Tee Higgins
WR
Cincinnati Bengals
This is how WRs have played against the Dolphins in the 2026 season.
WR1 = the highest-scoring WR against Dolphins in each game, not a fixed depth-chart spot.
| Wk | Team | Player | Tgt | Rec | ReYd | ReTD | FPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  LV | Jack Bech | 4 | 3 | 23 | 1 | 11.3 |
| 2 |  SF | Mike Evans | 3 | 3 | 54 | 0 | 8.4 |
| 3 |  KC | Rashee Rice | 9 | 7 | 88 | 0 | 15.8 |
| 4 |  MIN | Jordan Addison | 6 | 4 | 52 | 0 | 9.1 |
| Average | 5.5 | 4.3 | 54.3 | 0.3 | 11.2 | ||
| Median | 5.0 | 3.5 | 53.0 | 0.0 | 10.2 | ||
| High | 9 | 7 | 88 | 1 | 15.8 | ||
| Low | 3 | 3 | 23 | 0 | 8.4 | ||
Averages are raw, outliers are never removed.
How Tee Higgins should do vs the DolphinsSeason log, the group you pick, and a projection
Season so far, compared with what the group you pick below has done against the Dolphins, plus a projection for this game.
What is this table?
Rows at the top are every game Tee Higgins has played this season, using the same stat columns as the table above.
Compare against picks which group of Dolphins opponents to line them up with: the best WR they faced in each game (1), the second best (2), the third best (3), or all of the top three. Nobody knows which slot Tee Higgins will land in this week, so this is your call, not a guess.
Dolphins avg is the average line of that group. Difference is that minus Tee Higgins's own average: green means the defense gives that slot more than Tee Higgins usually produces.
Projected is Tee Higgins's recent-weighted average scaled by how generous the Dolphins were to the slot you picked. Change the slot and the projected points change, because each slot has a different matchup adjustment. Picking Top 3 uses the usual-role projection.
| Wk | Opp | Tgt | Rec | ReYd | ReTD | FPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | TB | 6 | 3 | 59 | 0 | 8.9 |
| 2 | HOU | 10 | 5 | 95 | 0 | 14.5 |
| 3 | PIT | 7 | 6 | 90 | 1 | 21.0 |
| 4 | JAX | 16 | 11 | 157 | 0 | 26.7 |
| 5 | MIA | 4 | 2 | 22 | 0 | 4.2 |
| 7 | BAL | 7 | 6 | 148 | 1 | 26.8 |
| 8 | TEN | 11 | 10 | 155 | 2 | 37.5 |
| Higgins avg | 8.7 | 6.1 | 103.7 | 0.6 | 19.9 | |
| Dolphins WR1 avg | 5.5 | 4.3 | 54.3 | 0.3 | 11.2 | |
| Difference | -3.2 | -1.9 | -49.5 | -0.3 | -8.8 | |
Difference is what the defense allows minus what Higgins averages (green = defense gives up more). Projected stats scale the player's averages by the matchup adjustment, so they are a rough guide.
Prediction & chance to scoreTee Higgins vs the Dolphins
Prediction for Tee Higgins
Nobody knows which slot Tee Higgins will land in this week, so pick the one you expect. The projection changes because each slot faces a different average from the Dolphins.
I predict about 14.0 points for Tee Higgins if playing as a WR1. Tee Higgins has averaged 17.8 over 4 games, and the Dolphins have given up 11.2 to WR1s (-36% vs the league average of 17.5).
How this projection is built
1. The player. Tee Higgins scored: Wk 1 8.9, Wk 2 14.5, Wk 3 21.0, Wk 4 26.7. Average 17.8; weighted toward recent games it is 17.7.
2. The defense. Over 4 games, the Dolphins allowed 11.2 points to their opponent's WR1. The league average for that slot is 17.5, so that is -36%.
3. Trusting small samples less. With 4 defensive games, only 57% of the gap is applied, capped at +/-30%. That gives a -21% adjustment (x0.79).
4. Result. 17.7 x 0.79 = 14.0. Switching slots only changes step 2 and 3: the player's own numbers stay the same, but each slot faces a different defensive average.
It is a statistical model, not knowledge of injuries, game script or weather.
Chance to score
Type a point total to see how likely Tee Higgins is to reach it as a WR1.
Why this percentage?
The projection (14.0) is the middle of the range. Fantasy scores swing a lot from game to game, so the model spreads possible scores around it by about 8.0 points, leaning on Tee Higgins's own game-to-game swings once there are several games (and on typical WR swings before that).
Scores are modelled as right-skewed, since a big game is possible but a very negative one is not. The percentage is the share of that spread at or above 14.
With only 4 games of history, treat this as a rough gauge. It gets sharper as the season goes on. It is never lower than 1% or higher than 99%.
InsightsPlain-English takeaways from the table
- WR1s have averaged 4.3 receptions, 54.3 receiving yards and 0.3 receiving TDs against the Dolphins across 4 games.
- The Dolphins allow 11.2 PPR points to WR1s, -36% versus the league average of 17.5 (ranked 29 of 32, where 1 is most generous). That is a tough matchup.
- Outlier: Week 3, Rashee Rice (15.8 pts, 7 rec, 88 yds) sits far above the other games and pulls the averages up. Average with it vs without it: pts 11.2 vs 9.6; rec 4.3 vs 3.3; yds 54.3 vs 43.0. The table above keeps the raw averages.
- Outlier: Week 1, Jack Bech (23 yds) sits far below the other games and drags the averages down. Average with it vs without it: yds 54.3 vs 64.7. The table above keeps the raw averages.
- 2 of 4 games reached 10+ PPR points. Scores range from 8.4 to 15.8 (median 10.2).
- WR1s scored a touchdown in 1 of 4 games (25%).
Insights are generated by rules from the table above and recalculate every week.