D'Andre Swift
RB
Chicago Bears▲ Hot
This is how RBs have played against the Patriots in the 2026 season.
RB1 = the highest-scoring RB against Patriots in each game, not a fixed depth-chart spot.
| Wk | Team | Player | Car | RuYd | RuTD | Tgt | Rec | ReYd | ReTD | FPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  SEA | Jadarian Price | 10 | 52 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 0 | 7.8 |
| 2 |  PIT | Jaylen Warren | 11 | 43 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 34 | 0 | 9.7 |
| 3 |  JAX | Bhayshul Tuten | 15 | 73 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 17 | 0 | 17.0 |
| 4 |  BUF | James Cook | 12 | 75 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 8 | 0 | 16.3 |
| 5 |  LV | Dylan Laube | 4 | 9 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 16 | 0 | 11.5 |
| 6 |  NYJ | Braelon Allen | 17 | 78 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 26 | 0 | 12.4 |
| Average | 11.5 | 55.0 | 0.5 | 2.5 | 2.2 | 17.8 | 0.0 | 12.5 | ||
| Median | 11.5 | 62.5 | 0.5 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 16.5 | 0.0 | 11.9 | ||
| High | 17 | 78 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 34 | 0 | 17.0 | ||
| Low | 4 | 9 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 0 | 7.8 | ||
Averages are raw, outliers are never removed.
How D'Andre Swift should do vs the PatriotsSeason log, the group you pick, and a projection
Season so far, compared with what the group you pick below has done against the Patriots, plus a projection for this game.
What is this table?
Rows at the top are every game D'Andre Swift has played this season, using the same stat columns as the table above.
Compare against picks which group of Patriots opponents to line them up with: the best RB they faced in each game (1), the second best (2), the third best (3), or all of the top three. Nobody knows which slot D'Andre Swift will land in this week, so this is your call, not a guess.
Patriots avg is the average line of that group. Difference is that minus D'Andre Swift's own average: green means the defense gives that slot more than D'Andre Swift usually produces.
Projected is D'Andre Swift's recent-weighted average scaled by how generous the Patriots were to the slot you picked. Change the slot and the projected points change, because each slot has a different matchup adjustment. Picking Top 3 uses the usual-role projection.
| Wk | Opp | Car | RuYd | RuTD | Tgt | Rec | ReYd | ReTD | FPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | CAR | 18 | 124 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 10 | 0 | 32.4 |
| 2 | MIN | 16 | 45 | 0 | 5 | 5 | 54 | 0 | 12.9 |
| 3 | PHI | 20 | 84 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 10.8 |
| 4 | NYJ | 15 | 58 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 16 | 0 | 7.4 |
| 5 | GB | 9 | 43 | 1 | 5 | 4 | 30 | 0 | 17.3 |
| 6 | ATL | 16 | 44 | 2 | 5 | 4 | 26 | 0 | 23.0 |
| 7 | NE | 22 | 78 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 12 | 0 | 19.0 |
| 8 | SEA | 27 | 69 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 10 | 0 | 27.9 |
| Swift avg | 17.9 | 68.1 | 1.3 | 3.5 | 3.0 | 20.3 | 0.0 | 18.8 | |
| Patriots RB1 avg | 11.5 | 55.0 | 0.5 | 2.5 | 2.2 | 17.8 | 0.0 | 12.5 | |
| Difference | -6.4 | -13.1 | -0.8 | -1.0 | -0.8 | -2.4 | +0.0 | -6.4 | |
Difference is what the defense allows minus what Swift averages (green = defense gives up more). Projected stats scale the player's averages by the matchup adjustment, so they are a rough guide.
Prediction & chance to scoreD'Andre Swift vs the Patriots
Prediction for D'Andre Swift
Nobody knows which slot D'Andre Swift will land in this week, so pick the one you expect. The projection changes because each slot faces a different average from the Patriots.
I predict about 14.0 points for D'Andre Swift if playing as a RB1. D'Andre Swift has averaged 17.3 over 6 games, and the Patriots have given up 12.5 to RB1s (-21% vs the league average of 15.8).
How this projection is built
1. The player. D'Andre Swift scored: Wk 1 32.4, Wk 2 12.9, Wk 3 10.8, Wk 4 7.4, Wk 5 17.3, Wk 6 23.0. Average 17.3; weighted toward recent games it is 16.4.
2. The defense. Over 6 games, the Patriots allowed 12.5 points to their opponent's RB1. The league average for that slot is 15.8, so that is -21%.
3. Trusting small samples less. With 6 defensive games, only 67% of the gap is applied, capped at +/-30%. That gives a -14% adjustment (x0.86).
4. Result. 16.4 x 0.86 = 14.0. Switching slots only changes step 2 and 3: the player's own numbers stay the same, but each slot faces a different defensive average.
It is a statistical model, not knowledge of injuries, game script or weather.
Chance to score
Type a point total to see how likely D'Andre Swift is to reach it as a RB1.
Why this percentage?
The projection (14.0) is the middle of the range. Fantasy scores swing a lot from game to game, so the model spreads possible scores around it by about 9.2 points, leaning on D'Andre Swift's own game-to-game swings once there are several games (and on typical RB swings before that).
Scores are modelled as right-skewed, since a big game is possible but a very negative one is not. The percentage is the share of that spread at or above 14.
With only 6 games of history, treat this as a rough gauge. It gets sharper as the season goes on. It is never lower than 1% or higher than 99%.
InsightsPlain-English takeaways from the table
- RB1s have averaged 11.5 carries, 55.0 rushing yards and 2.2 receptions against the Patriots across 6 games.
- The Patriots allow 12.5 PPR points to RB1s, -21% versus the league average of 15.8 (ranked 29 of 32, where 1 is most generous). That is a tough matchup.
- Outlier: Week 5, Dylan Laube (4 car, 9 rush yds) sits far below the other games and drags the averages down. Average with it vs without it: car 11.5 vs 13.0; rush yds 55.0 vs 64.2. The table above keeps the raw averages.
- 4 of 6 games reached 10+ PPR points. Scores range from 7.8 to 17.0 (median 11.9).
- RB1s scored a touchdown in 3 of 6 games (50%).
Insights are generated by rules from the table above and recalculate every week.