Brandon Smith
WR
Pittsburgh Steelers
This is how WRs have played against the Browns in the 2026 season.
WR3 = the third-highest-scoring WR against Browns in each game, not a fixed depth-chart spot.
| Wk | Team | Player | Tgt | Rec | ReYd | ReTD | FPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  JAX | Josh Cameron | 2 | 2 | 20 | 1 | 10.0 |
| 2 |  TB | Tez Johnson | 4 | 1 | 49 | 0 | 5.9 |
| 3 |  CAR | Jalen Coker | 4 | 2 | 18 | 0 | 3.8 |
| 4 | PIT | Michael Pittman | 4 | 2 | 15 | 0 | 3.5 |
| 5 |  NYJ | Isaiah Williams | 2 | 1 | 16 | 0 | 2.9 |
| 6 |  BAL | Devontez Walker | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.0 |
| 7 |  TEN | Wan'Dale Robinson | 6 | 4 | 7 | 0 | 4.7 |
| Average | 3.4 | 1.7 | 17.9 | 0.1 | 4.4 | ||
| Median | 4.0 | 2.0 | 16.0 | 0.0 | 3.8 | ||
| High | 6 | 4 | 49 | 1 | 10.0 | ||
| Low | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.0 | ||
Averages are raw, outliers are never removed.
How Brandon Smith should do vs the BrownsSeason log, the group you pick, and a projection
Season so far, compared with what the group you pick below has done against the Browns, plus a projection for this game.
What is this table?
Rows at the top are every game Brandon Smith has played this season, using the same stat columns as the table above.
Compare against picks which group of Browns opponents to line them up with: the best WR they faced in each game (1), the second best (2), the third best (3), or all of the top three. Nobody knows which slot Brandon Smith will land in this week, so this is your call, not a guess.
Browns avg is the average line of that group. Difference is that minus Brandon Smith's own average: green means the defense gives that slot more than Brandon Smith usually produces.
Projected is Brandon Smith's recent-weighted average scaled by how generous the Browns were to the slot you picked. Change the slot and the projected points change, because each slot has a different matchup adjustment. Picking Top 3 uses the usual-role projection.
| Wk | Opp | Tgt | Rec | ReYd | ReTD | FPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | NO | 2 | 2 | 24 | 0 | 4.4 |
| Smith avg | 2.0 | 2.0 | 24.0 | 0.0 | 4.4 | |
| Browns WR3 avg | 3.4 | 1.7 | 17.9 | 0.1 | 4.4 | |
| Difference | +1.4 | -0.3 | -6.1 | +0.1 | -0.0 | |
Difference is what the defense allows minus what Smith averages (green = defense gives up more). Projected stats scale the player's averages by the matchup adjustment, so they are a rough guide.
Prediction & chance to scoreBrandon Smith vs the Browns
Prediction for Brandon Smith
Nobody knows which slot Brandon Smith will land in this week, so pick the one you expect. The projection changes because each slot faces a different average from the Browns.
I predict about 4.4 points for Brandon Smith if playing as a WR3. Brandon Smith has averaged 4.4 over 1 game, and the Browns have given up 4.4 to WR3s (+1% vs the league average of 4.4).
How this projection is built
1. The player. Brandon Smith scored: Wk 7 4.4. Average 4.4; weighted toward recent games it is 4.4.
2. The defense. Over 7 games, the Browns allowed 4.4 points to their opponent's WR3. The league average for that slot is 4.4, so that is +1%.
3. Trusting small samples less. With 7 defensive games, only 70% of the gap is applied, capped at +/-30%. That gives a +1% adjustment (x1.01).
4. Result. 4.4 x 1.01 = 4.4. Switching slots only changes step 2 and 3: the player's own numbers stay the same, but each slot faces a different defensive average.
It is a statistical model, not knowledge of injuries, game script or weather.
Chance to score
Type a point total to see how likely Brandon Smith is to reach it as a WR3.
Why this percentage?
The projection (4.4) is the middle of the range. Fantasy scores swing a lot from game to game, so the model spreads possible scores around it by about 2.7 points, leaning on Brandon Smith's own game-to-game swings once there are several games (and on typical WR swings before that).
Scores are modelled as right-skewed, since a big game is possible but a very negative one is not. The percentage is the share of that spread at or above 4.
With only 1 game of history, treat this as a rough gauge. It gets sharper as the season goes on. It is never lower than 1% or higher than 99%.
InsightsPlain-English takeaways from the table
- WR3s have averaged 1.7 receptions, 17.9 receiving yards and 0.1 receiving TDs against the Browns across 7 games.
- The Browns allow 4.4 PPR points to WR3s, +1% versus the league average of 4.4 (ranked 16 of 32, where 1 is most generous). That is a near-average matchup.
- Outlier: Week 1, Josh Cameron (10.0 pts) sits far above the other games and pulls the averages up. Average with it vs without it: pts 4.4 vs 3.5. The table above keeps the raw averages.
- Outlier: Week 2, Tez Johnson (49 yds) sits far above the other games and pulls the averages up. Average with it vs without it: yds 17.9 vs 12.7. The table above keeps the raw averages.
- 1 of 7 games reached 10+ PPR points. Scores range from 0.0 to 10.0 (median 3.8).
- WR3s scored a touchdown in 1 of 7 games (14%).
Insights are generated by rules from the table above and recalculate every week.