Kenny Gainwell
RB
Tampa Bay BuccaneersQ▲ Hot
- Teammate Emeka Egbuka (a top target) is questionable.
A hurt top target or lead back nudges the projection up a little, since their work tends to shift to teammates. QB and offensive-line flags are shown for context but do not change the number.
This is how RBs have played against the Vikings in the 2026 season.
RB2 = the second-highest-scoring RB against Vikings in each game, not a fixed depth-chart spot.
| Wk | Team | Player | Car | RuYd | RuTD | Tgt | Rec | ReYd | ReTD | FPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  GB | Chris Brooks | 7 | 29 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.9 |
| 2 |  CHI | Kyle Monangai | 10 | 47 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 11 | 0 | 7.8 |
| Average | 8.5 | 38.0 | 0.0 | 1.5 | 1.0 | 5.5 | 0.0 | 5.3 | ||
| Median | 8.5 | 38.0 | 0.0 | 1.5 | 1.0 | 5.5 | 0.0 | 5.3 | ||
| High | 10 | 47 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 11 | 0 | 7.8 | ||
| Low | 7 | 29 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.9 | ||
Averages are raw, outliers are never removed.
How Kenny Gainwell should do vs the VikingsSeason log, the group you pick, and a projection
Season so far, compared with what the group you pick below has done against the Vikings, plus a projection for this game.
What is this table?
Rows at the top are every game Kenny Gainwell has played this season, using the same stat columns as the table above.
Compare against picks which group of Vikings opponents to line them up with: the best RB they faced in each game (1), the second best (2), the third best (3), or all of the top three. Nobody knows which slot Kenny Gainwell will land in this week, so this is your call, not a guess.
Vikings avg is the average line of that group. Difference is that minus Kenny Gainwell's own average: green means the defense gives that slot more than Kenny Gainwell usually produces.
Projected is Kenny Gainwell's recent-weighted average scaled by how generous the Vikings were to the slot you picked. Change the slot and the projected points change, because each slot has a different matchup adjustment. Picking Top 3 uses the usual-role projection.
| Wk | Opp | Car | RuYd | RuTD | Tgt | Rec | ReYd | ReTD | FPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | CIN | 5 | 15 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 2.8 |
| 2 | CLE | 2 | 10 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 5 | 0 | 4.5 |
| 3 | MIN | 3 | -4 | 0 | 5 | 2 | 14 | 0 | 3.0 |
| 4 | GB | 3 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 22 | 1 | 10.7 |
| 5 | DAL | 4 | 18 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 10 | 0 | 5.8 |
| 6 | PIT | 2 | 17 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 | 3.4 |
| 7 | CAR | 14 | 88 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8.8 |
| 8 | ATL | 25 | 140 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14.0 |
| Gainwell avg | 7.3 | 36.1 | 0.0 | 2.3 | 1.5 | 7.6 | 0.1 | 6.6 | |
| Vikings RB2 avg | 8.5 | 38.0 | 0.0 | 1.5 | 1.0 | 5.5 | 0.0 | 5.3 | |
| Difference | +1.3 | +1.9 | +0.0 | -0.8 | -0.5 | -2.1 | -0.1 | -1.3 | |
Difference is what the defense allows minus what Gainwell averages (green = defense gives up more). Projected stats scale the player's averages by the matchup adjustment, so they are a rough guide.
Prediction & chance to scoreKenny Gainwell vs the Vikings
Prediction for Kenny Gainwell
Nobody knows which slot Kenny Gainwell will land in this week, so pick the one you expect. The projection changes because each slot faces a different average from the Vikings.
I predict about 8.8 points for Kenny Gainwell if playing as a RB2. Kenny Gainwell has averaged 3.6 over 2 games, and the Vikings have given up 5.3 to RB2s (+12% vs the league average of 4.8).
How this projection is built
1. The player. Kenny Gainwell scored: Wk 1 2.8, Wk 2 4.5. Average 3.6; weighted toward recent games it is 8.4.
2. The defense. Over 2 games, the Vikings allowed 5.3 points to their opponent's RB2. The league average for that slot is 4.8, so that is +12%.
3. Trusting small samples less. With 2 defensive games, only 40% of the gap is applied, capped at +/-30%. That gives a +5% adjustment (x1.05).
4. Result. 8.4 x 1.05 = 8.8. Switching slots only changes step 2 and 3: the player's own numbers stay the same, but each slot faces a different defensive average.
It is a statistical model, not knowledge of injuries, game script or weather.
Chance to score
Type a point total to see how likely Kenny Gainwell is to reach it as a RB2.
Why this percentage?
The projection (8.8) is the middle of the range. Fantasy scores swing a lot from game to game, so the model spreads possible scores around it by about 5.3 points, leaning on Kenny Gainwell's own game-to-game swings once there are several games (and on typical RB swings before that).
Scores are modelled as right-skewed, since a big game is possible but a very negative one is not. The percentage is the share of that spread at or above 9.
With only 2 games of history, treat this as a rough gauge. It gets sharper as the season goes on. It is never lower than 1% or higher than 99%.
InsightsPlain-English takeaways from the table
- RB2s have averaged 8.5 carries, 38.0 rushing yards and 1.0 receptions against the Vikings across 2 games.
- The Vikings allow 5.3 PPR points to RB2s, +12% versus the league average of 4.8 (ranked 8 of 32, where 1 is most generous). That is a favorable matchup.
- 0 of 2 games reached 10+ PPR points. Scores range from 2.9 to 7.8 (median 5.3).
- RB2s scored a touchdown in 0 of 2 games (0%).
- Small sample: only 2 games so far. Treat these numbers as directional, not settled.
Insights are generated by rules from the table above and recalculate every week.