Jalen Tolbert
WR
Miami Dolphins
This is how WRs have played against the Jets in the 2026 season.
WR3 = the third-highest-scoring WR against Jets in each game, not a fixed depth-chart spot.
| Wk | Team | Player | Tgt | Rec | ReYd | ReTD | FPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  TEN | Carnell Tate | 6 | 4 | 38 | 0 | 7.8 |
| 2 |  GB | Skyy Moore | 3 | 2 | 6 | 0 | 2.6 |
| 3 |  DET | Jameson Williams | 4 | 4 | 49 | 0 | 8.9 |
| 4 |  CHI | Kalif Raymond | 2 | 2 | 6 | 0 | 2.6 |
| 5 |  CLE | Jerry Jeudy | 7 | 3 | 19 | 0 | 4.9 |
| 6 |  NE | A.J. Brown | 10 | 3 | 27 | 0 | 5.7 |
| Average | 5.3 | 3.0 | 24.2 | 0.0 | 5.4 | ||
| Median | 5.0 | 3.0 | 23.0 | 0.0 | 5.3 | ||
| High | 10 | 4 | 49 | 0 | 8.9 | ||
| Low | 2 | 2 | 6 | 0 | 2.6 | ||
Averages are raw, outliers are never removed.
How Jalen Tolbert should do vs the JetsSeason log, the group you pick, and a projection
Season so far, compared with what the group you pick below has done against the Jets, plus a projection for this game.
What is this table?
Rows at the top are every game Jalen Tolbert has played this season, using the same stat columns as the table above.
Compare against picks which group of Jets opponents to line them up with: the best WR they faced in each game (1), the second best (2), the third best (3), or all of the top three. Nobody knows which slot Jalen Tolbert will land in this week, so this is your call, not a guess.
Jets avg is the average line of that group. Difference is that minus Jalen Tolbert's own average: green means the defense gives that slot more than Jalen Tolbert usually produces.
Projected is Jalen Tolbert's recent-weighted average scaled by how generous the Jets were to the slot you picked. Change the slot and the projected points change, because each slot has a different matchup adjustment. Picking Top 3 uses the usual-role projection.
| Wk | Opp | Tgt | Rec | ReYd | ReTD | FPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | MIN | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.0 |
| 5 | CIN | 2 | 1 | 22 | 0 | 3.2 |
| 8 | NE | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 | 1.8 |
| Tolbert avg | 1.3 | 0.7 | 10.0 | 0.0 | 1.7 | |
| Jets WR3 avg | 5.3 | 3.0 | 24.2 | 0.0 | 5.4 | |
| Difference | +4.0 | +2.3 | +14.2 | +0.0 | +3.8 | |
Difference is what the defense allows minus what Tolbert averages (green = defense gives up more). Projected stats scale the player's averages by the matchup adjustment, so they are a rough guide.
Prediction & chance to scoreJalen Tolbert vs the Jets
Prediction for Jalen Tolbert
Nobody knows which slot Jalen Tolbert will land in this week, so pick the one you expect. The projection changes because each slot faces a different average from the Jets.
I predict about 3.4 points for Jalen Tolbert if playing as a WR3. Jalen Tolbert has averaged 1.6 over 2 games, and the Jets have given up 5.4 to WR3s (+22% vs the league average of 4.4).
How this projection is built
1. The player. Jalen Tolbert scored: Wk 4 0.0, Wk 5 3.2. Average 1.6; weighted toward recent games it is 3.0.
2. The defense. Over 6 games, the Jets allowed 5.4 points to their opponent's WR3. The league average for that slot is 4.4, so that is +22%.
3. Trusting small samples less. With 6 defensive games, only 67% of the gap is applied, capped at +/-30%. That gives a +15% adjustment (x1.15).
4. Result. 3.0 x 1.15 = 3.4. Switching slots only changes step 2 and 3: the player's own numbers stay the same, but each slot faces a different defensive average.
It is a statistical model, not knowledge of injuries, game script or weather.
Chance to score
Type a point total to see how likely Jalen Tolbert is to reach it as a WR3.
Why this percentage?
The projection (3.4) is the middle of the range. Fantasy scores swing a lot from game to game, so the model spreads possible scores around it by about 2.1 points, leaning on Jalen Tolbert's own game-to-game swings once there are several games (and on typical WR swings before that).
Scores are modelled as right-skewed, since a big game is possible but a very negative one is not. The percentage is the share of that spread at or above 3.
With only 2 games of history, treat this as a rough gauge. It gets sharper as the season goes on. It is never lower than 1% or higher than 99%.
InsightsPlain-English takeaways from the table
- WR3s have averaged 3.0 receptions, 24.2 receiving yards and 0.0 receiving TDs against the Jets across 6 games.
- The Jets allow 5.4 PPR points to WR3s, +22% versus the league average of 4.4 (ranked 9 of 32, where 1 is most generous). That is a favorable matchup.
- 0 of 6 games reached 10+ PPR points. Scores range from 2.6 to 8.9 (median 5.3).
- WR3s scored a touchdown in 0 of 6 games (0%).
Insights are generated by rules from the table above and recalculate every week.