Brandon Smith
WR
Pittsburgh Steelers
This is how WRs have played against the Eagles in the 2026 season.
WR3 = the third-highest-scoring WR against Eagles in each game, not a fixed depth-chart spot.
| Wk | Team | Player | Tgt | Rec | ReYd | ReTD | FPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  WAS | Terry McLaurin | 4 | 2 | 14 | 0 | 3.4 |
| 2 |  TEN | Calvin Ridley | 2 | 2 | 35 | 0 | 5.5 |
| 3 |  CHI | Rome Odunze | 6 | 3 | 44 | 0 | 7.4 |
| 4 |  LA | Tutu Atwell | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 | 1.8 |
| 5 |  JAX | Jakobi Meyers | 3 | 2 | 37 | 0 | 5.7 |
| 6 |  CAR | John Metchie III | 3 | 2 | 24 | 0 | 4.4 |
| 7 |  DAL | Ryan Flournoy | 4 | 4 | 70 | 0 | 11.0 |
| 8 | WAS | Antonio Williams | 7 | 5 | 54 | 0 | 10.4 |
| Average | 3.8 | 2.6 | 35.8 | 0.0 | 6.2 | ||
| Median | 3.5 | 2.0 | 36.0 | 0.0 | 5.6 | ||
| High | 7 | 5 | 70 | 0 | 11.0 | ||
| Low | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 | 1.8 | ||
Averages are raw, outliers are never removed.
How Brandon Smith should do vs the EaglesSeason log, the group you pick, and a projection
Season so far, compared with what the group you pick below has done against the Eagles, plus a projection for this game.
What is this table?
Rows at the top are every game Brandon Smith has played this season, using the same stat columns as the table above.
Compare against picks which group of Eagles opponents to line them up with: the best WR they faced in each game (1), the second best (2), the third best (3), or all of the top three. Nobody knows which slot Brandon Smith will land in this week, so this is your call, not a guess.
Eagles avg is the average line of that group. Difference is that minus Brandon Smith's own average: green means the defense gives that slot more than Brandon Smith usually produces.
Projected is Brandon Smith's recent-weighted average scaled by how generous the Eagles were to the slot you picked. Change the slot and the projected points change, because each slot has a different matchup adjustment. Picking Top 3 uses the usual-role projection.
| Wk | Opp | Tgt | Rec | ReYd | ReTD | FPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | NO | 2 | 2 | 24 | 0 | 4.4 |
| Smith avg | 2.0 | 2.0 | 24.0 | 0.0 | 4.4 | |
| Eagles WR3 avg | 3.8 | 2.6 | 35.8 | 0.0 | 6.2 | |
| Difference | +1.8 | +0.6 | +11.8 | +0.0 | +1.8 | |
| Projected as WR3 | 2.6 | 2.6 | 31.2 | 0.0 | 5.7 | |
Difference is what the defense allows minus what Smith averages (green = defense gives up more). Projected stats scale the player's averages by the matchup adjustment, so they are a rough guide.
Start / Sit · Brandon SmithLow confidence · 5.7 proj pts1/10 start
- Brandon Smith averages 4.4 PPR points over 1 game (recent-weighted 4.4) and has played as the team's WR3.
- The Eagles have allowed 6.2 points to WR3s over 8 games (+42% vs league). The model applies 73% of that gap because the sample is small, giving a +30% adjustment.
- Projection: 5.7 points.
- For reference, a typical weekly starter-level WR scores about 12.2 and a top-tier one about 20.9.
- Confidence is low: too few games for either the player or the defense. Use this as a rough lean, not a lock.
- A statistical model from box scores, Vegas lines, weather and injury tags. It cannot see role changes or in-game events.
Prediction & chance to scoreBrandon Smith vs the Eagles
Prediction for Brandon Smith
Nobody knows which slot Brandon Smith will land in this week, so pick the one you expect. The projection changes because each slot faces a different average from the Eagles.
I predict about 5.7 points for Brandon Smith if playing as a WR3. Brandon Smith has averaged 4.4 over 1 game, and the Eagles have given up 6.2 to WR3s (+42% vs the league average of 4.4).
How this projection is built
1. The player. Brandon Smith scored: Wk 7 4.4. Average 4.4; weighted toward recent games it is 4.4.
2. The defense. Over 8 games, the Eagles allowed 6.2 points to their opponent's WR3. The league average for that slot is 4.4, so that is +42%.
3. Trusting small samples less. With 8 defensive games, only 73% of the gap is applied, capped at +/-30%. That gives a +30% adjustment (x1.30).
4. Result. 4.4 x 1.30 = 5.7. Switching slots only changes step 2 and 3: the player's own numbers stay the same, but each slot faces a different defensive average.
It is a statistical model, not knowledge of injuries, game script or weather.
Chance to score
Type a point total to see how likely Brandon Smith is to reach it as a WR3.
Why this percentage?
The projection (5.7) is the middle of the range. Fantasy scores swing a lot from game to game, so the model spreads possible scores around it by about 3.4 points, leaning on Brandon Smith's own game-to-game swings once there are several games (and on typical WR swings before that).
Scores are modelled as right-skewed, since a big game is possible but a very negative one is not. The percentage is the share of that spread at or above 6.
With only 1 game of history, treat this as a rough gauge. It gets sharper as the season goes on. It is never lower than 1% or higher than 99%.
InsightsPlain-English takeaways from the table
- WR3s have averaged 2.6 receptions, 35.8 receiving yards and 0.0 receiving TDs against the Eagles across 8 games.
- The Eagles allow 6.2 PPR points to WR3s, +42% versus the league average of 4.4 (ranked 2 of 32, where 1 is most generous). That is a favorable matchup.
- Outlier: Week 7, Ryan Flournoy (70 yds) sits far above the other games and pulls the averages up. Average with it vs without it: yds 35.8 vs 30.9. The table above keeps the raw averages.
- 2 of 8 games reached 10+ PPR points. Scores range from 1.8 to 11.0 (median 5.6).
- WR3s scored a touchdown in 0 of 8 games (0%).
Insights are generated by rules from the table above and recalculate every week.