Najee Harris
RB
New York Giants
- Teammate Malik Nabers (a top target) is questionable.
- Backfield mate Cam Skattebo is questionable, so Harris could see more carries.
A hurt top target or lead back nudges the projection up a little, since their work tends to shift to teammates. QB and offensive-line flags are shown for context but do not change the number.
This is how RBs have played against the Commanders in the 2026 season.
RB2 = the second-highest-scoring RB against Commanders in each game, not a fixed depth-chart spot.
| Wk | Team | Player | Car | RuYd | RuTD | Tgt | Rec | ReYd | ReTD | FPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  PHI | Will Shipley | 2 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 | 2.2 |
| 2 |  DAL | Emari Demercado | 3 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.8 |
| 3 |  SEA | Brady Russell | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 20 | 0 | 3.0 |
| 4 |  IND | Seth McGowan | 6 | 31 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 7 | 0 | 4.8 |
| 5 | NYG | Tyrone Tracy Jr. | 3 | 6 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 25 | 0 | 5.1 |
| 6 |  SF | Kaelon Black | 8 | 34 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 4.7 |
| 8 | PHI | Elijah Mitchell | 11 | 34 | 0 | 6 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 7.7 |
| Average | 4.7 | 16.7 | 0.0 | 2.0 | 1.4 | 9.4 | 0.0 | 4.0 | ||
| Median | 3.0 | 8.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 7.0 | 0.0 | 4.7 | ||
| High | 11 | 34 | 0 | 6 | 4 | 25 | 0 | 7.7 | ||
| Low | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.8 | ||
Averages are raw, outliers are never removed.
How Najee Harris should do vs the CommandersSeason log, the group you pick, and a projection
Season so far, compared with what the group you pick below has done against the Commanders, plus a projection for this game.
What is this table?
Rows at the top are every game Najee Harris has played this season, using the same stat columns as the table above.
Compare against picks which group of Commanders opponents to line them up with: the best RB they faced in each game (1), the second best (2), the third best (3), or all of the top three. Nobody knows which slot Najee Harris will land in this week, so this is your call, not a guess.
Commanders avg is the average line of that group. Difference is that minus Najee Harris's own average: green means the defense gives that slot more than Najee Harris usually produces.
Projected is Najee Harris's recent-weighted average scaled by how generous the Commanders were to the slot you picked. Change the slot and the projected points change, because each slot has a different matchup adjustment. Picking Top 3 uses the usual-role projection.
| Wk | Opp | Car | RuYd | RuTD | Tgt | Rec | ReYd | ReTD | FPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | LA | 4 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.6 |
| 3 | TEN | 9 | 52 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5.2 |
| 4 | ARI | 9 | 30 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3.0 |
| 5 | WAS | 5 | 9 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 2.4 |
| 6 | NO | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.2 |
| Harris avg | 6.2 | 19.8 | 0.0 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 2.3 | |
| Commanders RB2 avg | 4.7 | 16.7 | 0.0 | 2.0 | 1.4 | 9.4 | 0.0 | 4.0 | |
| Difference | -1.5 | -3.1 | +0.0 | +1.8 | +1.2 | +8.4 | +0.0 | +1.8 | |
| Projected as RB2 | 5.3 | 16.9 | 0.0 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.9 | 0.0 | 1.8 | |
Difference is what the defense allows minus what Harris averages (green = defense gives up more). Projected stats scale the player's averages by the matchup adjustment, so they are a rough guide.
Start / Sit · Najee HarrisGood confidence · 1.8 proj pts1/10 start
- Najee Harris averages 2.3 PPR points over 5 games (recent-weighted 2.1) and has played as the team's RB2.
- The Commanders have allowed 4.0 points to RB2s over 7 games (-21% vs league). The model applies 70% of that gap because the sample is small, giving a -14% adjustment.
- Projection: 1.8 points.
- For reference, a typical weekly starter-level RB scores about 13.1 and a top-tier one about 20.9.
- A statistical model from box scores, Vegas lines, weather and injury tags. It cannot see role changes or in-game events.
Prediction & chance to scoreNajee Harris vs the Commanders
Prediction for Najee Harris
Nobody knows which slot Najee Harris will land in this week, so pick the one you expect. The projection changes because each slot faces a different average from the Commanders.
I predict about 1.8 points for Najee Harris if playing as a RB2. Najee Harris has averaged 2.3 over 5 games, and the Commanders have given up 4.0 to RB2s (-21% vs the league average of 5.1).
How this projection is built
1. The player. Najee Harris scored: Wk 2 0.6, Wk 3 5.2, Wk 4 3.0, Wk 5 2.4, Wk 6 0.2. Average 2.3; weighted toward recent games it is 2.1.
2. The defense. Over 7 games, the Commanders allowed 4.0 points to their opponent's RB2. The league average for that slot is 5.1, so that is -21%.
3. Trusting small samples less. With 7 defensive games, only 70% of the gap is applied, capped at +/-30%. That gives a -14% adjustment (x0.86).
4. Result. 2.1 x 0.86 = 1.8. Switching slots only changes step 2 and 3: the player's own numbers stay the same, but each slot faces a different defensive average.
It is a statistical model, not knowledge of injuries, game script or weather.
Chance to score
Type a point total to see how likely Najee Harris is to reach it as a RB2.
Why this percentage?
The projection (1.8) is the middle of the range. Fantasy scores swing a lot from game to game, so the model spreads possible scores around it by about 1.9 points, leaning on Najee Harris's own game-to-game swings once there are several games (and on typical RB swings before that).
Scores are modelled as right-skewed, since a big game is possible but a very negative one is not. The percentage is the share of that spread at or above 2.
With only 5 games of history, treat this as a rough gauge. It gets sharper as the season goes on. It is never lower than 1% or higher than 99%.
InsightsPlain-English takeaways from the table
- RB2s have averaged 4.7 carries, 16.7 rushing yards and 1.4 receptions against the Commanders across 7 games.
- The Commanders allow 4.0 PPR points to RB2s, -21% versus the league average of 5.1 (ranked 28 of 32, where 1 is most generous). That is a tough matchup.
- Outlier: Week 8, Elijah Mitchell (11 car) sits far above the other games and pulls the averages up. Average with it vs without it: car 4.7 vs 3.7. The table above keeps the raw averages.
- 0 of 7 games reached 10+ PPR points. Scores range from 0.8 to 7.7 (median 4.7).
- RB2s scored a touchdown in 0 of 7 games (0%).
Insights are generated by rules from the table above and recalculate every week.