Amon-Ra St. Brown
WR
Detroit LionsQ
This is how WRs have played against the Buccaneers in the 2026 season.
WR2 = the second-highest-scoring WR against Buccaneers in each game, not a fixed depth-chart spot.
| Wk | Team | Player | Tgt | Rec | ReYd | ReTD | FPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  CIN | Dohnte Meyers | 1 | 1 | 18 | 0 | 3.8 |
| 2 |  CLE | KC Concepcion | 6 | 6 | 28 | 0 | 8.2 |
| 3 |  MIN | Justin Jefferson | 2 | 2 | 32 | 0 | 5.2 |
| 4 |  GB | Christian Watson | 3 | 3 | 47 | 0 | 7.7 |
| 5 |  DAL | Ryan Flournoy | 4 | 3 | 90 | 0 | 12.0 |
| 6 |  PIT | DK Metcalf | 15 | 11 | 93 | 0 | 20.3 |
| 7 |  CAR | John Metchie III | 4 | 2 | 20 | 0 | 4.0 |
| 8 |  ATL | Drake London | 6 | 1 | 8 | 0 | 1.8 |
| Average | 5.1 | 3.6 | 42.0 | 0.0 | 7.9 | ||
| Median | 4.0 | 2.5 | 30.0 | 0.0 | 6.5 | ||
| High | 15 | 11 | 93 | 0 | 20.3 | ||
| Low | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 | 1.8 | ||
Averages are raw, outliers are never removed.
How Amon-Ra St. Brown should do vs the BuccaneersSeason log, the group you pick, and a projection
Season so far, compared with what the group you pick below has done against the Buccaneers, plus a projection for this game.
What is this table?
Rows at the top are every game Amon-Ra St. Brown has played this season, using the same stat columns as the table above.
Compare against picks which group of Buccaneers opponents to line them up with: the best WR they faced in each game (1), the second best (2), the third best (3), or all of the top three. Nobody knows which slot Amon-Ra St. Brown will land in this week, so this is your call, not a guess.
Buccaneers avg is the average line of that group. Difference is that minus Amon-Ra St. Brown's own average: green means the defense gives that slot more than Amon-Ra St. Brown usually produces.
Projected is Amon-Ra St. Brown's recent-weighted average scaled by how generous the Buccaneers were to the slot you picked. Change the slot and the projected points change, because each slot has a different matchup adjustment. Picking Top 3 uses the usual-role projection.
| Wk | Opp | Tgt | Rec | ReYd | ReTD | FPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | NO | 14 | 10 | 67 | 2 | 28.7 |
| 2 | BUF | 13 | 9 | 142 | 2 | 35.2 |
| 3 | NYJ | 8 | 4 | 19 | 1 | 11.9 |
| 4 | CAR | 11 | 8 | 75 | 0 | 15.5 |
| 5 | ARI | 11 | 6 | 69 | 0 | 12.9 |
| 7 | GB | 11 | 9 | 153 | 0 | 24.2 |
| 8 | MIN | 8 | 7 | 46 | 0 | 12.6 |
| Brown avg | 10.9 | 7.6 | 81.6 | 0.7 | 20.1 | |
| Buccaneers WR2 avg | 5.1 | 3.6 | 42.0 | 0.0 | 7.9 | |
| Difference | -5.7 | -3.9 | -39.6 | -0.7 | -12.3 | |
| Projected as WR2 | 10.1 | 7.0 | 75.6 | 0.7 | 17.1 | |
Difference is what the defense allows minus what Brown averages (green = defense gives up more). Projected stats scale the player's averages by the matchup adjustment, so they are a rough guide.
Start / Sit · Amon-Ra St. BrownGood confidence · 17.1 proj pts7/10 start
- Amon-Ra St. Brown averages 20.1 PPR points over 7 games (recent-weighted 18.2) and has played as the team's WR2.
- The Buccaneers have allowed 7.9 points to WR2s over 8 games (-10% vs league). The model applies 73% of that gap because the sample is small, giving a -7% adjustment.
- Last season's average (19.1) is blended in at 22% weight because this season's sample is small.
- Injury report: Questionable. The projection assumes the player plays.
- Projection: 17.1 points.
- For reference, a typical weekly starter-level WR scores about 12.2 and a top-tier one about 20.9.
- A statistical model from box scores, Vegas lines, weather and injury tags. It cannot see role changes or in-game events.
Prediction & chance to scoreAmon-Ra St. Brown vs the Buccaneers
Prediction for Amon-Ra St. Brown
Nobody knows which slot Amon-Ra St. Brown will land in this week, so pick the one you expect. The projection changes because each slot faces a different average from the Buccaneers.
I predict about 17.1 points for Amon-Ra St. Brown if playing as a WR2. Amon-Ra St. Brown has averaged 20.1 over 7 games, and the Buccaneers have given up 7.9 to WR2s (-10% vs the league average of 8.8).
How this projection is built
1. The player. Amon-Ra St. Brown scored: Wk 1 28.7, Wk 2 35.2, Wk 3 11.9, Wk 4 15.5, Wk 5 12.9, Wk 7 24.2, Wk 8 12.6. Average 20.1; weighted toward recent games it is 18.4.
2. The defense. Over 8 games, the Buccaneers allowed 7.9 points to their opponent's WR2. The league average for that slot is 8.8, so that is -10%.
3. Trusting small samples less. With 8 defensive games, only 73% of the gap is applied, capped at +/-30%. That gives a -7% adjustment (x0.93).
4. Result. 18.4 x 0.93 = 17.1. Switching slots only changes step 2 and 3: the player's own numbers stay the same, but each slot faces a different defensive average.
It is a statistical model, not knowledge of injuries, game script or weather.
Chance to score
Type a point total to see how likely Amon-Ra St. Brown is to reach it as a WR2.
Why this percentage?
The projection (17.1) is the middle of the range. Fantasy scores swing a lot from game to game, so the model spreads possible scores around it by about 9.3 points, leaning on Amon-Ra St. Brown's own game-to-game swings once there are several games (and on typical WR swings before that).
Scores are modelled as right-skewed, since a big game is possible but a very negative one is not. The percentage is the share of that spread at or above 17.
With only 7 games of history, treat this as a rough gauge. It gets sharper as the season goes on. It is never lower than 1% or higher than 99%.
InsightsPlain-English takeaways from the table
- WR2s have averaged 3.6 receptions, 42.0 receiving yards and 0.0 receiving TDs against the Buccaneers across 8 games.
- The Buccaneers allow 7.9 PPR points to WR2s, -10% versus the league average of 8.8 (ranked 22 of 32, where 1 is most generous). That is a tough matchup.
- Outlier: Week 6, DK Metcalf (20.3 pts, 11 rec, 93 yds) sits far above the other games and pulls the averages up. Average with it vs without it: pts 7.9 vs 6.1; rec 3.6 vs 2.6; yds 42.0 vs 34.7. The table above keeps the raw averages.
- Outlier: Week 8, Drake London (1.8 pts, 1 rec, 8 yds) sits far below the other games and drags the averages down. Average with it vs without it: pts 7.9 vs 8.7; rec 3.6 vs 4.0; yds 42.0 vs 46.9. The table above keeps the raw averages.
- 2 of 8 games reached 10+ PPR points. Scores range from 1.8 to 20.3 (median 6.5).
- WR2s scored a touchdown in 0 of 8 games (0%).
Insights are generated by rules from the table above and recalculate every week.