Cade Otton
TE
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
This is how TEs have played against the Steelers in the 2026 season.
TE1 = the highest-scoring TE against Steelers in each game, not a fixed depth-chart spot.
| Wk | Team | Player | Tgt | Rec | ReYd | ReTD | FPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  ATL | Kyle Pitts | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.0 |
| 2 |  NE | Hunter Henry | 5 | 3 | 40 | 0 | 7.0 |
| 3 |  CIN | Mike Gesicki | 3 | 3 | 37 | 1 | 12.7 |
| 4 |  CLE | Harold Fannin Jr. | 5 | 3 | 27 | 1 | 11.7 |
| 5 |  IND | Tyler Warren | 9 | 7 | 83 | 0 | 21.4 |
| Average | 4.6 | 3.2 | 37.4 | 0.4 | 10.6 | ||
| Median | 5.0 | 3.0 | 37.0 | 0.0 | 11.7 | ||
| High | 9 | 7 | 83 | 1 | 21.4 | ||
| Low | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.0 | ||
Averages are raw, outliers are never removed.
How Cade Otton should do vs the SteelersSeason log, the group you pick, and a projection
Season so far, compared with what the group you pick below has done against the Steelers, plus a projection for this game.
What is this table?
Rows at the top are every game Cade Otton has played this season, using the same stat columns as the table above.
Compare against picks which group of Steelers opponents to line them up with: the best TE they faced in each game (1), the second best (2), the third best (3), or all of the top three. Nobody knows which slot Cade Otton will land in this week, so this is your call, not a guess.
Steelers avg is the average line of that group. Difference is that minus Cade Otton's own average: green means the defense gives that slot more than Cade Otton usually produces.
Projected is Cade Otton's recent-weighted average scaled by how generous the Steelers were to the slot you picked. Change the slot and the projected points change, because each slot has a different matchup adjustment. Picking Top 3 uses the usual-role projection.
| Wk | Opp | Tgt | Rec | ReYd | ReTD | FPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | CIN | 5 | 3 | 26 | 0 | 5.6 |
| 2 | CLE | 6 | 5 | 38 | 0 | 8.8 |
| 3 | MIN | 6 | 3 | 56 | 0 | 8.6 |
| 4 | GB | 6 | 4 | 37 | 0 | 7.7 |
| 5 | DAL | 4 | 3 | 25 | 0 | 5.5 |
| 6 | PIT | 2 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 1.4 |
| 7 | CAR | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.0 |
| Otton avg | 4.3 | 2.7 | 26.6 | 0.0 | 5.4 | |
| Steelers TE1 avg | 4.6 | 3.2 | 37.4 | 0.4 | 10.6 | |
| Difference | +0.3 | +0.5 | +10.8 | +0.4 | +5.2 | |
Difference is what the defense allows minus what Otton averages (green = defense gives up more). Projected stats scale the player's averages by the matchup adjustment, so they are a rough guide.
Prediction & chance to scoreCade Otton vs the Steelers
Prediction for Cade Otton
Nobody knows which slot Cade Otton will land in this week, so pick the one you expect. The projection changes because each slot faces a different average from the Steelers.
I predict about 7.5 points for Cade Otton if playing as a TE1. Cade Otton has averaged 7.2 over 5 games, and the Steelers have given up 10.6 to TE1s (+1% vs the league average of 10.4).
How this projection is built
1. The player. Cade Otton scored: Wk 1 5.6, Wk 2 8.8, Wk 3 8.6, Wk 4 7.7, Wk 5 5.5. Average 7.2; weighted toward recent games it is 7.4.
2. The defense. Over 5 games, the Steelers allowed 10.6 points to their opponent's TE1. The league average for that slot is 10.4, so that is +1%.
3. Trusting small samples less. With 5 defensive games, only 63% of the gap is applied, capped at +/-30%. That gives a +1% adjustment (x1.01).
4. Result. 7.4 x 1.01 = 7.5. Switching slots only changes step 2 and 3: the player's own numbers stay the same, but each slot faces a different defensive average.
It is a statistical model, not knowledge of injuries, game script or weather.
Chance to score
Type a point total to see how likely Cade Otton is to reach it as a TE1.
Why this percentage?
The projection (7.5) is the middle of the range. Fantasy scores swing a lot from game to game, so the model spreads possible scores around it by about 3.0 points, leaning on Cade Otton's own game-to-game swings once there are several games (and on typical TE swings before that).
Scores are modelled as right-skewed, since a big game is possible but a very negative one is not. The percentage is the share of that spread at or above 7.
With only 5 games of history, treat this as a rough gauge. It gets sharper as the season goes on. It is never lower than 1% or higher than 99%.
InsightsPlain-English takeaways from the table
- TE1s have averaged 3.2 receptions, 37.4 receiving yards and 0.4 receiving TDs against the Steelers across 5 games.
- The Steelers allow 10.6 PPR points to TE1s, +1% versus the league average of 10.4 (ranked 14 of 32, where 1 is most generous). That is a near-average matchup.
- Outlier: Week 5, Tyler Warren (21.4 pts, 7 rec, 83 yds) sits far above the other games and pulls the averages up. Average with it vs without it: pts 10.6 vs 7.8; rec 3.2 vs 2.3; yds 37.4 vs 26.0. The table above keeps the raw averages.
- Outlier: Week 1, Kyle Pitts (0.0 pts, 0 rec, 0 yds) sits far below the other games and drags the averages down. Average with it vs without it: pts 10.6 vs 13.2; rec 3.2 vs 4.0; yds 37.4 vs 46.8. The table above keeps the raw averages.
- 4 of 5 games reached 7+ PPR points. Scores range from 0.0 to 21.4 (median 11.7).
- TE1s scored a touchdown in 3 of 5 games (60%).
Insights are generated by rules from the table above and recalculate every week.