allows minus what Swift averages (green = defense gives up more). Projected stats scale the player's averages by the matchup adjustment, so they are a rough guide.
Prediction & chance to scoreD'Andre Swift vs the Packers
Prediction for D'Andre Swift
Nobody knows which slot D'Andre Swift will land in this week, so pick the one you expect. The projection changes because each slot faces a different average from the Packers.
I predict about 15.0 points for D'Andre Swift if playing as a RB1. D'Andre Swift has averaged 15.9 over 4 games, and the Packers have given up 18.0 to RB1s (+12% vs the league average of 16.0).
How this projection is built
1. The player. D'Andre Swift scored: Wk 1 32.4, Wk 2 12.9, Wk 3 10.8, Wk 4 7.4. Average 15.9; weighted toward recent games it is 14.0.
2. The defense. Over 4 games, the Packers allowed 18.0 points to their opponent's RB1. The league average for that slot is 16.0, so that is +12%.
3. Trusting small samples less. With 4 defensive games, only 57% of the gap is applied, capped at +/-30%. That gives a +7% adjustment (x1.07).
4. Result. 14.0 x 1.07 = 15.0. Switching slots only changes step 2 and 3: the player's own numbers stay the same, but each slot faces a different defensive average.
It is a statistical model, not knowledge of injuries, game script or weather.
Chance to score
Type a point total to see how likely D'Andre Swift is to reach it as a RB1.
Why this percentage?
The projection (15.0) is the middle of the range. Fantasy scores swing a lot from game to game, so the model spreads possible scores around it by about 10.5 points, leaning on D'Andre Swift's own game-to-game swings once there are several games (and on typical RB swings before that).
Scores are modelled as right-skewed, since a big game is possible but a very negative one is not. The percentage is the share of that spread at or above 15.
With only 4 games of history, treat this as a rough gauge. It gets sharper as the season goes on. It is never lower than 1% or higher than 99%.
InsightsPlain-English takeaways from the table
- RB1s have averaged 15.8 carries, 71.8 rushing yards and 2.3 receptions against the Packers across 4 games.
- The Packers allow 18.0 PPR points to RB1s, +12% versus the league average of 16.0 (ranked 8 of 32, where 1 is most generous). That is a favorable matchup.
- Outlier: Week 3, Bijan Robinson (35.3 pts, 29 car, 194 rush yds) sits far above the other games and pulls the averages up. Average with it vs without it: pts 18.0 vs 12.3; car 15.8 vs 11.3; rush yds 71.8 vs 31.0. The table above keeps the raw averages.
- Outlier: Week 4, Kenny Gainwell (3 car, 5 rush yds) sits far below the other games and drags the averages down. Average with it vs without it: car 15.8 vs 20.0; rush yds 71.8 vs 94.0. The table above keeps the raw averages.
- 4 of 4 games reached 10+ PPR points. Scores range from 10.7 to 35.3 (median 13.1).
- RB1s scored a touchdown in 3 of 4 games (75%).
Insights are generated by rules from the table above and recalculate every week.