Rhamondre Stevenson
RB
New England Patriots
- Teammate Hunter Henry (a top target) is questionable.
- Teammate Romeo Doubs (a top target) is on IR, so Stevenson may see more targets.
A hurt top target or lead back nudges the projection up a little, since their work tends to shift to teammates. QB and offensive-line flags are shown for context but do not change the number.
This is how RBs have played against the Jets in the 2026 season.
RB1 = the highest-scoring RB against Jets in each game, not a fixed depth-chart spot.
| Wk | Team | Player | Car | RuYd | RuTD | Tgt | Rec | ReYd | ReTD | FPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  TEN | Tony Pollard | 7 | 35 | 0 | 2 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 4.4 |
| 2 |  GB | MarShawn Lloyd | 6 | 20 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 1 | 8.6 |
| 3 |  DET | Jahmyr Gibbs | 20 | 99 | 2 | 8 | 7 | 65 | 1 | 41.4 |
| 4 |  CHI | Kyle Monangai | 30 | 146 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 28.0 |
| 5 |  CLE | Quinshon Judkins | 14 | 44 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 6 | 0 | 8.0 |
| Average | 15.4 | 68.8 | 0.8 | 3.4 | 2.8 | 16.0 | 0.4 | 18.1 | ||
| Median | 14.0 | 44.0 | 0.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 6.0 | 0.0 | 8.6 | ||
| High | 30 | 146 | 2 | 8 | 7 | 65 | 1 | 41.4 | ||
| Low | 6 | 20 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 4.4 | ||
Averages are raw, outliers are never removed.
How Rhamondre Stevenson should do vs the JetsSeason log, the group you pick, and a projection
Season so far, compared with what the group you pick below has done against the Jets, plus a projection for this game.
What is this table?
Rows at the top are every game Rhamondre Stevenson has played this season, using the same stat columns as the table above.
Compare against picks which group of Jets opponents to line them up with: the best RB they faced in each game (1), the second best (2), the third best (3), or all of the top three. Nobody knows which slot Rhamondre Stevenson will land in this week, so this is your call, not a guess.
Jets avg is the average line of that group. Difference is that minus Rhamondre Stevenson's own average: green means the defense gives that slot more than Rhamondre Stevenson usually produces.
Projected is Rhamondre Stevenson's recent-weighted average scaled by how generous the Jets were to the slot you picked. Change the slot and the projected points change, because each slot has a different matchup adjustment. Picking Top 3 uses the usual-role projection.
| Wk | Opp | Car | RuYd | RuTD | Tgt | Rec | ReYd | ReTD | FPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | SEA | 18 | 51 | 0 | 6 | 5 | 44 | 0 | 14.5 |
| 2 | PIT | 6 | 43 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 3.6 |
| 3 | JAX | 7 | 22 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 16 | 0 | 6.8 |
| 4 | BUF | 13 | 47 | 1 | 5 | 3 | 27 | 0 | 18.4 |
| 5 | LV | 13 | 64 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 21 | 0 | 17.5 |
| 6 | NYJ | 14 | 36 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3.6 |
| 7 | CHI | 6 | 22 | 0 | 5 | 5 | 93 | 1 | 22.5 |
| 8 | MIA | 19 | 82 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 8 | 0 | 12.0 |
| Stevenson avg | 12.0 | 45.9 | 0.3 | 3.4 | 2.9 | 26.5 | 0.1 | 12.4 | |
| Jets RB1 avg | 15.4 | 68.8 | 0.8 | 3.4 | 2.8 | 16.0 | 0.4 | 18.1 | |
| Difference | +3.4 | +22.9 | +0.6 | +0.0 | -0.1 | -10.5 | +0.3 | +5.7 | |
Difference is what the defense allows minus what Stevenson averages (green = defense gives up more). Projected stats scale the player's averages by the matchup adjustment, so they are a rough guide.
Prediction & chance to scoreRhamondre Stevenson vs the Jets
Prediction for Rhamondre Stevenson
Nobody knows which slot Rhamondre Stevenson will land in this week, so pick the one you expect. The projection changes because each slot faces a different average from the Jets.
I predict about 14.1 points for Rhamondre Stevenson if playing as a RB1. Rhamondre Stevenson has averaged 12.2 over 5 games, and the Jets have given up 18.1 to RB1s (+13% vs the league average of 16.1).
How this projection is built
1. The player. Rhamondre Stevenson scored: Wk 1 14.5, Wk 2 3.6, Wk 3 6.8, Wk 4 18.4, Wk 5 17.5. Average 12.2; weighted toward recent games it is 13.1.
2. The defense. Over 5 games, the Jets allowed 18.1 points to their opponent's RB1. The league average for that slot is 16.1, so that is +13%.
3. Trusting small samples less. With 5 defensive games, only 63% of the gap is applied, capped at +/-30%. That gives a +8% adjustment (x1.08).
4. Result. 13.1 x 1.08 = 14.1. Switching slots only changes step 2 and 3: the player's own numbers stay the same, but each slot faces a different defensive average.
It is a statistical model, not knowledge of injuries, game script or weather.
Chance to score
Type a point total to see how likely Rhamondre Stevenson is to reach it as a RB1.
Why this percentage?
The projection (14.1) is the middle of the range. Fantasy scores swing a lot from game to game, so the model spreads possible scores around it by about 6.9 points, leaning on Rhamondre Stevenson's own game-to-game swings once there are several games (and on typical RB swings before that).
Scores are modelled as right-skewed, since a big game is possible but a very negative one is not. The percentage is the share of that spread at or above 14.
With only 5 games of history, treat this as a rough gauge. It gets sharper as the season goes on. It is never lower than 1% or higher than 99%.
InsightsPlain-English takeaways from the table
- RB1s have averaged 15.4 carries, 68.8 rushing yards and 2.8 receptions against the Jets across 5 games.
- The Jets allow 18.1 PPR points to RB1s, +13% versus the league average of 16.1 (ranked 6 of 32, where 1 is most generous). That is a favorable matchup.
- Outlier: Week 4, Kyle Monangai (28.0 pts, 30 car, 146 rush yds) sits far above the other games and pulls the averages up. Average with it vs without it: pts 18.1 vs 15.6; car 15.4 vs 11.8; rush yds 68.8 vs 49.5. The table above keeps the raw averages.
- Outlier: Week 3, Jahmyr Gibbs (41.4 pts, 99 rush yds) sits far above the other games and pulls the averages up. Average with it vs without it: pts 18.1 vs 12.3; rush yds 68.8 vs 61.3. The table above keeps the raw averages.
- 2 of 5 games reached 10+ PPR points. Scores range from 4.4 to 41.4 (median 8.6).
- RB1s scored a touchdown in 3 of 5 games (60%).
Insights are generated by rules from the table above and recalculate every week.