Jaylen Warren
RB
Pittsburgh Steelers
This is how RBs have played against the Colts in the 2026 season.
RB1 = the highest-scoring RB against Colts in each game, not a fixed depth-chart spot.
| Wk | Team | Player | Car | RuYd | RuTD | Tgt | Rec | ReYd | ReTD | FPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  BAL | Derrick Henry | 24 | 144 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 19 | 0 | 35.3 |
| 2 |  KC | Kenneth Walker III | 24 | 117 | 0 | 10 | 6 | 61 | 0 | 23.8 |
| 3 |  HOU | Woody Marks | 5 | 15 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 | 9.1 |
| 4 |  WAS | Jacory Croskey-Merritt | 9 | 15 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 35 | 0 | 7.0 |
| Average | 15.5 | 72.8 | 1.0 | 4.0 | 2.5 | 30.3 | 0.0 | 18.8 | ||
| Median | 16.5 | 66.0 | 0.5 | 2.5 | 1.5 | 27.0 | 0.0 | 16.4 | ||
| High | 24 | 144 | 3 | 10 | 6 | 61 | 0 | 35.3 | ||
| Low | 5 | 15 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 | 7.0 | ||
Averages are raw, outliers are never removed.
How Jaylen Warren should do vs the ColtsSeason log, the group you pick, and a projection
Season so far, compared with what the group you pick below has done against the Colts, plus a projection for this game.
What is this table?
Rows at the top are every game Jaylen Warren has played this season, using the same stat columns as the table above.
Compare against picks which group of Colts opponents to line them up with: the best RB they faced in each game (1), the second best (2), the third best (3), or all of the top three. Nobody knows which slot Jaylen Warren will land in this week, so this is your call, not a guess.
Colts avg is the average line of that group. Difference is that minus Jaylen Warren's own average: green means the defense gives that slot more than Jaylen Warren usually produces.
Projected is Jaylen Warren's recent-weighted average scaled by how generous the Colts were to the slot you picked. Change the slot and the projected points change, because each slot has a different matchup adjustment. Picking Top 3 uses the usual-role projection.
| Wk | Opp | Car | RuYd | RuTD | Tgt | Rec | ReYd | ReTD | FPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ATL | 10 | 46 | 0 | 6 | 5 | 27 | 0 | 10.3 |
| 2 | NE | 11 | 43 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 34 | 0 | 9.7 |
| 3 | CIN | 17 | 127 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 49 | 0 | 20.6 |
| 4 | CLE | 17 | 93 | 0 | 6 | 3 | 33 | 0 | 15.6 |
| 5 | IND | 15 | 101 | 1 | 6 | 6 | 87 | 1 | 36.8 |
| 6 | TB | 14 | 50 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 28 | 0 | 9.8 |
| 7 | NO | 18 | 101 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 36 | 0 | 16.7 |
| 8 | CLE | 17 | 143 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 21.3 |
| Warren avg | 14.9 | 88.0 | 0.3 | 4.5 | 3.1 | 36.8 | 0.1 | 17.6 | |
| Colts RB1 avg | 15.5 | 72.8 | 1.0 | 4.0 | 2.5 | 30.3 | 0.0 | 18.8 | |
| Difference | +0.6 | -15.3 | +0.8 | -0.5 | -0.6 | -6.5 | -0.1 | +1.2 | |
Difference is what the defense allows minus what Warren averages (green = defense gives up more). Projected stats scale the player's averages by the matchup adjustment, so they are a rough guide.
Prediction & chance to scoreJaylen Warren vs the Colts
Prediction for Jaylen Warren
Nobody knows which slot Jaylen Warren will land in this week, so pick the one you expect. The projection changes because each slot faces a different average from the Colts.
I predict about 15.8 points for Jaylen Warren if playing as a RB1. Jaylen Warren has averaged 14.1 over 4 games, and the Colts have given up 18.8 to RB1s (+17% vs the league average of 16.0).
How this projection is built
1. The player. Jaylen Warren scored: Wk 1 10.3, Wk 2 9.7, Wk 3 20.6, Wk 4 15.6. Average 14.1; weighted toward recent games it is 14.4.
2. The defense. Over 4 games, the Colts allowed 18.8 points to their opponent's RB1. The league average for that slot is 16.0, so that is +17%.
3. Trusting small samples less. With 4 defensive games, only 57% of the gap is applied, capped at +/-30%. That gives a +10% adjustment (x1.10).
4. Result. 14.4 x 1.10 = 15.8. Switching slots only changes step 2 and 3: the player's own numbers stay the same, but each slot faces a different defensive average.
It is a statistical model, not knowledge of injuries, game script or weather.
Chance to score
Type a point total to see how likely Jaylen Warren is to reach it as a RB1.
Why this percentage?
The projection (15.8) is the middle of the range. Fantasy scores swing a lot from game to game, so the model spreads possible scores around it by about 6.6 points, leaning on Jaylen Warren's own game-to-game swings once there are several games (and on typical RB swings before that).
Scores are modelled as right-skewed, since a big game is possible but a very negative one is not. The percentage is the share of that spread at or above 16.
With only 4 games of history, treat this as a rough gauge. It gets sharper as the season goes on. It is never lower than 1% or higher than 99%.
InsightsPlain-English takeaways from the table
- RB1s have averaged 15.5 carries, 72.8 rushing yards and 2.5 receptions against the Colts across 4 games.
- The Colts allow 18.8 PPR points to RB1s, +17% versus the league average of 16.0 (ranked 7 of 32, where 1 is most generous). That is a favorable matchup.
- Outlier: Week 1, Derrick Henry (35.3 pts, 24 car, 144 rush yds) sits far above the other games and pulls the averages up. Average with it vs without it: pts 18.8 vs 13.3; car 15.5 vs 12.7; rush yds 72.8 vs 49.0. The table above keeps the raw averages.
- Outlier: Week 2, Kenneth Walker III (24 car, 117 rush yds) sits far above the other games and pulls the averages up. Average with it vs without it: car 15.5 vs 12.7; rush yds 72.8 vs 58.0. The table above keeps the raw averages.
- 2 of 4 games reached 10+ PPR points. Scores range from 7.0 to 35.3 (median 16.4).
- RB1s scored a touchdown in 2 of 4 games (50%).
Insights are generated by rules from the table above and recalculate every week.