Amon-Ra St. Brown
WR
Detroit LionsQ
This is how WRs have played against the Packers in the 2026 season.
WR2 = the second-highest-scoring WR against Packers in each game, not a fixed depth-chart spot.
| Wk | Team | Player | Tgt | Rec | ReYd | ReTD | FPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  MIN | Jordan Addison | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.0 |
| 2 |  NYJ | Adonai Mitchell | 12 | 6 | 63 | 0 | 12.3 |
| 3 |  ATL | Olamide Zaccheaus | 2 | 2 | 9 | 0 | 2.9 |
| 4 |  TB | Tez Johnson | 2 | 2 | 17 | 0 | 4.7 |
| 5 |  CHI | Rome Odunze | 9 | 3 | 40 | 0 | 5.0 |
| 6 |  DAL | CeeDee Lamb | 18 | 9 | 70 | 0 | 16.0 |
| Average | 7.5 | 3.7 | 33.2 | 0.0 | 6.8 | ||
| Median | 5.5 | 2.5 | 28.5 | 0.0 | 4.8 | ||
| High | 18 | 9 | 70 | 0 | 16.0 | ||
| Low | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.0 | ||
Averages are raw, outliers are never removed.
How Amon-Ra St. Brown should do vs the PackersSeason log, the group you pick, and a projection
Season so far, compared with what the group you pick below has done against the Packers, plus a projection for this game.
What is this table?
Rows at the top are every game Amon-Ra St. Brown has played this season, using the same stat columns as the table above.
Compare against picks which group of Packers opponents to line them up with: the best WR they faced in each game (1), the second best (2), the third best (3), or all of the top three. Nobody knows which slot Amon-Ra St. Brown will land in this week, so this is your call, not a guess.
Packers avg is the average line of that group. Difference is that minus Amon-Ra St. Brown's own average: green means the defense gives that slot more than Amon-Ra St. Brown usually produces.
Projected is Amon-Ra St. Brown's recent-weighted average scaled by how generous the Packers were to the slot you picked. Change the slot and the projected points change, because each slot has a different matchup adjustment. Picking Top 3 uses the usual-role projection.
| Wk | Opp | Tgt | Rec | ReYd | ReTD | FPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | NO | 14 | 10 | 67 | 2 | 28.7 |
| 2 | BUF | 13 | 9 | 142 | 2 | 35.2 |
| 3 | NYJ | 8 | 4 | 19 | 1 | 11.9 |
| 4 | CAR | 11 | 8 | 75 | 0 | 15.5 |
| 5 | ARI | 11 | 6 | 69 | 0 | 12.9 |
| 7 | GB | 11 | 9 | 153 | 0 | 24.2 |
| 8 | MIN | 8 | 7 | 46 | 0 | 12.6 |
| Brown avg | 10.9 | 7.6 | 81.6 | 0.7 | 20.1 | |
| Packers WR2 avg | 7.5 | 3.7 | 33.2 | 0.0 | 6.8 | |
| Difference | -3.4 | -3.9 | -48.4 | -0.7 | -13.3 | |
Difference is what the defense allows minus what Brown averages (green = defense gives up more). Projected stats scale the player's averages by the matchup adjustment, so they are a rough guide.
Prediction & chance to scoreAmon-Ra St. Brown vs the Packers
Prediction for Amon-Ra St. Brown
Nobody knows which slot Amon-Ra St. Brown will land in this week, so pick the one you expect. The projection changes because each slot faces a different average from the Packers.
I predict about 15.9 points for Amon-Ra St. Brown if playing as a WR2. Amon-Ra St. Brown has averaged 20.8 over 5 games, and the Packers have given up 6.8 to WR2s (-23% vs the league average of 8.9).
How this projection is built
1. The player. Amon-Ra St. Brown scored: Wk 1 28.7, Wk 2 35.2, Wk 3 11.9, Wk 4 15.5, Wk 5 12.9. Average 20.8; weighted toward recent games it is 18.8.
2. The defense. Over 6 games, the Packers allowed 6.8 points to their opponent's WR2. The league average for that slot is 8.9, so that is -23%.
3. Trusting small samples less. With 6 defensive games, only 67% of the gap is applied, capped at +/-30%. That gives a -15% adjustment (x0.85).
4. Result. 18.8 x 0.85 = 15.9. Switching slots only changes step 2 and 3: the player's own numbers stay the same, but each slot faces a different defensive average.
It is a statistical model, not knowledge of injuries, game script or weather.
Chance to score
Type a point total to see how likely Amon-Ra St. Brown is to reach it as a WR2.
Why this percentage?
The projection (15.9) is the middle of the range. Fantasy scores swing a lot from game to game, so the model spreads possible scores around it by about 10.3 points, leaning on Amon-Ra St. Brown's own game-to-game swings once there are several games (and on typical WR swings before that).
Scores are modelled as right-skewed, since a big game is possible but a very negative one is not. The percentage is the share of that spread at or above 16.
With only 5 games of history, treat this as a rough gauge. It gets sharper as the season goes on. It is never lower than 1% or higher than 99%.
InsightsPlain-English takeaways from the table
- WR2s have averaged 3.7 receptions, 33.2 receiving yards and 0.0 receiving TDs against the Packers across 6 games.
- The Packers allow 6.8 PPR points to WR2s, -23% versus the league average of 8.9 (ranked 30 of 32, where 1 is most generous). That is a tough matchup.
- Outlier: Week 6, CeeDee Lamb (16.0 pts, 9 rec, 70 yds) sits far above the other games and pulls the averages up. Average with it vs without it: pts 6.8 vs 5.0; rec 3.7 vs 2.6; yds 33.2 vs 25.8. The table above keeps the raw averages.
- Outlier: Week 1, Jordan Addison (0.0 pts, 0 rec, 0 yds) sits far below the other games and drags the averages down. Average with it vs without it: pts 6.8 vs 8.2; rec 3.7 vs 4.4; yds 33.2 vs 39.8. The table above keeps the raw averages.
- 2 of 6 games reached 10+ PPR points. Scores range from 0.0 to 16.0 (median 4.8).
- WR2s scored a touchdown in 0 of 6 games (0%).
Insights are generated by rules from the table above and recalculate every week.