Amon-Ra St. Brown
WR
Detroit LionsQ
This is how WRs have played against the Panthers in the 2026 season.
WR2 = the second-highest-scoring WR against Panthers in each game, not a fixed depth-chart spot.
| Wk | Team | Player | Tgt | Rec | ReYd | ReTD | FPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  CHI | Luther Burden III | 5 | 5 | 63 | 0 | 9.5 |
| 2 |  ATL | Zachariah Branch | 2 | 2 | 14 | 0 | 3.4 |
| 3 |  CLE | KC Concepcion | 9 | 2 | 9 | 0 | 2.9 |
| Average | 5.3 | 3.0 | 28.7 | 0.0 | 5.3 | ||
| Median | 5.0 | 2.0 | 14.0 | 0.0 | 3.4 | ||
| High | 9 | 5 | 63 | 0 | 9.5 | ||
| Low | 2 | 2 | 9 | 0 | 2.9 | ||
Averages are raw, outliers are never removed.
How Amon-Ra St. Brown should do vs the PanthersSeason log, the group you pick, and a projection
Season so far, compared with what the group you pick below has done against the Panthers, plus a projection for this game.
What is this table?
Rows at the top are every game Amon-Ra St. Brown has played this season, using the same stat columns as the table above.
Compare against picks which group of Panthers opponents to line them up with: the best WR they faced in each game (1), the second best (2), the third best (3), or all of the top three. Nobody knows which slot Amon-Ra St. Brown will land in this week, so this is your call, not a guess.
Panthers avg is the average line of that group. Difference is that minus Amon-Ra St. Brown's own average: green means the defense gives that slot more than Amon-Ra St. Brown usually produces.
Projected is Amon-Ra St. Brown's recent-weighted average scaled by how generous the Panthers were to the slot you picked. Change the slot and the projected points change, because each slot has a different matchup adjustment. Picking Top 3 uses the usual-role projection.
| Wk | Opp | Tgt | Rec | ReYd | ReTD | FPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | NO | 14 | 10 | 67 | 2 | 28.7 |
| 2 | BUF | 13 | 9 | 142 | 2 | 35.2 |
| 3 | NYJ | 8 | 4 | 19 | 1 | 11.9 |
| 4 | CAR | 11 | 8 | 75 | 0 | 15.5 |
| 5 | ARI | 11 | 6 | 69 | 0 | 12.9 |
| 7 | GB | 11 | 9 | 153 | 0 | 24.2 |
| 8 | MIN | 8 | 7 | 46 | 0 | 12.6 |
| Brown avg | 10.9 | 7.6 | 81.6 | 0.7 | 20.1 | |
| Panthers WR2 avg | 5.3 | 3.0 | 28.7 | 0.0 | 5.3 | |
| Difference | -5.5 | -4.6 | -52.9 | -0.7 | -14.9 | |
Difference is what the defense allows minus what Brown averages (green = defense gives up more). Projected stats scale the player's averages by the matchup adjustment, so they are a rough guide.
Prediction & chance to scoreAmon-Ra St. Brown vs the Panthers
Prediction for Amon-Ra St. Brown
Nobody knows which slot Amon-Ra St. Brown will land in this week, so pick the one you expect. The projection changes because each slot faces a different average from the Panthers.
I predict about 17.7 points for Amon-Ra St. Brown if playing as a WR2. Amon-Ra St. Brown has averaged 25.3 over 3 games, and the Panthers have given up 5.3 to WR2s (-39% vs the league average of 8.7).
How this projection is built
1. The player. Amon-Ra St. Brown scored: Wk 1 28.7, Wk 2 35.2, Wk 3 11.9. Average 25.3; weighted toward recent games it is 22.0.
2. The defense. Over 3 games, the Panthers allowed 5.3 points to their opponent's WR2. The league average for that slot is 8.7, so that is -39%.
3. Trusting small samples less. With 3 defensive games, only 50% of the gap is applied, capped at +/-30%. That gives a -20% adjustment (x0.80).
4. Result. 22.0 x 0.80 = 17.7. Switching slots only changes step 2 and 3: the player's own numbers stay the same, but each slot faces a different defensive average.
It is a statistical model, not knowledge of injuries, game script or weather.
Chance to score
Type a point total to see how likely Amon-Ra St. Brown is to reach it as a WR2.
Why this percentage?
The projection (17.7) is the middle of the range. Fantasy scores swing a lot from game to game, so the model spreads possible scores around it by about 11.3 points, leaning on Amon-Ra St. Brown's own game-to-game swings once there are several games (and on typical WR swings before that).
Scores are modelled as right-skewed, since a big game is possible but a very negative one is not. The percentage is the share of that spread at or above 18.
With only 3 games of history, treat this as a rough gauge. It gets sharper as the season goes on. It is never lower than 1% or higher than 99%.
InsightsPlain-English takeaways from the table
- WR2s have averaged 3.0 receptions, 28.7 receiving yards and 0.0 receiving TDs against the Panthers across 3 games.
- The Panthers allow 5.3 PPR points to WR2s, -39% versus the league average of 8.7 (ranked 31 of 32, where 1 is most generous). That is a tough matchup.
- Outlier: Week 1, Luther Burden III (9.5 pts, 5 rec, 63 yds) sits far above the other games and pulls the averages up. Average with it vs without it: pts 5.3 vs 3.1; rec 3.0 vs 2.0; yds 28.7 vs 11.5. The table above keeps the raw averages.
- 0 of 3 games reached 10+ PPR points. Scores range from 2.9 to 9.5 (median 3.4).
- WR2s scored a touchdown in 0 of 3 games (0%).
Insights are generated by rules from the table above and recalculate every week.