Charlie Kolar
TE
Los Angeles Chargers
This is how TEs have played against the Chiefs in the 2026 season.
TE1 = the highest-scoring TE against Chiefs in each game, not a fixed depth-chart spot.
| Wk | Team | Player | Tgt | Rec | ReYd | ReTD | FPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  DEN | Evan Engram | 5 | 4 | 43 | 1 | 14.3 |
| 2 |  IND | Tyler Warren | 7 | 6 | 21 | 1 | 14.4 |
| 3 |  MIA | Greg Dulcich | 7 | 5 | 55 | 0 | 10.5 |
| 4 |  LV | Brock Bowers | 11 | 6 | 86 | 1 | 20.6 |
| Average | 7.5 | 5.3 | 51.3 | 0.8 | 15.0 | ||
| Median | 7.0 | 5.5 | 49.0 | 1.0 | 14.4 | ||
| High | 11 | 6 | 86 | 1 | 20.6 | ||
| Low | 5 | 4 | 21 | 0 | 10.5 | ||
Averages are raw, outliers are never removed.
How Charlie Kolar should do vs the ChiefsSeason log, the group you pick, and a projection
Season so far, compared with what the group you pick below has done against the Chiefs, plus a projection for this game.
What is this table?
Rows at the top are every game Charlie Kolar has played this season, using the same stat columns as the table above.
Compare against picks which group of Chiefs opponents to line them up with: the best TE they faced in each game (1), the second best (2), the third best (3), or all of the top three. Nobody knows which slot Charlie Kolar will land in this week, so this is your call, not a guess.
Chiefs avg is the average line of that group. Difference is that minus Charlie Kolar's own average: green means the defense gives that slot more than Charlie Kolar usually produces.
Projected is Charlie Kolar's recent-weighted average scaled by how generous the Chiefs were to the slot you picked. Change the slot and the projected points change, because each slot has a different matchup adjustment. Picking Top 3 uses the usual-role projection.
| Wk | Opp | Tgt | Rec | ReYd | ReTD | FPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | LV | 3 | 3 | 21 | 0 | 5.1 |
| 5 | DEN | 4 | 3 | 37 | 0 | 4.7 |
| 6 | KC | 6 | 3 | 20 | 0 | 5.0 |
| 8 | LA | 4 | 1 | 20 | 0 | 3.0 |
| Kolar avg | 4.3 | 2.5 | 24.5 | 0.0 | 4.5 | |
| Chiefs TE1 avg | 7.5 | 5.3 | 51.3 | 0.8 | 15.0 | |
| Difference | +3.3 | +2.8 | +26.8 | +0.8 | +10.5 | |
Difference is what the defense allows minus what Kolar averages (green = defense gives up more). Projected stats scale the player's averages by the matchup adjustment, so they are a rough guide.
Prediction & chance to scoreCharlie Kolar vs the Chiefs
Prediction for Charlie Kolar
Nobody knows which slot Charlie Kolar will land in this week, so pick the one you expect. The projection changes because each slot faces a different average from the Chiefs.
I predict about 5.1 points for Charlie Kolar if playing as a TE1. Charlie Kolar has averaged 4.9 over 2 games, and the Chiefs have given up 15.0 to TE1s (+44% vs the league average of 10.4).
How this projection is built
1. The player. Charlie Kolar scored: Wk 2 5.1, Wk 5 4.7. Average 4.9; weighted toward recent games it is 4.1.
2. The defense. Over 4 games, the Chiefs allowed 15.0 points to their opponent's TE1. The league average for that slot is 10.4, so that is +44%.
3. Trusting small samples less. With 4 defensive games, only 57% of the gap is applied, capped at +/-30%. That gives a +25% adjustment (x1.25).
4. Result. 4.1 x 1.25 = 5.1. Switching slots only changes step 2 and 3: the player's own numbers stay the same, but each slot faces a different defensive average.
It is a statistical model, not knowledge of injuries, game script or weather.
Chance to score
Type a point total to see how likely Charlie Kolar is to reach it as a TE1.
Why this percentage?
The projection (5.1) is the middle of the range. Fantasy scores swing a lot from game to game, so the model spreads possible scores around it by about 3.1 points, leaning on Charlie Kolar's own game-to-game swings once there are several games (and on typical TE swings before that).
Scores are modelled as right-skewed, since a big game is possible but a very negative one is not. The percentage is the share of that spread at or above 5.
With only 2 games of history, treat this as a rough gauge. It gets sharper as the season goes on. It is never lower than 1% or higher than 99%.
InsightsPlain-English takeaways from the table
- TE1s have averaged 5.3 receptions, 51.3 receiving yards and 0.8 receiving TDs against the Chiefs across 4 games.
- The Chiefs allow 15.0 PPR points to TE1s, +44% versus the league average of 10.4 (ranked 6 of 32, where 1 is most generous). That is a favorable matchup.
- Outlier: Week 4, Brock Bowers (86 yds) sits far above the other games and pulls the averages up. Average with it vs without it: yds 51.3 vs 39.7. The table above keeps the raw averages.
- Outlier: Week 2, Tyler Warren (21 yds) sits far below the other games and drags the averages down. Average with it vs without it: yds 51.3 vs 61.3. The table above keeps the raw averages.
- 4 of 4 games reached 7+ PPR points. Scores range from 10.5 to 20.6 (median 14.4).
- TE1s scored a touchdown in 3 of 4 games (75%).
Insights are generated by rules from the table above and recalculate every week.