Trey McBride
TE
Arizona Cardinals
- Teammate Michael Wilson (a top target) is questionable.
- Teammate Kendrick Bourne (a top target) is on IR, so McBride may see more targets.
A hurt top target or lead back nudges the projection up a little, since their work tends to shift to teammates. QB and offensive-line flags are shown for context but do not change the number.
This is how TEs have played against the Lions in the 2026 season.
TE1 = the highest-scoring TE against Lions in each game, not a fixed depth-chart spot.
| Wk | Team | Player | Tgt | Rec | ReYd | ReTD | FPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  NO | Juwan Johnson | 7 | 3 | 54 | 1 | 14.4 |
| 2 |  BUF | Dalton Kincaid | 8 | 7 | 95 | 1 | 22.5 |
| 3 |  NYJ | Kenyon Sadiq | 8 | 7 | 105 | 1 | 23.5 |
| 4 |  CAR | Darren Waller | 6 | 3 | 36 | 0 | 6.6 |
| Average | 7.3 | 5.0 | 72.5 | 0.8 | 16.8 | ||
| Median | 7.5 | 5.0 | 74.5 | 1.0 | 18.4 | ||
| High | 8 | 7 | 105 | 1 | 23.5 | ||
| Low | 6 | 3 | 36 | 0 | 6.6 | ||
Averages are raw, outliers are never removed.
How Trey McBride should do vs the LionsSeason log, the group you pick, and a projection
Season so far, compared with what the group you pick below has done against the Lions, plus a projection for this game.
What is this table?
Rows at the top are every game Trey McBride has played this season, using the same stat columns as the table above.
Compare against picks which group of Lions opponents to line them up with: the best TE they faced in each game (1), the second best (2), the third best (3), or all of the top three. Nobody knows which slot Trey McBride will land in this week, so this is your call, not a guess.
Lions avg is the average line of that group. Difference is that minus Trey McBride's own average: green means the defense gives that slot more than Trey McBride usually produces.
Projected is Trey McBride's recent-weighted average scaled by how generous the Lions were to the slot you picked. Change the slot and the projected points change, because each slot has a different matchup adjustment. Picking Top 3 uses the usual-role projection.
| Wk | Opp | Tgt | Rec | ReYd | ReTD | FPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | LAC | 13 | 9 | 95 | 1 | 24.5 |
| 2 | SEA | 10 | 8 | 41 | 1 | 18.1 |
| 3 | SF | 11 | 9 | 75 | 0 | 16.5 |
| 4 | NYG | 12 | 7 | 31 | 0 | 10.1 |
| 5 | DET | 10 | 9 | 66 | 1 | 21.6 |
| 6 | LA | 9 | 7 | 53 | 0 | 12.3 |
| 7 | DEN | 13 | 10 | 111 | 1 | 27.1 |
| 8 | DAL | 8 | 7 | 72 | 1 | 20.2 |
| McBride avg | 10.8 | 8.3 | 68.0 | 0.6 | 18.8 | |
| Lions TE1 avg | 7.3 | 5.0 | 72.5 | 0.8 | 16.8 | |
| Difference | -3.5 | -3.3 | +4.5 | +0.1 | -2.1 | |
Difference is what the defense allows minus what McBride averages (green = defense gives up more). Projected stats scale the player's averages by the matchup adjustment, so they are a rough guide.
Prediction & chance to scoreTrey McBride vs the Lions
Prediction for Trey McBride
Nobody knows which slot Trey McBride will land in this week, so pick the one you expect. The projection changes because each slot faces a different average from the Lions.
I predict about 22.0 points for Trey McBride if playing as a TE1. Trey McBride has averaged 17.3 over 4 games, and the Lions have given up 16.8 to TE1s (+63% vs the league average of 10.3).
How this projection is built
1. The player. Trey McBride scored: Wk 1 24.5, Wk 2 18.1, Wk 3 16.5, Wk 4 10.1. Average 17.3; weighted toward recent games it is 16.9.
2. The defense. Over 4 games, the Lions allowed 16.8 points to their opponent's TE1. The league average for that slot is 10.3, so that is +63%.
3. Trusting small samples less. With 4 defensive games, only 57% of the gap is applied, capped at +/-30%. That gives a +30% adjustment (x1.30).
4. Result. 16.9 x 1.30 = 22.0. Switching slots only changes step 2 and 3: the player's own numbers stay the same, but each slot faces a different defensive average.
It is a statistical model, not knowledge of injuries, game script or weather.
Chance to score
Type a point total to see how likely Trey McBride is to reach it as a TE1.
Why this percentage?
The projection (22.0) is the middle of the range. Fantasy scores swing a lot from game to game, so the model spreads possible scores around it by about 8.8 points, leaning on Trey McBride's own game-to-game swings once there are several games (and on typical TE swings before that).
Scores are modelled as right-skewed, since a big game is possible but a very negative one is not. The percentage is the share of that spread at or above 22.
With only 4 games of history, treat this as a rough gauge. It gets sharper as the season goes on. It is never lower than 1% or higher than 99%.
InsightsPlain-English takeaways from the table
- TE1s have averaged 5.0 receptions, 72.5 receiving yards and 0.8 receiving TDs against the Lions across 4 games.
- The Lions allow 16.8 PPR points to TE1s, +63% versus the league average of 10.3 (ranked 1 of 32, where 1 is most generous). That is a favorable matchup.
- Outlier: Week 3, Kenyon Sadiq (23.5 pts, 105 yds) sits far above the other games and pulls the averages up. Average with it vs without it: pts 16.8 vs 14.5; yds 72.5 vs 61.7. The table above keeps the raw averages.
- Outlier: Week 4, Darren Waller (6.6 pts) sits far below the other games and drags the averages down. Average with it vs without it: pts 16.8 vs 20.1. The table above keeps the raw averages.
- 3 of 4 games reached 7+ PPR points. Scores range from 6.6 to 23.5 (median 18.4).
- Every TE1 in the sample cleared 30 receiving yards.
- TE1s scored a touchdown in 3 of 4 games (75%).
Insights are generated by rules from the table above and recalculate every week.