Kenneth Walker III
RB
Kansas City Chiefs▼ Cold
This is how RBs have played against the Broncos in the 2026 season.
RB1 = the highest-scoring RB against Broncos in each game, not a fixed depth-chart spot.
| Wk | Team | Player | Car | RuYd | RuTD | Tgt | Rec | ReYd | ReTD | FPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | KC | Kenneth Walker III | 23 | 173 | 1 | 6 | 3 | 18 | 1 | 34.1 |
| 2 |  JAX | Bhayshul Tuten | 13 | 65 | 1 | 2 | 2 | -3 | 0 | 14.2 |
| 3 |  LA | Kyren Williams | 15 | 88 | 0 | 7 | 6 | 70 | 0 | 21.8 |
| 4 |  SF | Christian McCaffrey | 15 | 52 | 1 | 5 | 3 | 18 | 0 | 16.0 |
| 5 |  LAC | Kimani Vidal | 8 | 57 | 1 | 2 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 12.6 |
| 6 |  SEA | George Holani | 5 | 20 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8.0 |
| 7 |  ARI | Bam Knight | 7 | 48 | 0 | 5 | 3 | 15 | 0 | 9.3 |
| Average | 12.3 | 71.9 | 0.7 | 3.9 | 2.6 | 16.7 | 0.1 | 16.6 | ||
| Median | 13.0 | 57.0 | 1.0 | 5.0 | 3.0 | 15.0 | 0.0 | 14.2 | ||
| High | 23 | 173 | 1 | 7 | 6 | 70 | 1 | 34.1 | ||
| Low | 5 | 20 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -3 | 0 | 8.0 | ||
Averages are raw, outliers are never removed.
How Kenneth Walker III should do vs the BroncosSeason log, the group you pick, and a projection
Season so far, compared with what the group you pick below has done against the Broncos, plus a projection for this game.
What is this table?
Rows at the top are every game Kenneth Walker III has played this season, using the same stat columns as the table above.
Compare against picks which group of Broncos opponents to line them up with: the best RB they faced in each game (1), the second best (2), the third best (3), or all of the top three. Nobody knows which slot Kenneth Walker III will land in this week, so this is your call, not a guess.
Broncos avg is the average line of that group. Difference is that minus Kenneth Walker III's own average: green means the defense gives that slot more than Kenneth Walker III usually produces.
Projected is Kenneth Walker III's recent-weighted average scaled by how generous the Broncos were to the slot you picked. Change the slot and the projected points change, because each slot has a different matchup adjustment. Picking Top 3 uses the usual-role projection.
| Wk | Opp | Car | RuYd | RuTD | Tgt | Rec | ReYd | ReTD | FPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | DEN | 23 | 173 | 1 | 6 | 3 | 18 | 1 | 34.1 |
| 2 | IND | 24 | 117 | 0 | 10 | 6 | 61 | 0 | 23.8 |
| 3 | MIA | 18 | 70 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 21.3 |
| 4 | LV | 22 | 177 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 30.9 |
| 6 | LAC | 19 | 128 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 11 | 0 | 27.9 |
| 7 | SEA | 14 | 36 | 0 | 5 | 4 | 21 | 0 | 9.7 |
| 8 | DEN | 21 | 69 | 0 | 5 | 4 | 15 | 0 | 12.4 |
| III avg | 20.1 | 110.0 | 0.9 | 4.6 | 3.1 | 18.7 | 0.3 | 22.9 | |
| Broncos RB1 avg | 12.3 | 71.9 | 0.7 | 3.9 | 2.6 | 16.7 | 0.1 | 16.6 | |
| Difference | -7.9 | -38.1 | -0.1 | -0.7 | -0.6 | -2.0 | -0.1 | -6.3 | |
Difference is what the defense allows minus what III averages (green = defense gives up more). Projected stats scale the player's averages by the matchup adjustment, so they are a rough guide.
Prediction & chance to scoreKenneth Walker III vs the Broncos
Prediction for Kenneth Walker III
Nobody knows which slot Kenneth Walker III will land in this week, so pick the one you expect. The projection changes because each slot faces a different average from the Broncos.
I predict about 20.3 points for Kenneth Walker III if playing as a RB1. Kenneth Walker III has averaged 24.6 over 6 games, and the Broncos have given up 16.6 to RB1s (+4% vs the league average of 16.0).
How this projection is built
1. The player. Kenneth Walker III scored: Wk 1 34.1, Wk 2 23.8, Wk 3 21.3, Wk 4 30.9, Wk 6 27.9, Wk 7 9.7. Average 24.6; weighted toward recent games it is 19.8.
2. The defense. Over 7 games, the Broncos allowed 16.6 points to their opponent's RB1. The league average for that slot is 16.0, so that is +4%.
3. Trusting small samples less. With 7 defensive games, only 70% of the gap is applied, capped at +/-30%. That gives a +3% adjustment (x1.03).
4. Result. 19.8 x 1.03 = 20.3. Switching slots only changes step 2 and 3: the player's own numbers stay the same, but each slot faces a different defensive average.
It is a statistical model, not knowledge of injuries, game script or weather.
Chance to score
Type a point total to see how likely Kenneth Walker III is to reach it as a RB1.
Why this percentage?
The projection (20.3) is the middle of the range. Fantasy scores swing a lot from game to game, so the model spreads possible scores around it by about 8.7 points, leaning on Kenneth Walker III's own game-to-game swings once there are several games (and on typical RB swings before that).
Scores are modelled as right-skewed, since a big game is possible but a very negative one is not. The percentage is the share of that spread at or above 20.
With only 6 games of history, treat this as a rough gauge. It gets sharper as the season goes on. It is never lower than 1% or higher than 99%.
InsightsPlain-English takeaways from the table
- RB1s have averaged 12.3 carries, 71.9 rushing yards and 2.6 receptions against the Broncos across 7 games.
- The Broncos allow 16.6 PPR points to RB1s, +4% versus the league average of 16.0 (ranked 13 of 32, where 1 is most generous). That is a near-average matchup.
- Outlier: Week 1, Kenneth Walker III (34.1 pts, 23 car, 173 rush yds) sits far above the other games and pulls the averages up. Average with it vs without it: pts 16.6 vs 13.6; car 12.3 vs 10.5; rush yds 71.9 vs 55.0. The table above keeps the raw averages.
- Outlier: Week 6, George Holani (5 car, 20 rush yds) sits far below the other games and drags the averages down. Average with it vs without it: car 12.3 vs 13.5; rush yds 71.9 vs 80.5. The table above keeps the raw averages.
- 5 of 7 games reached 10+ PPR points. Scores range from 8.0 to 34.1 (median 14.2).
- RB1s scored a touchdown in 5 of 7 games (71%).
Insights are generated by rules from the table above and recalculate every week.