Tyler Allgeier
RB
Arizona Cardinals▲ Hot
- Teammate Michael Wilson (a top target) is questionable.
- Teammate Kendrick Bourne (a top target) is on IR, so Allgeier may see more targets.
- Backfield mate Jeremiyah Love is on IR, so Allgeier could see more carries.
A hurt top target or lead back nudges the projection up a little, since their work tends to shift to teammates. QB and offensive-line flags are shown for context but do not change the number.
This is how RBs have played against the Saints in the 2026 season.
RB2 = the second-highest-scoring RB against Saints in each game, not a fixed depth-chart spot.
| Wk | Team | Player | Car | RuYd | RuTD | Tgt | Rec | ReYd | ReTD | FPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  DET | Sione Vaki | 2 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 11 | 0 | 2.8 |
| 2 |  BAL | Justice Hill | 2 | 6 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 12 | 0 | 3.8 |
| 3 |  LV | Mike Washington Jr. | 5 | 54 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11.4 |
| 4 |  ATL | Brian Robinson | 14 | 62 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 25.7 |
| 5 |  MIN | DeeJay Dallas | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 11 | 0 | 2.1 |
| 6 |  NYG | Devin Singletary | 4 | 14 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 19 | 0 | 4.3 |
| 7 |  PIT | Rico Dowdle | 9 | 41 | 0 | 6 | 6 | 45 | 0 | 14.6 |
| Average | 5.1 | 26.3 | 0.6 | 1.7 | 1.7 | 14.7 | 0.0 | 9.2 | ||
| Median | 4.0 | 14.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 11.0 | 0.0 | 4.3 | ||
| High | 14 | 62 | 3 | 6 | 6 | 45 | 0 | 25.7 | ||
| Low | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.1 | ||
Averages are raw, outliers are never removed.
How Tyler Allgeier should do vs the SaintsSeason log, the group you pick, and a projection
Season so far, compared with what the group you pick below has done against the Saints, plus a projection for this game.
What is this table?
Rows at the top are every game Tyler Allgeier has played this season, using the same stat columns as the table above.
Compare against picks which group of Saints opponents to line them up with: the best RB they faced in each game (1), the second best (2), the third best (3), or all of the top three. Nobody knows which slot Tyler Allgeier will land in this week, so this is your call, not a guess.
Saints avg is the average line of that group. Difference is that minus Tyler Allgeier's own average: green means the defense gives that slot more than Tyler Allgeier usually produces.
Projected is Tyler Allgeier's recent-weighted average scaled by how generous the Saints were to the slot you picked. Change the slot and the projected points change, because each slot has a different matchup adjustment. Picking Top 3 uses the usual-role projection.
| Wk | Opp | Car | RuYd | RuTD | Tgt | Rec | ReYd | ReTD | FPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | LAC | 17 | 61 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 9 | 0 | 9.0 |
| 2 | SEA | 5 | 10 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 9 | 0 | 3.9 |
| 3 | SF | 2 | -1 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 10 | 0 | 4.9 |
| 4 | NYG | 8 | 42 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 7 | 0 | 12.9 |
| 5 | DET | 3 | 7 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 9 | 0 | 3.6 |
| 6 | LA | 18 | 38 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 10 | 0 | 5.8 |
| 7 | DEN | 8 | 19 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 30 | 0 | 7.9 |
| 8 | DAL | 11 | 147 | 1 | 5 | 5 | 44 | 1 | 36.1 |
| Allgeier avg | 9.0 | 40.4 | 0.3 | 2.8 | 2.6 | 16.0 | 0.1 | 10.5 | |
| Saints RB2 avg | 5.1 | 26.3 | 0.6 | 1.7 | 1.7 | 14.7 | 0.0 | 9.2 | |
| Difference | -3.9 | -14.1 | +0.3 | -1.0 | -0.9 | -1.3 | -0.1 | -1.3 | |
| Projected as RB2 | 11.7 | 52.5 | 0.3 | 3.6 | 3.4 | 20.8 | 0.2 | 16.3 | |
Difference is what the defense allows minus what Allgeier averages (green = defense gives up more). Projected stats scale the player's averages by the matchup adjustment, so they are a rough guide.
