Pat Freiermuth
TE
Pittsburgh Steelers
This is how TEs have played against the Saints in the 2026 season.
TE1 = the highest-scoring TE against Saints in each game, not a fixed depth-chart spot.
| Wk | Team | Player | Tgt | Rec | ReYd | ReTD | FPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  DET | Sam LaPorta | 8 | 5 | 48 | 0 | 9.8 |
| 2 |  BAL | Mark Andrews | 7 | 6 | 49 | 0 | 10.9 |
| 3 |  LV | Brock Bowers | 13 | 10 | 116 | 1 | 27.6 |
| 4 |  ATL | Kyle Pitts | 3 | 3 | 47 | 0 | 7.7 |
| 5 |  MIN | Gavin Bartholomew | 6 | 5 | 33 | 0 | 8.3 |
| 6 |  NYG | Isaiah Likely | 11 | 6 | 99 | 1 | 23.9 |
| Average | 8.0 | 5.8 | 65.3 | 0.3 | 14.7 | ||
| Median | 7.5 | 5.5 | 48.5 | 0.0 | 10.4 | ||
| High | 13 | 10 | 116 | 1 | 27.6 | ||
| Low | 3 | 3 | 33 | 0 | 7.7 | ||
Averages are raw, outliers are never removed.
How Pat Freiermuth should do vs the SaintsSeason log, the group you pick, and a projection
Season so far, compared with what the group you pick below has done against the Saints, plus a projection for this game.
What is this table?
Rows at the top are every game Pat Freiermuth has played this season, using the same stat columns as the table above.
Compare against picks which group of Saints opponents to line them up with: the best TE they faced in each game (1), the second best (2), the third best (3), or all of the top three. Nobody knows which slot Pat Freiermuth will land in this week, so this is your call, not a guess.
Saints avg is the average line of that group. Difference is that minus Pat Freiermuth's own average: green means the defense gives that slot more than Pat Freiermuth usually produces.
Projected is Pat Freiermuth's recent-weighted average scaled by how generous the Saints were to the slot you picked. Change the slot and the projected points change, because each slot has a different matchup adjustment. Picking Top 3 uses the usual-role projection.
| Wk | Opp | Tgt | Rec | ReYd | ReTD | FPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ATL | 5 | 5 | 46 | 1 | 15.6 |
| 2 | NE | 5 | 4 | 32 | 0 | 7.4 |
| 3 | CIN | 4 | 2 | 30 | 0 | 5.1 |
| 4 | CLE | 5 | 3 | 17 | 1 | 10.7 |
| 5 | IND | 7 | 5 | 44 | 2 | 21.5 |
| 6 | TB | 3 | 2 | 11 | 0 | 3.1 |
| 7 | NO | 4 | 2 | 20 | 0 | 4.0 |
| 8 | CLE | 2 | 2 | 35 | 0 | 11.6 |
| Freiermuth avg | 4.4 | 3.1 | 29.4 | 0.5 | 9.9 | |
| Saints TE1 avg | 8.0 | 5.8 | 65.3 | 0.3 | 14.7 | |
| Difference | +3.6 | +2.7 | +36.0 | -0.2 | +4.8 | |
Difference is what the defense allows minus what Freiermuth averages (green = defense gives up more). Projected stats scale the player's averages by the matchup adjustment, so they are a rough guide.
Prediction & chance to scorePat Freiermuth vs the Saints
Prediction for Pat Freiermuth
Nobody knows which slot Pat Freiermuth will land in this week, so pick the one you expect. The projection changes because each slot faces a different average from the Saints.
I predict about 12.1 points for Pat Freiermuth if playing as a TE1. Pat Freiermuth has averaged 10.6 over 6 games, and the Saints have given up 14.7 to TE1s (+40% vs the league average of 10.5).
How this projection is built
1. The player. Pat Freiermuth scored: Wk 1 15.6, Wk 2 7.4, Wk 3 5.1, Wk 4 10.7, Wk 5 21.5, Wk 6 3.1. Average 10.6; weighted toward recent games it is 9.6.
2. The defense. Over 6 games, the Saints allowed 14.7 points to their opponent's TE1. The league average for that slot is 10.5, so that is +40%.
3. Trusting small samples less. With 6 defensive games, only 67% of the gap is applied, capped at +/-30%. That gives a +27% adjustment (x1.27).
4. Result. 9.6 x 1.27 = 12.1. Switching slots only changes step 2 and 3: the player's own numbers stay the same, but each slot faces a different defensive average.
It is a statistical model, not knowledge of injuries, game script or weather.
Chance to score
Type a point total to see how likely Pat Freiermuth is to reach it as a TE1.
Why this percentage?
The projection (12.1) is the middle of the range. Fantasy scores swing a lot from game to game, so the model spreads possible scores around it by about 6.9 points, leaning on Pat Freiermuth's own game-to-game swings once there are several games (and on typical TE swings before that).
Scores are modelled as right-skewed, since a big game is possible but a very negative one is not. The percentage is the share of that spread at or above 12.
With only 6 games of history, treat this as a rough gauge. It gets sharper as the season goes on. It is never lower than 1% or higher than 99%.
InsightsPlain-English takeaways from the table
- TE1s have averaged 5.8 receptions, 65.3 receiving yards and 0.3 receiving TDs against the Saints across 6 games.
- The Saints allow 14.7 PPR points to TE1s, +40% versus the league average of 10.5 (ranked 6 of 32, where 1 is most generous). That is a favorable matchup.
- Outlier: Week 3, Brock Bowers (27.6 pts, 10 rec, 116 yds) sits far above the other games and pulls the averages up. Average with it vs without it: pts 14.7 vs 12.1; rec 5.8 vs 5.0; yds 65.3 vs 55.2. The table above keeps the raw averages.
- Outlier: Week 6, Isaiah Likely (23.9 pts, 99 yds) sits far above the other games and pulls the averages up. Average with it vs without it: pts 14.7 vs 12.9; yds 65.3 vs 58.6. The table above keeps the raw averages.
- 6 of 6 games reached 7+ PPR points. Scores range from 7.7 to 27.6 (median 10.4).
- Every TE1 in the sample cleared 30 receiving yards.
- TE1s scored a touchdown in 2 of 6 games (33%).
Insights are generated by rules from the table above and recalculate every week.