KaVontae Turpin
WR
Dallas CowboysQ
- Teammate George Pickens (a top target) is questionable.
A hurt top target or lead back nudges the projection up a little, since their work tends to shift to teammates. QB and offensive-line flags are shown for context but do not change the number.
This is how WRs have played against the Commanders in the 2026 season.
WR3 = the third-highest-scoring WR against Commanders in each game, not a fixed depth-chart spot.
| Wk | Team | Player | Tgt | Rec | ReYd | ReTD | FPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  PHI | Makai Lemon | 4 | 3 | -5 | 0 | 2.5 |
| Average | 4.0 | 3.0 | -5.0 | 0.0 | 2.5 | ||
| Median | 4.0 | 3.0 | -5.0 | 0.0 | 2.5 | ||
| High | 4 | 3 | -5 | 0 | 2.5 | ||
| Low | 4 | 3 | -5 | 0 | 2.5 | ||
Averages are raw, outliers are never removed.
How KaVontae Turpin should do vs the CommandersSeason log, the group you pick, and a projection
Season so far, compared with what the group you pick below has done against the Commanders, plus a projection for this game.
What is this table?
Rows at the top are every game KaVontae Turpin has played this season, using the same stat columns as the table above.
Compare against picks which group of Commanders opponents to line them up with: the best WR they faced in each game (1), the second best (2), the third best (3), or all of the top three. Nobody knows which slot KaVontae Turpin will land in this week, so this is your call, not a guess.
Commanders avg is the average line of that group. Difference is that minus KaVontae Turpin's own average: green means the defense gives that slot more than KaVontae Turpin usually produces.
Projected is KaVontae Turpin's recent-weighted average scaled by how generous the Commanders were to the slot you picked. Change the slot and the projected points change, because each slot has a different matchup adjustment. Picking Top 3 uses the usual-role projection.
| Wk | Opp | Tgt | Rec | ReYd | ReTD | FPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | NYG | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 | 1.8 |
| 3 | BAL | 2 | 1 | 9 | 0 | 8.8 |
| 5 | TB | 4 | 2 | 22 | 0 | 4.2 |
| Turpin avg | 2.3 | 1.3 | 13.0 | 0.0 | 4.9 | |
| Commanders WR3 avg | 4.0 | 3.0 | -5.0 | 0.0 | 2.5 | |
| Difference | +1.7 | +1.7 | -18.0 | +0.0 | -2.4 | |
Difference is what the defense allows minus what Turpin averages (green = defense gives up more). Projected stats scale the player's averages by the matchup adjustment, so they are a rough guide.
Prediction & chance to scoreKaVontae Turpin vs the Commanders
Prediction for KaVontae Turpin
Nobody knows which slot KaVontae Turpin will land in this week, so pick the one you expect. The projection changes because each slot faces a different average from the Commanders.
I predict about 3.9 points for KaVontae Turpin if playing as a WR3. KaVontae Turpin has averaged 1.8 over 1 game, and the Commanders have given up 2.5 to WR3s (-43% vs the league average of 4.4).
How this projection is built
1. The player. KaVontae Turpin scored: Wk 1 1.8. Average 1.8; weighted toward recent games it is 4.4.
2. The defense. Over 1 game, the Commanders allowed 2.5 points to their opponent's WR3. The league average for that slot is 4.4, so that is -43%.
3. Trusting small samples less. With 1 defensive game, only 25% of the gap is applied, capped at +/-30%. That gives a -11% adjustment (x0.89).
4. Result. 4.4 x 0.89 = 3.9. Switching slots only changes step 2 and 3: the player's own numbers stay the same, but each slot faces a different defensive average.
It is a statistical model, not knowledge of injuries, game script or weather.
Chance to score
Type a point total to see how likely KaVontae Turpin is to reach it as a WR3.
Why this percentage?
The projection (3.9) is the middle of the range. Fantasy scores swing a lot from game to game, so the model spreads possible scores around it by about 2.3 points, leaning on KaVontae Turpin's own game-to-game swings once there are several games (and on typical WR swings before that).
Scores are modelled as right-skewed, since a big game is possible but a very negative one is not. The percentage is the share of that spread at or above 4.
With only 1 game of history, treat this as a rough gauge. It gets sharper as the season goes on. It is never lower than 1% or higher than 99%.
InsightsPlain-English takeaways from the table
- WR3s have averaged 3.0 receptions, -5.0 receiving yards and 0.0 receiving TDs against the Commanders across 1 game.
- The Commanders allow 2.5 PPR points to WR3s, -43% versus the league average of 4.4 (ranked 24 of 32, where 1 is most generous). That is a tough matchup.
- WR3s scored a touchdown in 0 of 1 games (0%).
- Small sample: only 1 game so far. Treat these numbers as directional, not settled.
Insights are generated by rules from the table above and recalculate every week.