Start / Sit · Tyler AllgeierGood confidence · 16.3 proj pts7/10 start
- Tyler Allgeier averages 10.5 PPR points over 8 games (recent-weighted 13.9) and has played as the team's RB2.
- The Saints have allowed 9.2 points to RB2s over 7 games (+82% vs league). The model applies 70% of that gap because the sample is small, giving a +30% adjustment.
- Last season's average (7.2) is blended in at 20% weight because this season's sample is small.
- Projection: 16.3 points.
- For reference, a typical weekly starter-level RB scores about 13.1 and a top-tier one about 20.9.
- A statistical model from box scores, Vegas lines, weather and injury tags. It cannot see role changes or in-game events.
Prediction & chance to scoreTyler Allgeier vs the Saints
Prediction for Tyler Allgeier
Nobody knows which slot Tyler Allgeier will land in this week, so pick the one you expect. The projection changes because each slot faces a different average from the Saints.
I predict about 16.3 points for Tyler Allgeier if playing as a RB2. Tyler Allgeier has averaged 10.5 over 8 games, and the Saints have given up 9.2 to RB2s (+82% vs the league average of 5.1).
How this projection is built
1. The player. Tyler Allgeier scored: Wk 1 9.0, Wk 2 3.9, Wk 3 4.9, Wk 4 12.9, Wk 5 3.6, Wk 6 5.8, Wk 7 7.9, Wk 8 36.1. Average 10.5; weighted toward recent games it is 12.6.
2. The defense. Over 7 games, the Saints allowed 9.2 points to their opponent's RB2. The league average for that slot is 5.1, so that is +82%.
3. Trusting small samples less. With 7 defensive games, only 70% of the gap is applied, capped at +/-30%. That gives a +30% adjustment (x1.30).
4. Result. 12.6 x 1.30 = 16.3. Switching slots only changes step 2 and 3: the player's own numbers stay the same, but each slot faces a different defensive average.
It is a statistical model, not knowledge of injuries, game script or weather.
Chance to score
Type a point total to see how likely Tyler Allgeier is to reach it as a RB2.
Why this percentage?
The projection (16.3) is the middle of the range. Fantasy scores swing a lot from game to game, so the model spreads possible scores around it by about 10.8 points, leaning on Tyler Allgeier's own game-to-game swings once there are several games (and on typical RB swings before that).
Scores are modelled as right-skewed, since a big game is possible but a very negative one is not. The percentage is the share of that spread at or above 16.
With only 8 games of history, treat this as a rough gauge. It gets sharper as the season goes on. It is never lower than 1% or higher than 99%.
InsightsPlain-English takeaways from the table
- RB2s have averaged 5.1 carries, 26.3 rushing yards and 1.7 receptions against the Saints across 7 games.
- The Saints allow 9.2 PPR points to RB2s, +82% versus the league average of 5.1 (ranked 1 of 32, where 1 is most generous). That is a favorable matchup.
- Outlier: Week 4, Brian Robinson (25.7 pts, 14 car, 62 rush yds) sits far above the other games and pulls the averages up. Average with it vs without it: pts 9.2 vs 6.5; car 5.1 vs 3.7; rush yds 26.3 vs 20.3. The table above keeps the raw averages.
- Outlier: Week 7, Rico Dowdle (14.6 pts) sits far above the other games and pulls the averages up. Average with it vs without it: pts 9.2 vs 8.3. The table above keeps the raw averages.
- 3 of 7 games reached 10+ PPR points. Scores range from 2.1 to 25.7 (median 4.3).
- RB2s scored a touchdown in 2 of 7 games (29%).
Insights are generated by rules from the table above and recalculate every week.