Michael Carter
RB
Tennessee Titans
- Teammate Carnell Tate (a top target) is out, so Carter may see more targets.
A hurt top target or lead back nudges the projection up a little, since their work tends to shift to teammates. QB and offensive-line flags are shown for context but do not change the number.
This is how RBs have played against the Bengals in the 2026 season.
RB2 = the second-highest-scoring RB against Bengals in each game, not a fixed depth-chart spot.
| Wk | Team | Player | Car | RuYd | RuTD | Tgt | Rec | ReYd | ReTD | FPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  TB | Kenny Gainwell | 5 | 15 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 2.8 |
| 2 |  HOU | David Montgomery | 6 | 10 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 14 | 0 | 4.4 |
| 3 |  PIT | Travis Homer | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.0 |
| 4 |  JAX | Chris Rodriguez Jr. | 6 | 35 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9.5 |
| 5 |  MIA | Jaylen Wright | 6 | 11 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.1 |
| 7 |  BAL | Derrick Henry | 17 | 45 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 5.9 |
| Average | 6.8 | 19.3 | 0.2 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 3.5 | 0.0 | 4.0 | ||
| Median | 6.0 | 13.0 | 0.0 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 1.5 | 0.0 | 3.6 | ||
| High | 17 | 45 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 14 | 0 | 9.5 | ||
| Low | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.0 | ||
Averages are raw, outliers are never removed.
How Michael Carter should do vs the BengalsSeason log, the group you pick, and a projection
Season so far, compared with what the group you pick below has done against the Bengals, plus a projection for this game.
What is this table?
Rows at the top are every game Michael Carter has played this season, using the same stat columns as the table above.
Compare against picks which group of Bengals opponents to line them up with: the best RB they faced in each game (1), the second best (2), the third best (3), or all of the top three. Nobody knows which slot Michael Carter will land in this week, so this is your call, not a guess.
Bengals avg is the average line of that group. Difference is that minus Michael Carter's own average: green means the defense gives that slot more than Michael Carter usually produces.
Projected is Michael Carter's recent-weighted average scaled by how generous the Bengals were to the slot you picked. Change the slot and the projected points change, because each slot has a different matchup adjustment. Picking Top 3 uses the usual-role projection.
| Wk | Opp | Car | RuYd | RuTD | Tgt | Rec | ReYd | ReTD | FPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | CLE | 3 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 | 2.4 |
| Carter avg | 3.0 | 7.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 7.0 | 0.0 | 2.4 | |
| Bengals RB2 avg | 6.8 | 19.3 | 0.2 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 3.5 | 0.0 | 4.0 | |
| Difference | +3.8 | +12.3 | +0.2 | -0.2 | -0.3 | -3.5 | +0.0 | +1.6 | |
Difference is what the defense allows minus what Carter averages (green = defense gives up more). Projected stats scale the player's averages by the matchup adjustment, so they are a rough guide.
Prediction & chance to scoreMichael Carter vs the Bengals
Prediction for Michael Carter
Nobody knows which slot Michael Carter will land in this week, so pick the one you expect. The projection changes because each slot faces a different average from the Bengals.
I predict about 5.1 points for Michael Carter if playing as a RB2. Michael Carter has averaged 2.4 over 1 game, and the Bengals have given up 4.0 to RB2s (-21% vs the league average of 5.0).
How this projection is built
1. The player. Michael Carter scored: Wk 7 2.4. Average 2.4; weighted toward recent games it is 5.9.
2. The defense. Over 6 games, the Bengals allowed 4.0 points to their opponent's RB2. The league average for that slot is 5.0, so that is -21%.
3. Trusting small samples less. With 6 defensive games, only 67% of the gap is applied, capped at +/-30%. That gives a -14% adjustment (x0.86).
4. Result. 5.9 x 0.86 = 5.1. Switching slots only changes step 2 and 3: the player's own numbers stay the same, but each slot faces a different defensive average.
It is a statistical model, not knowledge of injuries, game script or weather.
Chance to score
Type a point total to see how likely Michael Carter is to reach it as a RB2.
Why this percentage?
The projection (5.1) is the middle of the range. Fantasy scores swing a lot from game to game, so the model spreads possible scores around it by about 3.0 points, leaning on Michael Carter's own game-to-game swings once there are several games (and on typical RB swings before that).
Scores are modelled as right-skewed, since a big game is possible but a very negative one is not. The percentage is the share of that spread at or above 5.
With only 1 game of history, treat this as a rough gauge. It gets sharper as the season goes on. It is never lower than 1% or higher than 99%.
InsightsPlain-English takeaways from the table
- RB2s have averaged 6.8 carries, 19.3 rushing yards and 0.7 receptions against the Bengals across 6 games.
- The Bengals allow 4.0 PPR points to RB2s, -21% versus the league average of 5.0 (ranked 25 of 32, where 1 is most generous). That is a tough matchup.
- Outlier: Week 4, Chris Rodriguez Jr. (9.5 pts) sits far above the other games and pulls the averages up. Average with it vs without it: pts 4.0 vs 2.8. The table above keeps the raw averages.
- Outlier: Week 7, Derrick Henry (17 car) sits far above the other games and pulls the averages up. Average with it vs without it: car 6.8 vs 4.8. The table above keeps the raw averages.
- 0 of 6 games reached 10+ PPR points. Scores range from 0.0 to 9.5 (median 3.6).
- RB2s scored a touchdown in 1 of 6 games (17%).
Insights are generated by rules from the table above and recalculate every week.