Jake Ferguson
TE
Dallas CowboysQ
- Teammate George Pickens (a top target) is questionable.
A hurt top target or lead back nudges the projection up a little, since their work tends to shift to teammates. QB and offensive-line flags are shown for context but do not change the number.
This is how TEs have played against the Texans in the 2026 season.
TE1 = the highest-scoring TE against Texans in each game, not a fixed depth-chart spot.
| Wk | Team | Player | Tgt | Rec | ReYd | ReTD | FPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  BUF | Dalton Kincaid | 6 | 5 | 130 | 0 | 18.0 |
| 2 |  CIN | Erick All | 3 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 2.5 |
| 3 |  IND | Tyler Warren | 10 | 9 | 55 | 0 | 14.7 |
| Average | 6.3 | 5.3 | 63.3 | 0.0 | 11.7 | ||
| Median | 6.0 | 5.0 | 55.0 | 0.0 | 14.7 | ||
| High | 10 | 9 | 130 | 0 | 18.0 | ||
| Low | 3 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 2.5 | ||
Averages are raw, outliers are never removed.
How Jake Ferguson should do vs the TexansSeason log, the group you pick, and a projection
Season so far, compared with what the group you pick below has done against the Texans, plus a projection for this game.
What is this table?
Rows at the top are every game Jake Ferguson has played this season, using the same stat columns as the table above.
Compare against picks which group of Texans opponents to line them up with: the best TE they faced in each game (1), the second best (2), the third best (3), or all of the top three. Nobody knows which slot Jake Ferguson will land in this week, so this is your call, not a guess.
Texans avg is the average line of that group. Difference is that minus Jake Ferguson's own average: green means the defense gives that slot more than Jake Ferguson usually produces.
Projected is Jake Ferguson's recent-weighted average scaled by how generous the Texans were to the slot you picked. Change the slot and the projected points change, because each slot has a different matchup adjustment. Picking Top 3 uses the usual-role projection.
| Wk | Opp | Tgt | Rec | ReYd | ReTD | FPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | NYG | 2 | 2 | 6 | 0 | 2.6 |
| 2 | WAS | 4 | 4 | 43 | 2 | 20.3 |
| 3 | BAL | 5 | 3 | 23 | 1 | 9.3 |
| 4 | HOU | 4 | 3 | 11 | 0 | 4.1 |
| 5 | TB | 6 | 3 | 19 | 0 | 4.9 |
| 6 | GB | 3 | 2 | 13 | 0 | 3.3 |
| 7 | PHI | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.0 |
| Ferguson avg | 3.6 | 2.4 | 16.4 | 0.4 | 6.4 | |
| Texans TE1 avg | 6.3 | 5.3 | 63.3 | 0.0 | 11.7 | |
| Difference | +2.8 | +2.9 | +46.9 | -0.4 | +5.4 | |
Difference is what the defense allows minus what Ferguson averages (green = defense gives up more). Projected stats scale the player's averages by the matchup adjustment, so they are a rough guide.
Prediction & chance to scoreJake Ferguson vs the Texans
Prediction for Jake Ferguson
Nobody knows which slot Jake Ferguson will land in this week, so pick the one you expect. The projection changes because each slot faces a different average from the Texans.
I predict about 11.8 points for Jake Ferguson if playing as a TE1. Jake Ferguson has averaged 10.7 over 3 games, and the Texans have given up 11.7 to TE1s (+12% vs the league average of 10.5).
How this projection is built
1. The player. Jake Ferguson scored: Wk 1 2.6, Wk 2 20.3, Wk 3 9.3. Average 10.7; weighted toward recent games it is 11.1.
2. The defense. Over 3 games, the Texans allowed 11.7 points to their opponent's TE1. The league average for that slot is 10.5, so that is +12%.
3. Trusting small samples less. With 3 defensive games, only 50% of the gap is applied, capped at +/-30%. That gives a +6% adjustment (x1.06).
4. Result. 11.1 x 1.06 = 11.8. Switching slots only changes step 2 and 3: the player's own numbers stay the same, but each slot faces a different defensive average.
It is a statistical model, not knowledge of injuries, game script or weather.
Chance to score
Type a point total to see how likely Jake Ferguson is to reach it as a TE1.
Why this percentage?
The projection (11.8) is the middle of the range. Fantasy scores swing a lot from game to game, so the model spreads possible scores around it by about 8.0 points, leaning on Jake Ferguson's own game-to-game swings once there are several games (and on typical TE swings before that).
Scores are modelled as right-skewed, since a big game is possible but a very negative one is not. The percentage is the share of that spread at or above 12.
With only 3 games of history, treat this as a rough gauge. It gets sharper as the season goes on. It is never lower than 1% or higher than 99%.
InsightsPlain-English takeaways from the table
- TE1s have averaged 5.3 receptions, 63.3 receiving yards and 0.0 receiving TDs against the Texans across 3 games.
- The Texans allow 11.7 PPR points to TE1s, +12% versus the league average of 10.5 (ranked 13 of 32, where 1 is most generous). That is a favorable matchup.
- Outlier: Week 2, Erick All (2.5 pts, 2 rec, 5 yds) sits far below the other games and drags the averages down. Average with it vs without it: pts 11.7 vs 16.4; rec 5.3 vs 7.0; yds 63.3 vs 92.5. The table above keeps the raw averages.
- Outlier: Week 1, Dalton Kincaid (18.0 pts, 130 yds) sits far above the other games and pulls the averages up. Average with it vs without it: pts 11.7 vs 8.6; yds 63.3 vs 30.0. The table above keeps the raw averages.
- 2 of 3 games reached 7+ PPR points. Scores range from 2.5 to 18.0 (median 14.7).
- TE1s scored a touchdown in 0 of 3 games (0%).
Insights are generated by rules from the table above and recalculate every week.